DK WNBA Monday 🏀

53-51

If Aziaha doesn't go off again then what? 

Mercury -6

Good idea I’ll be watching the ingame Wings team total and playing it as we move along.  

the best road dogs cover with points>76

lower than that it’s like 33% chance and obviously the further away from 76 the lesser chances.  

I use pregame data of what a teams points average is.  Away games dogs and who did they score big on.  

I will be watching the Valk very intently because not many road games.  Their high point road games were against the Soarks.  If the Valk stay low scoring that lessens their chances.  

I lean both favorites today but the wings point average is better.  

I feel like both faves will come out with the W today. I'm leaning Valkyrie only if they reach the Feng shui number then I may consider a bet . Good thoughts bro good luck 

@Digitalkarma

That Dream line has moved up to -7.5....interesting move.....

also looking at Mystics -5 on Tuesday.....stillearly....will be watching your thread..

bol DK

Betting away dogs is about scoring and keeping pace.  I’m posting this for thoughts and discussion because I’m not sure of your clarity.  Maybe you already consider it so skip this if so.  

anyway my point from above a gave a standard number the dog needs.  Actually when the dog needs is data terms is dps. 

This stands for Delta Points Scored  DPS is the difference between the number of points the team actually scored and the number of points they were expected to score.  This number is essentially the team total of the dog.  

2025 season

away dogs if any line and any total 

if these teams go over their team total 32-6 and every season it’s the same or close to the same winning %. 

My point for today is becamefulnon high output road dogs that have the potential to elevate past and over their team total.  These data loves dogs that score. 

The best evaluation of this is ingame but the problem is fast dog starts the original line has disappeared.  None the less with patients becomes opportunity so watch both teams outputs and the ingame lines. 

Hope you enjoyed this 

There is also the opposite DPA about how a dog team allows their opponents to reach their team total.  But I don’t know if you enjoy this.  

Getting close to the Feng shui #, I believe Rhyne Howard may return today which should bump the # up past it im expecting 10 or 11 closing 

@spottie2935

 Thank you for sharing your insight. I haven't heard much about DPA I'm not too savvy with statistics but knowing that you are into queries and the more technical stuff it would make sense that the Dream is the play. I can say with certainty that the Valkyrie won't be winning people over with their scoring they will have to cut down the tempo and play a drag em out kind of game. Wings offensr have potential to keep pace with Mercury but I am not expecting Alicia Thomas to have another bad game vs them or Aziaha James going 5 of 9 from 3 pt range. Maybe Mercury by 9 

No Sabally or Cooper dang no wonder line is only 6, didn't pay attention to the injury report hmmm

thanks for the reply

yes I am pondering the under in the Merc and Wings game.  A combined 4 starters out.  My thinking is small under and adjust at the half. Sometimes the injured starters are ball control players and  defensive types, and this opens up the game?

 The total is lower for a Wings game especially as you have targeted a pull back on the Wings previous huge output. 

I have dabbled on: current lines 

Dream-7.5 

under Wings and Merc 164 

Bol 

My book won't let me do cash out option my Mercury wager, hmmm 

@Digitalkarma

Thinking about dabbling tonight with beaver ball. You like Dallas +12 or Phoenix PK better to pair with Atlanta -1.5 in a 2 team 6 point teaser? My book is giving me +110 odds on a 6 point beaver ball teaser as a promo.

I'd probably go with Wings +12 they have been competitive on the road and only lost by more than 12 only once on the road, and that was to the Mercury. Both teams have stars out so I don't see either team running away with it and winning by double digit

GL bro 

@Digitalkarma

 I know you made the wager without realizing Copper and Sabally out, but I still think you are on the right side. 

Dallas is definitely playing better in the 2nd quarter of this season (5-3 so far). They also just beat this PHX team as 11.5 point dogs with Sabally and Copper both playing. 

The 6 point line tonight is basically the same as the line when Dallas visited Phoenix on June 11th. This was pre Li Yueru and pre Aziaha James. Arike, Carrington, and Siegrist played. Nalyssa Smith was also around. Copper was out for PHX but otherwise completely healthy. 

Just looking at names on the page, 6 feels a bit high especially when compared to the line from a month ago. PHX has lost back to back games for the first time all season and I’m expecting a very focused season effort from them to break that streak. Copper and Sabally out should only have them more focused. Injuries or no, losing back to back games to Dallas would be straight up embarrassing. 

On the Wings side, they have 2 road wins all season and both were in Connecticut. For a team that is heavily relying on young players tonight, I could see the PHX crowd being a factor tonight. Clamp down on D, surround AT with undrafted shooters (plus Sami) and just let it fly. 

Finally, this Dallas team is “feeling good” and probably looking ahead a bit to the game in Chicago after this because early in the season they lost back to back games to the Sky. Hard to stay focused on a team you just beat that will be without two starters when the next game up is a bad team that beat you twice and you’re looking for revenge. At least, I hope that’s the case. 

BOL DK

@LippyLeans

 Thanks Lippy for the feedback. I will ride it out and see what happens like with the Fever the other time 

Nice game so far by the Valkyrie. This close to playing them if it got to +8 but stayed at +7.5 

Wonder if I should take the halftime line or see if Dream can get this back to pregame numbers 

I took Dream so I need the Calm to go cold.

 We’ll see soon enough.  

glad you missed out on this favorite.  The DreSm were hit for a while now stepping back like the Liberty Aces and Merc

This season is Wild.

Under 170.5 I took under do we will see 

I took +9.5(-105) live , hope to get backdoor cover 

@spottie2935

 GL bud 

By the hair on my chinny chin , I'll take it

Dang almost had it spottie! 

Yes man wild game.  

glad you won on yours 

Glad you won on yours