Look, it was Sam Darnold versus Drake Maye. If you want a quick and easy explanation for why there was a dip in wagering on this year’s Super Bowl in Las Vegas, you could start there.
The Big Game was a little shorter on star power on the field, with no disrespect intended (but probably given anyway) to the two teams that earned the right to be there.
Bettors might have noticed.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported earlier this week that $133.8 million was wagered with the state's sportsbooks on this year's Super Bowl. It was the weakest handle for the state since 2016, when $132.5 million was bet on the Broncos and Panthers.
- Nevada sportsbooks saw Super Bowl betting drop to $133.8 million, the lowest handle since 2016.
- Industry analysts reported softer betting nationwide.
- Meanwhile, prediction platforms like Kalshi and PrizePicks reported record Super Bowl trading volumes, with estimates that prediction markets now capture about 5% of legal sports betting handle.
Nevada’s figures included both in-person and online wagering, as well as bets that were made on the outcome before Super Bowl Sunday itself (i.e., someone with a futures bet on the Pats to win). So, the hunt is on for some explanations.
You could point to a 7.5% decline in overall visitor volume to Vegas during 2025, a trend which may be continuing. Maybe more people just didn't make the trip this year for the Big Game.
You could even point to the Nevada sports betting requirement that bettors must sign up for online sportsbook accounts at physical casino properties.
We are never betting that together
In short, you have to put a bit of effort into betting on the Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
“We note Nevada is a unique market with inferior product vs. the rest of the country, and handle numbers may reflect Vegas weakness,” research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming wrote this week. “The Super Bowl was also a less marquee matchup this year.”
The Swift factor could have been, well, a factor. The NFL reported that viewership of this year’s Super Bowl trailed that of Super Bowl LIX in 2025.
If you dare to go there, another reason behind Nevada’s slower Super Bowl could be prediction markets, which reported much success for themselves on the Big Game.
Kalshi, for example, reported more than $1 billion in total trading volume tied to this year’s Super Bowl (including “futures” and novelty wagering), which the prediction market operator said was up 2,700% from the 2025 edition.
To be fair, this was just Kalshi's second Super Bowl facilitating wagering on the Big Game. The comps were pretty low for the prediction market operator.
Furthermore, trading volume and sportsbook handle are not the same. The former would count a penny bet (by buying a one-cent contract) as a dollar of volume. The latter reflects purely what bettors have put up, not the "house" or their counter-party.
Nevada regulators have also had success in pushing back on the federally regulated exchanges through the courts, winning some significant decisions that have forced operators to curb their activities in the Silver State.
Prediction markets should not be able to circumvent state gaming laws. Consumers deserve transparency, accountability, and protection against such predatory practices.
— Dina Titus (@repdinatitus) February 10, 2026
That is why I introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act to prevent entities from engaging in… pic.twitter.com/VnVGEXQuGc
However, there’s still the possibility that prediction markets swiped a little bit of business from Nevada's books.
It’s also possible that prediction market users in other states, who may have once considered a trip to Vegas on Super Bowl Sunday, stayed home and bet on the exchanges instead. That could include bettors in California, where the game was played.
EKG said that “channel checks confirmed softer handle in other states, and we believe there is some indication that prediction markets are nibbling into overall handle.”
The nibbles could be hard to gauge, but they may not be nothing, either. Citizens stock analyst Jordan Bender wrote in January that the investment bank estimates approximately 5% of legal sports betting handle is now flowing to prediction markets, or around $8 billion of wagering on an annual basis.
Kalshi wasn’t alone in declaring this year’s Super Bowl a success for itself, either.
PrizePicks said Super Bowl Sunday was the “largest day ever” for its prediction market platform, which is, granted, provided via a partnership with Kalshi (and not available in Nevada).
“Big Game Sunday is one of the most important moments on the sports calendar, and seeing players engage with Prediction Markets at this level reinforces the opportunity ahead,” PrizePicks CEO Mike Ybarra said in a statement.
