One of the biggest NFL games of the young season did a number on a major U.S. sports betting operator.
Key Takeaways
- Buffalo moneyline and players hitting numerous props put a hurting on DraftKings’ pregame and live betting handles.
- The Bills rallied from a 15-point deficit late to score 22 fourth-quarter points and win 41-40.
- DraftKings maintains that its parlay mix and structural hold are above expectations through two NFL weeks.
DraftKings executives said in a recent investor sitdown with Citizens JMP Securities that the Buffalo Bills’ 41-40 win over the Ravens on Sunday night in Week 1 was the “single worst game outcome” the sportsbook has seen since launching in the U.S. in 2018. Bettors crushed the operator with player prop hits and the Bills moneyline, which drew a significant pregame handle and live wagering after Buffalo went down by 15 points.
The Bills were +2,000 underdogs at ESPN BET at one point during the game. Buffalo scored 22 points in the final quarter to hand DraftKings a massive blow. It wasn’t the only operator to feel the pain that night.
ESPN BET recently reported that customers hit on 28 of the 30 most-bet markets on Bills-Ravens. This included wagers on Buffalo, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Zay Flowers in the anytime touchdown market, and both Allen and Jackson throwing for over 200+ yards.
Henry easily surpassed his rushing total with 169 yards on the ground. The game’s over 51.5 points hit easily, as well as live total bets at different price points.
'Fine' after 2 weeks
Behind successful favorites and a Week 2 filled with overs, bettors have fared well in this season, especially with moneyline parlays and teasers.
"Outside that result, the actual outcomes across Weeks 1 and 2 are tracking in line, or 'fine,'" Citizens wrote in the report. "Across revenue drivers, (DraftKings CEO Jason) Robins is seeing player engagement, retention, acquisition, in-play product, and promotional spend tracking in line with or better than expectations to start the season."
DraftKings has done well with its parlay mix and structural hold, which executives told Citizens were better than expected. Player props have helped structural margins in the early going this NFL season, and DraftKings is confident its pricing is solid and not correlated with the customer-friendly outcomes.
“That said, we believe investors are going to question pricing related to more advanced bets and player props until we see several weeks of better-than-expected results,” Citizens wrote. “Overall, we believe EBITDA is tracking below consensus expectations for 3Q25 (consensus: $51M), with two NFL weekends left in the quarter.”
Looking ahead
The sports betting and iGaming operator said revenue for the second half of 2025, which includes much of the NFL season, is on a “really good track.” There are no new markets added before the season. Missouri sports betting launches Dec. 1.
Still, DraftKings believes it can reach 30% EBITDA margins despite tax increases in several jurisdictions, including Illinois.
“We maintain our Market Outperform rating on DKNG and $54 price target, based on a blend of 16x our 2027E EBITDA and 17x our 2026E-2027E FCF,” the company said in the report.
