Could Thursday begin the biggest Thanksgiving betting week ever?
It’s certainly shaping up to be that way. Not only are there now 38 U.S. states with legal sports betting generating year-over-year handle growth, but it’s hard to find a group of matchups as good as these games, which could draw unprecedented wagering.
Key Takeaways
- Three NFL games Thursday and one Friday feature high-stakes matchups and big betting opportunities.
- Touchdown scorer markets are going to attract a lot of action given the stars playing.
- Chiefs-Cowboys could be a record-setting matchup on Thanksgiving Day.
“The pro games are great, and then we have those rivalry games on Friday and Saturday in college, which just makes this one of the biggest Thanksgiving weekends of all time,” Johnny Avello, director of sports operations at DraftKings, told Covers on Wednesday.
Sure, the Lions always play on Thanksgiving, but now they’re really good and one of the most-bet teams every week this season. They face the popular Packers in the early Thursday game that will help decide who wins the NFC North.
The Cowboys, one of the all-time most popular teams when it comes to betting and fandom, take on Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs team everyone already knows well.
Add quarterback Joe Burrow’s return to the Bengals in a division showdown with the Ravens and a Friday game between two strong NFC teams in the Bears and Eagles, and massive amounts of dollars are expected to flow through sportsbooks.
“The isolated game on Sunday (night) always does the best,” Avello said. “Now you’ve got three of those (on Thursday), so I don’t know that it’ll out-handle a Sunday, but if you throw in the Friday game, the four of them might.”
All four games will be huge for the anytime touchdown scorer and first touchdown scorer markets as well on Thursday and Friday, featuring offensive stars like CeeDee Lamb, Ja’marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, Travis Kelce, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Josh Jacobs.
| Thurs./Fri. games | DraftKings splits | BetMGM splits | FanDuel splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers-Lions (-2.5) | DET 82% bets DET 89% handle |
DET 75% bets DET 78% handle |
DET 84% bets DET 83% handle |
| Chiefs-Cowboys (+3.5) | DAL 60% bets DAL 80% handle |
KC 51% bets DAL 54% handle |
KC 62% bets KC 56% handle |
| Bengals-Ravens (-7) | CIN 56% bets CIN 77% handle |
BAL 51% bets BAL 73% handle |
CIN 58% bets CIN 65% handle |
| Bears-Eagles (-7) | CHI 58% bets CHI 53% handle |
CHI 57% bets PHI 65% handle |
CHI 56% bets PHI 58% handle |
Divisional showdown
Week 13 starts with a classic matchup with high divisional stakes. DraftKings opened with the Lions -3, but the spread has come down to +2.5 as of Wednesday.
Detroit has been one of the most-backed teams all season, and the early splits indicate that’s going to be the case again. BetMGM has seen over 75% of the tickets and handle come in on the home favorite, while DraftKings reported an even higher percentage of bets and money.
However, Avello believes the spread splits will even out some closer to game time.
“The public tends to bet favorites and put them in moneyline parlays and teasers, so I think we’ll probably need the Packers, but I don’t think it's gonna be heavily one-sided because the Packers are a good team,” Avello said. “They already beat the Lions this year.”
The total of 49 is the lowest among the three Thanksgiving games, and both BetMGM and DraftKings have seen more bets on the over but more money on the under.
Massive handle
The Cowboys might play every year on this holiday, but they don’t always draw this kind of opponent, making this quite possibly one of the most-watched games the league will feature in years.
The Chiefs haven’t had a great year, but they showed they still have life with a Week 12 win over the surprising Colts. Pitted against a Dallas squad coming off a big win over the Eagles, combined with an afternoon start that’s perfect timing for East Coast viewers, especially, and this game is primed to generate one of the biggest handles Thanksgiving has ever seen.
“It’s a matchup made in heaven here for two teams that have big followings,” Avello said.
Early bettors jumped all over Dallas when it opened as a 4.5-point home underdog, and they haven’t stopped. The spread has come down to Chiefs -3.5.
While DraftKings has seen a wide margin of bets and money hit the Cowboys, BetMGM has seen the Chiefs gain slightly more tickets, something Avello thinks will happen at DraftKings eventually.
“My take is that we’re probably going to need the Cowboys,” he said.
The total of 52.5 has also been bet up a point and is the highest on the board for Thursday and Friday, a trend that is expected to continue. Avello says the Cowboys will dictate the pace and points as the Chiefs “play to the level of competition.”
Burrow’s back
The night game Thursday showcases two teams bettors and fans are also familiar with and pits Burrow versus Lamar Jackson in Burrow’s first game since Week 2. Bettors at BetMGM have been reluctant to take the 7-point underdog Bengals, with 73% of the early handle backing Baltimore.
The opening line was +10 because it wasn’t known a couple of weeks ago that Burrow would return, but the spread has adjusted to a touchdown.
DraftKings has reported more live for Cincinnati, and Avello believes bettors might wait until they see how Burrow looks early and how the offense plays without receiver Tee Higgins, creating a big in-game handle.
“When Joe Burrow is out there, Joe Burrow is going to try to win and give it his all,” Avello said.
Statement game
The NFL couldn’t have known when it scheduled the Bears to visit the Eagles that this would be such a key game in the NFC. Chicago has won seven of its last eight games, and a popular team is once again getting bet like it. The Eagles have been one of the top wagered teams all season.
This won’t be a prime-time showdown with an afternoon kick time, but it’s a standalone game surrounded by college football contests, so it’s still going to be a big betting draw.
“I would expect it to do well even though the time slot is weird,” Avello said. “They don’t normally put a game in this spot, but there are a lot of college games going (Friday) too.”
So far, bettors are liking the Bears +7 at DraftKings by a small margin, and BetMGM has seen a split, with Chicago getting 57% of the bets but 65% of the money coming in on Philly.
“Things are working for (the Bears),” Avello said. “They’ve won some close games. Now they find themselves in a spot where they can make a statement. They can show that they’re one of the best teams in the NFC.”
