VeritasAlways

"I don’t mind. I like hearing 2 sides of the story."

That's what I thought but I figured I would ask first (like I said, some betters are superstitious, myself included. But I always want to see the chess board from all angles and know all stats before I make a bet.)

Here's what I left out yesterday.

Minnesota has not been a Dog this season, until last night. But last year (same coach, same style of play, same basic team makeup) they were 'Dogs 13 times.

And they won nine of those games . . . SU.

And they were 10-3 ATS.

Collier's likely to be out for another 2 weeks. Obviously the Lynx won't be Dogs in their next game (Washington) but I think four of their next six are on the road including two at NY, might be catching 1-2 pts there based on how the books valued Collier being out last night (+2) as opposed to Minnesota's previous game at Phoenix where they were -3'.

Anyway, just stuff to think about when 'capping their next few games.

Good luck tonight.

Mr. F,

I had some stats last night on Minnesota but didn't post them because you picked the other side - I don't want anyone to think I'm questioning or jinxing their pick.

On the other hand, maybe you would have wanted to see them. Not that it would make you change, increase, or decrease your bet but just so that you have a full picture with some stats maybe you didn't see, and might be useful for the next game. 

Gamblers tend to be a suspicious lot, so I sometimes don't know whether to post or not. Doesn't matter because I rarely post as I don't see a lot of value and constructive talk being shared, as opposed to ego boosting and "Hey look at me!" stuff.

But I do check out your posts if I'm around, and try to contribute if I have something that I think contributors here might be interested in. So I'll ask you - if someone posts info on the other side of your pick would you feel jinxed or do you want all information?

"without knowing how bad they could be with out the best player in the W."

I have this as their fourth game without Phee this season. A 74-71 Rd win at Phoenix on 5/30, an 82-66 Hm win vs LA on 6/21, and a 64-68 Rd loss at Washington on 6/24. Just more stuff to think about for anyone still looking at the game and undecided.

The Lynx haven't lost two in a row all season so if they do lose tonight it makes Friday night's game interesting against a suddenly Sykes-less Mystics.

To add to the stats you're considering for the New York game, the Liberty are Double Digit Favs.

I have these at 28-28-1 all games, 10-12 ATS Rd teams. No real variance/edge to exploit there. 

For totals I have 28-29 all games, no edge there either. But broken down into Hm/Rd, the Over is 15-20 when it's a Double Digit Hm Fav (a profitable Fade at 57%) and 13-9 when it's a Double Digit Rd Fav, a nice edge at 59%.)

I haven't pulled the trigger on a side or total in this one yet, not sure if I will, but good luck on your plays today.

I bought Min today. Gonna need them to win by close to double digits to cover the number, but I have them at 10-5 ATS when laying 8 or more at Hm.

Hoping for a little extra effort/incentive from the Lynx tonight, a combination of being a little pissed off after losing to Atlanta at home in their last game, with a pinch of revenge mixed in for last year's championship series.

Were you watching Atlanta live last night? I caught it, was wondering, "What the hell was that that just crossed my screen??!!"

Best part was when the cameraman zoomed in on it not knowing what it was, then quickly turned the camera away while the announcer said, "Oh my, that's inappropriate!"

You'll never see that in an NBA game.

Just to add to the discussion, I have LV at 0-1 ATS as Double Digit Rd Dogs and Min at 7-3 ATS as DD Hm Favs (8-3 depending on if you got -9' or -10 vs GS on July 5.)

 Overall, Double Digit Hm Favs are 17-15-1 ATS and 13-20 Ov/Un.

You're welcome. Hope you find them helpful.

'Capping is like a chess board, it's good to look at it from every angle, so I thought someone might want to know some more stats to factor in.

Tonight's game will add a little more to my thoughts for tomorrow's Ace's game because Atlanta's in the same spot as Vegas will be in tomorrow night, B2B with both games on the Rd. I gave the overall numbers above, here's some stats on when the second game is a Rd game.

Team playing in game 2 of B2B on the Rd:

ATS 5-1, Ov 5-1

(If anyone wants to double check my math - when you do a lot of number crunching it's easy to make a mistake, it's always good to have backup - here are the qualifying games on my database: New York on 5/30, Phoenix on 6/19, Chicago on 6/22, Indiana on 6/27, Indiana on 7/16, and Minnesota on 7/10.)

