VeritasAlways

Game 6

Nesmith Ov 11' pts, -126

Agree again, on the Mystics.

I used them on the Under too, article with the stats the play is based on just posted in the promo forum. Excerpt:

"Guess which team had the lowest PPG (in the preseason) on offense?

Yup, the Mystics.

Washington averaged 72 PPG, which was 11.6 points beneath the league average of 83.6.

And in just two games, they had 38 turnovers.

That’s an average of almost five turnovers per quarter!"

You can't give it too much weight cuz it's just two preseason games but based on the fast pace style of play new head coach Johnson wants them to incorporate (taking their first shot within 8 seconds of getting possession) they're going to have a lot of missed shots and turnovers. 

"I got a better line than this but this is the current line."

Bravo.

I do the same all the time. 

Posting lines that most of the average sports bettors can't get is an exercise in vanity. And the norm in ForumLand. Your integrity is admirable.

Again, I wish you success this season.

PredictEm.com

Battling the Books: WNBA Season Opener Pick

by R. B. D, Last updated May 16, 2025 

Atlanta at Washington

And so it begins, WNBA 2025.

Although I don’t have any recent data to work with, there’s no way I’m sitting out Opening Day.

So where’s my action going to come from?

What to do, what to do . . .

Not a lot of data to look at while trying to find an edge, so I checked:

1 – week one last year

2 – this year’s preseason

3 – my own notes on season win totals

Week One 2024

Looking at the first week of play last season, Dogs had a slight edge at 6-5.

Overs had a profitable edge at 7-3-1.

The average total (the book’s number, not total points scored per game) was 151.

Looks like the books don’t want to get beat on Overs again, here are the games and totals for opening day:

Min/Dal 164

Atl/Wash 157

LA/GS 168

All three are higher than the average number from opening week last year and by an average of 10 PPG.

My Regular Season Wins Notes

Here’s an excerpt from my NBA Regular Season Wins Total column at PredictEm.com:

“Washington head coach Johnson said he wants his team to play at a fast pace, with shots taken within the first 8 seconds of their taking possession. That style of play is difficult enough to be successful at when you have experienced players who are used to playing with each other. It’s a recipe for disaster for a team with the inexperience and youth of this one. Expect a lot of turnovers and missed shots from the Mystics.”

In the WNBA preseason, guess which team had the lowest PPG on offense?

Yup, the Mystics.

Washington averaged 72 PPG, which was 11.6 points beneath the league average of 83.6.

And in just two games, they had 38 turnovers.

That’s an average of almost five turnovers per quarter!

It was only two games, but my expectation of turnovers and missed shots seems to be an accurate prognostication. (Yeah, I should probably come up with a better word for “prognostication” to use there, but I’m feeling lazy today.)

Preseason 2025

It’s preseason, so you can’t give it a lot of weight, but these two teams played in the preseason. Atlanta won, 80-70.

Based on the above, I’m going to lay the points with Atlanta today. The Dream had a dream off-season, picking up Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones to play alongside Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Jordin Canada.

Sports betting is always a bit of a crapshoot, even when you’re well informed and armed with stats and numbers. It’s even more so in the opening weeks of a season when you have no current data to work with. But it’s opening day, and I want it on the fun.

Buy this one early cuz I expect money to come in on the Fav and the line to go up.

My play:

Atl -6'

Same to you, good luck this season! 

WNBA Regular Season Wins article is up in the Web Promotions forum if you'd like some more food for thought.

I like GS Over. I got it at 7' but I can only find that at one book. The common number is 8' so that's what I used for the play. And because I don't post what I don't play I bought in at 8' too.

Also liking the Dream to win by double digits tomorrow.

Not huge investments for me, just some fun for a rooting interest throughout the season. 

Battling the Books: WNBA Season Win Bets

by R. B. D. Last updated May 14, 2025

The Golden State Valkyries

Apocalypse Now or Apocalypse Not?

The 2025 WNBA season begins on Friday, May 16th, and with it comes the inaugural season of the Golden State Valkyries.

Ya gotta admit – The Valkyries is kind of cool for a team name and uber-appropriate for a WNBA team.

Plus, it comes with a super cool, already-established fight song they can blare over the loudspeakers while the team takes the court. You can’t do any better than Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries” and the unforgettable images it provokes of Colonel Kilgore (Robert Duvall) and his Huey helicopters, machine guns blasting, descending on villagers on the Vietnamese beach in Francis Ford Coppola’s epic Apocalypse Now.

