The “world's largest prediction market” could be on the cusp of legally returning to the U.S., which would inject some serious competition into the still-young world of wagering via sports event contracts.
- Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, is nearing a return to the U.S. after the issuance of a favorable "no-action" letter from the CFTC.
- The company exited the U.S. market in 2022 following regulatory violations but has since operated offshore.
- With growing interest in federally regulated sports wagering, Polymarket’s scale, regulatory momentum, and strategic partnerships suggest it could soon compete directly with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood in the U.S.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan tweeted victoriously on Wednesday about a “no-action” letter issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That letter was in response to a request from exchange QCEX, which was acquired by Polymarket in July.
Coplan called the decision a “green light to go live” in the U.S. and told his X followers to “stay tuned.”
This could mean Polymarket’s return to the U.S. is near, a significant development for the nascent business of federally regulated prediction markets.
Polymarket has not been allowed to serve U.S. customers since early 2022 when it reached a settlement with the CFTC “for offering off-exchange event-based binary options contracts and (a) failure to obtain designation as a designated contract market or registration as a swap execution facility.”
Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC.
— Shayne Coplan 🦅 (@shayne_coplan) September 3, 2025
Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.
Stay tuned https://t.co/NVziTixpqO
Nevertheless, Polymarket continued to function as an offshore, crypto-based prediction market, garnering hundreds of millions of dollars in bets from users all over the world.
Those betting markets have included ones for sporting events, a relatively new development in the U.S. regulated market but a growing one.
CFTC-regulated entities like Kalshi and Robinhood, as well as newer players like Underdog, are already facilitating wagering on the NFL and other sports under that federal oversight.
Polymarket, though, is big, and would be a big competitor for those names. It would also mean a new competitor for state-regulated online sports betting sites in the U.S.
And now, the purchase of QCEX, the recent addition of Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, and the no-action letter from the CFTC have set the stage for Polymarket to legally operate as a prediction market.
