Sweem's Portuguese Wednesday 29.01.2013

Been up studying the games gathering information and put together plays from Portugal as it is a league I follow. 7-1-3 overall in 2014 so far, hoping to continue the run here today. Feel free to fade, tail or stay away ^^

Penafiel - Trofense: Pick: Penafiel @ 1.75
The hosts can take over the league lead with a victory here as they look to continue their good stretch of unbeaten games in the league. After Moreirense lost yesterday, the first place is now up for grabs - an opportunity Penafiel would be eager to take. They are very good at the moment, clearly looking like a side that should be a promotion team - they offered a fight against Sporting Lisbon but came up short in the Cup, however against a Trofense side who ranks third from the bottom, chances for a victory are good for Penafiel who will be motivated to gain points in the top. Trofense will be without their regular keeper and their best midfielder. Penafiel only have 1 loss at home this season, so they are a tough opponent when they play home. Motivation and class should be enough to carry home 3 points!
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Aves - Atletico CP: Pick: Aves @ 1.72

Massive massive massive points for Aves here who would need all three in order to establish themselves as promotion candidates, and with 5 straight wins - they have built some momentum in the team and moreover, have played brilliant as of late. Aves are solid at home with their 7-2-4 record, and have won 3 straight home games. The same pattern should continue against Atletico CP who are at the very bottom, low finances and a squad that is not good enough for the league. Motivation is clearly on the home side who has the better roster overall, much more to play for, and to do it at home is just a bonus. Pretty generous odds are offered in my opinion and I will take them for Aves. Atletico CP are 1-3-9 on the road and should not be able to cause any damage to a high flying Aves side. 2 units here
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Santa Clara - Sporting B: Pick: Sporting B DnB @ 1.75

The pick is based on the situation of the home team. I will explain it further. Santa Clara are in big financial struggles, which has seen players leave the team, and they now have a very short squad to elaborate with. They also struggle to find new players in the current transfer window because they simply can not afford to pay regular salaries anymore, which makes them an unattractive destination for players to come to. Sporting B on the other side are an upper-table side, who could use some players from the real "Sporting" team who plays in the highest division, some good upcoming prospects are playing here and they may be the most talented side in the entire league. To my mind, they should have decent chances to overcome a struggling Santa Clara team consisting of unmotivated players who barely gets paid anymore, and a very short roster. Quality is simply on Sporting B here, who are a better organized team with more soccer in them. Santa Clara are the second worst home team in the league and they are in a critical situation which is why I bet against them. PS: I would consider a straight play on Sporting here too, but I will safe it up with DNB and raise my stake to 3 units

For those of you who are into numbers

2014 record
Record: 7-1-3 (+ 4.42 units)
Accuracy: 70%
ROI: 129.87%

Hi Sweem, what is your picks for the 3 remaining games : stoke vs sunderland, man city vs Tot and west broom vs AV . Cheers!!

sweem im going to tail you large... im in desparate need and i like your plays and angles...anyway how many units for penafiel? also what does DNB mean? 

sporting B win, draw, no bet

arbitrage opportunities knock in DNB situations

I was going to ask the same sailor

GL

Jailbait - When desperate, the biggest mistake you can do is to play too large, so try to spread your units a little, otherwise one loss could ruin your budget if going too large. Penafiel - 2u. And as John explained, Dnb means Draw No Bet, so your stake is returned in case of a draw.

Sailor - Not my kind of games to be honest, nothing I'd put money on as they could literally go either way, stoke are usually hard to beat at home, but Sunderland are improving = no play. Man city has the quality but on the road to a Tottenham team on the upswing the game is wide open = no play. West Brom lost their scorer Shane Long, and Villa are in need of points, two teams that play similar style of soccer, hard to decide a winner so a draw is likely..but no play either.

John - thanks for explaining and best of luck mate! MJM - thanks bud, you too (:

Hey Sweem 

Damn,  I don't see any of these games on my book.  I have 1 portugese le(PORTUGAL - PORTUGUESE LIGA)

Vicente - understood, I personally like the more smaller leagues because once you get into them on a regular basis, and manage to find good info, the books are usually pretty generous with the offered odds! We will see how it goes though, cheers bud! (:

Tomhee - It is likely that your book does not offer these games in that case, and only offer the highest tier of Portugal. I use bet365, they have massive selections of leagues

GL in Portugal Sweem

Good Luck today. Im actually on 2 of the 3

DiamondJack - Thanks mate. you too!

Jerzey - Let's get them :))

Took that Aves tip, currently sweating it 1-1. Let's get that win!

Nice write ups!

Good luck, sweem! Know almost next to nothing about Portugese league, but it was a nice read!

Tough day but not a disaster, aves kept the calm and won 3-2. Penafiel had to chase the game after conceding early and Sporting B lost 5 players before kickoff, so Santa Clara matched up better and won 1-0. Record overall: 8-1-5 (+ 0.86 units)