And how cool would it be if the entire arena of 20,000 fans (okay, it’s the WNBA, so 200 fans, unless Caitlin’s in town) sings/shouts out the Valkyrie war cry of, “Hoyo-toho! Hoyo-toho!” putting fear into the hearts of their visiting opponents.

Then again, this IS the WNBA, so they’re just as likely to play Helen Reddy’s “I Am Woman” or “A Woman’s Got the Power” by The A’s.

If it was up to me, I’d play The Stones “Under My Thumb.” (Yeah, I know – not everyone shares my sense of humor. And the world’s a lesser place because of it.)

But I digress.

Back to ‘capping.

The question for these Valkyries is - will the inaugural season be Apocalypse Now (destruction) or Apocalypse Not (success)?

Based on recent historical data, they’re more likely to be the villagers than the Huey’s.

The last time the league added a team was in 2008. The Atlanta Dream was more like the Atlanta Nightmare, winning just four of 30 games. That translates to a win percentage of just 11%.

Previous to that we had the 2006 Chicago Sky, who went 5-29, 14%.

Based on the results from the last two expansion teams, that looks like a steep hill to climb, which is why there’s higher juice on the Under at 8', -128.

The Valkaries do have some advantages over those last two expansion teams, such as an expanded free agency, which improves the pool of available players.

But let’s dig a little deeper.

I went back to the year 2000 when the league added four new teams.

Here’s what I see from that season:

Indiana Fever 9-23, 28%

Miami Sol 13-19, 40%

Portland Fire 10-22, 31%

Seattle Storm 6-26, 18%

Three of those four expansion teams would be a winner on an Over with a total of 8'.

I’m going to take a shot on the Valkyries to go Over based on the better talent pool they have to select from. And the extra four games can’t hurt.

My only concern, other than the horrendous record of the last two expansion teams, is Valkyries’ head coach Natalie Nakase.

In a recent interview, she said it’s okay for her players to screw up at first because that’s what coaches are for, to help players learn from their mistakes. “We’ll be focusing on process over results,” she said, and “It’s okay to fail.”

“It’s okay to fail??!!”

Vince Lombardi would be rolling in his grave if he heard that.

GS Ov 8', +104

Spottie:

"Mark my words the new team will make a few big upsets and probably early."

Agree. 

I'm taking their Regular Season Wins Total Over. I did a little research on this, I'll share what I found in a reply in this post (or the website promotion forum if I use the entire WNBA article, to credit the source.)

Just waiting for one or two more houses to put their lines up to get the best number and price. Right now I see two numbers being offered, 7' and 8'. 

Also, to misquote Van, I'm NOT "Into the Mystic(s)" (someone will get that reference, yes?) Taking them Under.

Spottie:

 "I can’t bet on a team that I have no clue on."

I did this a couple days ago.

I bet on the Kunming Monks.

I had no idea who they are.

I didn’t even know what sport or league they play in.

I logged into one of my books to check the morning NBA lines and at the top of the page I saw a game between the Kunming Monks and the Shanghai Five.

The Monks were -5', live.

I bet it on a whim simply because I think the Kunming Monks is a great name for a team.

At first glance I didn’t see the “n” in the middle of Kunming and thought it was the Kumming Monks, which, for obvious reasons, is an even cooler name than the Kunming Monks.

They won by double digits so it worked out well for me.

Sometimes life is cool that way.

Good luck to you this NBA season. I'll drop in once in a while if I have something worth sharing.

Correction on the above, was supposed to read: "get the HOME win here."

Prop Bet:

The guitar player for the Monkees, Ov 12' points, -120

Here's his line, current series FG/points:

5/8, 17 pts

8/13, 19 pts

Here's his line Round one:

3/7, 7 pts

5/9, 16 pts

7/13, 18 pts

5/8, 14 pts

8/15, 19 pts

Here's his line regular season vs Cleveland:

7/14, 10 pts

4/7, 22 pts

He's surpassed tonight's number in seven of nine games.

I'm counting on him making at least two three pointers. That will get me halfway to the number I need for this bet.

What am I basing this on?

Let's look at his line for three pointers.

This series: 5/8, 4/6

Round one: 3/6, 2/5, 4/8, 4/5, 1/3.

