Underdogs have been printing money for NFL bettors over the last few weeks, winning outright in seven of the last eight primetime contests.
That trend continued Thursday night when the Cincinnati Bengals topped the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers 33-31. The only favorite to win in primetime since the start of the second month of the season was the Kansas City Chiefs against the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football in Week 6.
Key Takeaways
- The trend has occurred despite oddsmakers doing a near-perfect job of setting their lines.
- There is a Monday Night Football doubleheader approaching for the second straight week.
- Super Bowl odds haven’t shortened since opening.
Oddsmakers have done a near-perfect job of splitting the middle while setting their NFL odds.
Away teams covered the spread 49.5% of the time, while home teams did in 50.5% of games. Favorites covered 51.6% of lines, while underdogs did at 48.4%; and away favorites and dogs covered 51.2% and 48.1% of lines, respectively, while home favorites and dogs cashed 51.9% and 48.8% of the time, respectively.
On top of that, there have been 47 overs (50.5%) and 46 unders (49.5%) across 93 total games.
Despite the overall equality among the different demographics, one glaring trend has emerged during primetime, where the dogs have been in vogue.
"Chaos and instability have been major themes of the 2025 NFL season and that's been heavily showcased in primetime. While the run of upsets will likely come to an end sooner than later, I think we're still early enough in the season where the results from last season are still driving perceptions of both fans and bettors," said Covers NFL analyst Joe Osborne.
"We're getting to a point where the true contenders will start to separate from the pack and we'll have a much clearer picture a few weeks from now. For now though, unpredictability remains the league’s most consistent storyline."
Here’s a look at the odds and results of the last eight primetime matchups.
| Odds | Results |
|---|---|
| 49ers vs. Rams (-8.5) | 49ers 26, Rams 23 |
| Patriots vs. Bills (-8) | Patriots 23, Bills 20 |
| Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Jaguars | Chiefs 28, Jaguars 31 |
| Eagles (-7.5) vs. Giants | Eagles 17, Giants 34 |
| Lions vs. Chiefs (-2.5) | Lions 17, Chiefs 30 |
| Bills (-3.5) vs. Falcons | Bills 14, Falcons 24 |
| Bears vs. Commanders (-5.5) | Bears 25, Commanders 24 |
| Steelers (-5.5) vs. Bengals | Steelers 31, Bengals 33 |
Week 7 primetime betting trends
There are another three primetime matchups on the horizon in Week 7, including a Sunday Night Football showdown and a Monday Night Football doubleheader.
The San Francisco 49ers (4-2) will host the Atlanta Falcons (3-2) as two-point favorites on Sunday Night Football, per the latest NFL odds. The Niners are 1-1 at home, and Atlanta is coming off of a short week after taking down the Buffalo Bills on MNF. The Falcons are +110 on the moneyline.
The early game on Monday pits the Detroit Lions as -5.5 favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who beat Detroit on the road in Week 2 of last season. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has almost taken the lead in NFL MVP odds but will be without several key pieces of his offense. Tampa Bay is +200 to win outright.
The Houston Texans will visit the Seattle Seahawks in the second leg of Monday’s doubleheader. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is also on an MVP charge, but Houston played its best game of the season two weeks ago and had a bye last week. The Seahawks are -3, and the Texans are +145 on the moneyline.
Parlaying the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Texans would result in +1,443 odds at BetMGM.
Super Bowl odds remain in limbo
As a byproduct of the constant upsets in primetime and there being seemingly two-thirds of the league in the playoff hunt, Super Bowl odds haven’t shortened since the start of the season.
The Eagles opened the year at +650 to win the upcoming Super Bowl. The new leaders, the Bills and the Chiefs, are still +650 to hoist the Lombardi.
The Packers (+750), Lions (+900), and Eagles (+950) are also in close contention, before the Rams check in at +1,500.
