A best-of-one between Indiana and Miami for the college football national championship was nowhere near the top of the cards at the start of the season. But now that the title game is set, futures bettors who called their shots are close to making a killing.
Key Takeaways
- Indiana, now favored to win the national title, opened the season with a .99% implied chance.
- An “excta” on the championship matchup might’ve won $18,185.
- Eighty-six percent of bets are on Indiana to win the championship game.
It would’ve been tough to predict a national championship showdown between an ACC school that didn’t make its own conference championship game and a Big Ten school that hasn’t won a conference title since 1967.
But through a little bit of luck and lots of outstanding play, that’s the stage entering next Monday’s national championship game. Oddsmakers have the Hoosiers as 7.5-point favorites as they set their sights on winning their first national title in the program's history.
Miami’s +3,500 opening odds carried an implied chance of just 2.8%. That was still approximately three times higher than Indiana, as its +10,000 odds equaled a .99% implied probability, per SportsOddsHistory.
To put that into perspective, a person who bet $10 on each line would win either $350 or $1,000.
A parlay of two teams winning is naturally impossible, but the theoretical $36,350 payout illustrates the improbability of both teams reaching the final game. A fair estimate at an exacta featuring Miami and Indiana in the national championship game could be created by halving the odds from +363,500 to +181,750, which would pay $18,185 for a winning $10 wager.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who saw this coming?
The CFP only began a few weeks ago, but BetMGM’s odds showed extraordinary movement as the bracket progressed.
Miami had only shortened from +3,500 at opening to +2,200 by Round 1. Beating Texas A&M and then Ohio State dropped the Hurricanes all the way to +300 ahead of the semifinals, and they’re now +250 (28.6% chance) to win the whole shebang.
Indiana, on the other hand, was down from +10,000 at opening to +275 in the first round. Beating Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl saw the Hoosiers shorten to +130 before the semifinal, and they’re now -300 (75% chance) after whacking Oregon in the semifinal, 56-22.
BetMGM reported that Ohio State claimed the highest share of tickets (13.1%) and the pot (20.1%). Indiana and Georgia were second and third in both categories, respectively.
No matter the outcome, BetMGM will be happy. Texas and Oregon were its biggest future liabilities, and both will be watching the game from their couches.
National championship game betting stats
As much as both teams have overcome the odds, public bettors are all over Indiana entering the week before the title game.
BetMGM reported that 86% of bets and 88% of the handle is on Indiana -7.5. Fifty percent of bets and 75% of the money is also on the Hoosiers’ moneyline, even at steep -300 odds.
The over/under has been bet from 47.5 up to 48.5 points as of Monday morning. Eighty-nine percent of bets and 88% of the pot is on the over.