Reg season vs Cleveland: 1/2, 3/6.

He's made at least two three pointers in seven of nine games. Not out of line to think he can get at least two tonight.

Yes, Cleveland is down 0-2 but I don't expect a let down from the Pacers tonight, not when they have a chance to all but cinch the series if they can get the road win here. No matter, win or lose it should be a high scoring game which can only help the Over on this prop.

"P.S. I WOULD NOT GIVE OUT THIS SITE, IT TOOK TO (sic) MANY YEAR’S TO DISCOVER THIS TREASURE!"

This was the bait designed to hook a couple suckers. 

If the pick won many of you know what would happen next.

Public Service Announcement 

It slithers back in hoping no one remembers who he is.

Even the worst sports bettor gets lucky and wins one once in a while. But don't be fooled by this lifetime documented 40%'er.

It'salladream:

"BIGGEST PLAY! Rutgers first half +1/2 - MEGAPLAY!! Can't lose! I KNOW!!!"

Score: Wisc 43-34

Loser after loser after loser:

"Cal Santa Barbara FH -1! I already won this game before it even started!"

"ALL MY RETIREMENT IS ON THIS GAME! If I lose I won't be coming back!"

Score: Cal San Diego 42-33

Fortunately, most posters are on to him now.

hadenfizzle/it'salladream:

"If this first quarter don't win I will give the first 4 people who reply $1,000.00!!!

Straight Stake $8,500.00

@T-Rex77, @none775, @SPark1, @nikon - You all will receive $1,000.00 I'm serious. Ok entry is closed."

And when the pick lost (of course) the attention-starved, click-baiting chode ran away and hid for 6 months, hoping the forum would forget.

He's not a bettor, he doesn't bet real money. He comes to amuse himself at the expense of posters who are new or naive.

He even posts smiley faces and beer mugs in a toast after his picks lose and posters who foolishly tailed and lost their money call BS on him for his "Guarantees" and "Bet the House!" nonsense.

He thinks it's funny when posters lose money tailing him. THAT'S why he posts, that's who he really is.

Do your research.

Do not tail anyone blindly.

Especially this clown.

Record, basket picks 1-1

Cle/Mia Un 212'

Young Buckwheat (with the ties in his hair) was even funnier than older Buckwheat (with the afro.)

Watching him count cups of sugar in the episode where they're making lemonade is still hilarious. 

Maryland -10

It's here.

The Big Dance.

Sixty-four teams stepping onto the dance floor.

Which will be Fred Astaire, which will be Elaine Benes?

All will be revealed over the next three weeks.

Memphis a Dog? And to a MW team?

I don't see it.

NOT one of my system plays (I'll post a few of those here, too) but I'll bite.

Memphis +1'

And records DO matter.

The majority of people that come here are not posters, they're viewers.

They come here hoping to find a capper that they can tail and help them win.

To them, records matter. A lot.

Posters have the right to include their record or not, entirely up to them.

But if they keep one it should be honest.

And cheaters deserve to be called out every time.

From the title: "Why don't people post records?"

Some do.

lagame: Jan 11:

YTD (NFL): 85- 77 ATS

Picks:

LAC -2' (loser)

Pit +10 (loser)

lagame Jan 19

YTD (NFL): 85- 77 ATS

In the first FIVE weeks of the NFL season, FIVE different posters called him out FIVE times for shaving multiple losses off his record.

Cheater Boy just can't help himself, ending the season the same way he started it out, year after year in every sport - shaving losses off his record and padding it with wins he didn't give out.

Last week, 0-5, 0

Real record: 83-91

Stated he bets 1000 per game (remember as he said you guys are just amateurs, he's a professional sports better he says he does this for a living, mostly football and soccer, both of which he's lost thousands of dollars yet continually lies about being a winner.)

83 wins equals $83,000.

91 losses at standard - 110 juice equals $101,000

That's a loss of $18,000.00

But the losses are even greater because he regularly uses favorites of -120 to -155, and doesn't include it in his record, such as counting a -150 loss as 1.5 instead of counting it is only one loss, which is a point many brought up above that a record is worthless when you use high juice favorites and won't keep a dollar amount. And everyone knows why they don't.

Real winners don't have to cheat.

"Why don't people post records?"

Doesn't matter when there are insecure, attention seeking, perpetual cheaters with zero integrity, posting fake records in hopes that their flaccid egos will get a bump from empty gratitude from total strangers on the internet. Tells you a lot about their real life.

