PGA Championship Longshot Picks and Predictions: Smash Berger

The competition is stiff but Daniel Berger is in excellent form entering the PGA Championship and is worthy of consideration as one of the top longshot picks in the field.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
May 13, 2025 • 13:14 ET • 4 min read
Daniel Berger PGA TOUR
Photo By - Imagn Images. PGA TOUR golfer Daniel Berger hits a drive at the 2025 Masters.

The 107th edition of the PGA Championship gets underway this week at Quail Hollow Club in North Carolina. While betting favorites often come out on top, past champions have still offered strong value for bettors.

Phil Mickelson won the 2021 PGA Championship at 283-1, while Collin Morikawa won in 2020 at 31-1.

Below, I break down the PGA Championship odds and highlight two long-shot golf picks with legitimate upside to contend in the season's second major.

2025 PGA Championship longshot picks

  • Daniel Berger to win outright (+10000)
  • Keith Mitchell to win outright (+13000)

Picks were made on 5-13 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

PGA Championship longshot predictions

Longshot pick to win: Daniel Berger
+10000 at DraftKings

Daniel Berger enters in tremendous form. He has made the weekend in each of his past nine tournaments, gaining total strokes every time.

He's finished T30 or better in each of those events, including a runner-up performance at the WM Phoenix Open and a T3 finish at the RBC Heritage. The latter is a Signature Event, and many of the world’s top golfers also attend the popular WM Phoenix Open.

The point is Berger can compete with the world’s best, which he will need to do in this week’s major.

Everything in his bag has been working this season. Over the past nine tournaments, Berger has gained strokes putting, around the green, on approach, and off the tee in at least seven of those events.

He is one of the most accurate drivers on tour, which is essential this week with Quail Hollow’s punitive rough and narrow fairways.

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Longshot pick to win: Keith Mitchell
+13000 at DraftKings

Another golfer arriving in tremendous form is Keith Mitchell, who has made the weekend and gained total strokes in each of his past six tournaments.

Mitchell has finished inside the Top 18 in all six outings, including a runner-up performance at the Corales Puntacana Championship. While some of those tournaments featured weaker fields compared to the star-studded PGA, Mitchell has proven he can contend with the world’s best.

Not only did he finish tied for 20th at last year’s U.S. Open, but he also placed T3 at the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship. The latter is worth noting for two reasons.

First, it was a loaded event won by Rory McIlroy, and Mitchell was surrounded on the leaderboard by names such as Viktor Hovland, Bryson DeChambeau, and Xander Schauffele.

Second, the event took place at Quail Hollow Club, which hosts this week’s PGA Championship.

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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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