"I got the secret. I KNOW!"

Sound familiar? It should.

it'salladream:

"BIGGEST PLAY! Rutgers first half +1/2 - MEGAPLAY!! Can't lose! I KNOW!!!"

Score: Wisc 43-34

Loser after loser:

"Cal Santa Barbara FH -1! I already won this game before it even started!"

"ALL MY RETIREMENT IS ON THIS GAME! If I lose I won't be coming back!"

Score: Cal San Diego 42-33

Fortunately, most posters are on to him now.

hadenfizzle/it'salladream:

"If this first quarter don't win I will give the first 4 people who reply $1,000.00!!!

Straight Stake $8,500.00

@T-Rex77, @none775, @SPark1, @nikon - You all will receive $1,000.00 I'm serious. Ok entry is close."

And when the pick lost (of course) the attention-starved, click-baiting chode ran away and hid for 6 months, hoping the forum would forget.

He's not a handicapper, he doesn't bet real money, he doesn't come here to help posters, he comes to amuse himself at the expense of posters who are new or naive.

He even posts smiley faces and beer mugs in a toast after his picks lose and posters who foolishly tailed and lost their money call BS on him for his "Guarantees" and "Bet the House!" nonsense.

He thinks it's funny when posters lose money tailing him. THAT'S why he posts, that's who he really is.

Do your research.

Do not tail anyone blindly.

Especially this clown.

3-3

Ravens - 1

 Public Service Announcement

Anyone who's been at covers more than a week knows all about this guy, but it looks like there's some new posters who don't know what he is (or they're just more of his aliases pumping himself up.)

Warning for new posters who don't know him.

Before the current season, his last college basketball picks here were in March. He came in here at the beginning of the postseason bragging about his fake 70% in last year's tournament.

Five or six forum members posted his real record and called him out for lying. Then he bragged about how much his picks were going to win in this year's tournament.

But... he didn't even make it to day one of March Madness. Why not?

Because he was 1-11 in his last 12 picks leading up to Madness.

Yup, 1-11, just .08% in his last dozen picks, picks that were all "Monster Plays" and "Guaranteed Winners", and "Can't Miss!" and "Bet your House" etc etc etc. And he disappeared before the tournament even started.

Some Fizbo classics:

He opened the NCAA season two years ago with 13 straight losing weeks but bragged all the way how his bookies were going to shut him off because he's winning so much.

Proclaimed himself the greatest capper ever at Covers and to prove it he started a new thread for his Top Ten Best Bets Only, guaranteeing he would show everyone here how easy it was for him to hit 70%.

The thread disappeared after he went 1-5 in his first six picks. 

Three or four times each year he says he's going to keep a record just to prove he's not the loser everyone warns other posters about. The record keeping usually lasts 2 to 3 days at most before he stops because the losses pile up.

Gives out five picks, the first four lose, the fifth wins and he bumps his post to the top bragging "Winner!" w/out mentioning all the four losers already in.

Uses at least two to three different aliases including "It's all a dream" who showed up the day after Fizbo promised his guaranteed pick would win or he'd stop posting (it lost of course.) Not conjecture, it's a fact, he's the same guy that promised the first four posters that replied in his thread that hed pay them $1,000 if his "Guaranteed Lick" pick lost. It lost, of course, and stopped using that ID for six months hoping people would forget.

One Saturday he started out betting $100 units, lost as usual, upped his betting unit to $500, then $1000 per game. Down $12,000 with only one game left on the card he said it was his best bet of the day and was betting enough to win all his losses back and finish the day with a profit. The pick lost (of course.)

It would have been a $25,000 loss on the day except for the fact that he's not a real bettor, he has a well-established, years-long reputation of being an air bettor playing with Monopoly money.

Fake bets, fake money. Documented 40%'er, and even worse on his "Guaranteed Locks." 

EVERYBODY who bets will win once in a while, even the worst bettors like this guy. When he has a few rare wins don't let it fool you into thinking he can win. He's one of if not the worst handicappers at this or any other forum.

But don't take my word for it. Do your research use the search button and go look over his history read what other posters tell you about him. And then, run away, run far run fast or you WILL lose your money

Caveat emptor

Lowme,

Recommendation. - try Uncle Ray's Red hots. You can get them on Amazon.