NY on 5/30 is the only one that stayed Under the total and Indiana on 7/16 is the only spot that lost ATS.

Side note - the one that lost ATS was Indiana without Clark. More to the point it was their first game after Clark went on the injured list again. She's been injured three times this season, and the Fever lost all three of the following games - so much for the "Next Man Up" theory that says bet ON a team after they lose their star player. Ind is 0-3 in that spot, worth noting for their first game without her after her next injury.

I took A. Gray Ov 16' pts, -117 tonight. I think the books shaved a point offer season average because she played last night. But last time she was in a game 2 of B2B's she played 33 minutes so I'm not worried about her getting any bench rest tonight after playing last night. And she scored 18 in that one, her season average.

Good luck on whatever you go with tonight, and tomorrow.

Correction/addition. Above numbers were missing one game from my chart, Min on 7/10. They won ATS and the game went Over.

Correct record on teams in game 2 of B2B is:

9-3 ATS, 7-5 on the Over.

And, just a heads up . . Atlanta played last night, playing tonight at Phoenix. (They were in this B2B spot once this season, they played at home two nights in a row, game on 5/25, they won ATS and the game went Under.

"Can LV win 4 games in a row?"

We'll know after tomorrow night. If they do (or don't) here's some thoughts/stats for anyone who will be looking at the Aces on Friday. 

They'll be playing in game 2 of B2B's (back to back nights.) These were profitable on the Over last year at 17-6. But, as in all things in sports betting, trends eventually level out. This season the over is just 6-5.

But . . .

Their ATS record is 8-3.

Vegas is in the Rd/Rd subcategory (Hm/Hm, Hm/Rd, Rd/Hm, Rd/Rd.) There are two spots this season when both games were played on the road. ATS record is 1-1, both games went Over.

Those are league-based stats, covering all teams. I checked my charts to see if there is any team specific stats to factor in. This will be the second time Vegas has played B2B. The first was on 6/26, Hm/Hm, they won SU, lost ATS, and the game went over (by 14 points.)

Just a couple angles to look at for anyone 'capping Fridays games.

Another losing day. Gee, who would've have seen that one coming (well, everyone who's been here long enough to know him.)

The question of record keeping and prices are worthless with this guy anyway. Nobody, NOBODY, on this or ANY other forum, has been called out for cheating more times, by more different posters. Last season in the NFL he got caught shaving multiple losses off his record in five of the first five weeks. Same thing every year, every sport.

Last December he posted, "I lost yesterday's pick but it's no big deal for a guy like me because I have a winning record in every sport!"  And then his real records were posted and it showed that he was losing money in EVERY sport. But no one has to take my word for it, it's all here in the archives.

Money lines are irrelevant too. He used Germany -200 in a soccer bet and said he'd count it as two losses on his record if it didn't win, but when he lost he didn't even count it as one.

When he's not cheating on his record he's whining that he doesn't get enough views. And when he's not chastising posters here for failing to worship him properly he's seeking attention in his favorite way, posting stuff that has nothing to do with sports betting: 

"My gf was in a car accident this week!"

"My dad's in the hospital!"

"Some guy almost hit me on the highway today!"

"I'm recovering from surgery" (you won't find a single year here where he hasn't used this one, just to get sympathy replies.)

"MY DOG HAS LONG COVID!!!"

(Okay I made that last one up just to goof on him, but the rest is true.)

The internet's full of guys that cheat on their record, but as many here have pointed out many times over the years there's something wrong with this guy. All you need to know about him is this - he got caught using aliases to kiss his own ass, and despite the proof other posters provided - pasted from his own posts! - he denied it. He even tried to blame it on covers and the mods here, saying they let him get hacked.

Copied and pasted from his own thread:

Post #23, by LAGameofInches: "I am so humble to all who tail me."

Post #24, also by LaGameofInches: "I hate to sound like a beggar but I've been on a torrid run tailing you, do you have anything you like today?"

Post #25, by Hannibal: "I guess he forgot to sign into his second or third nickname to comment in his own thread. But according to him the other posters here are the clowns."

Post #26, by YardMatt: "LOL! Are you tooting your own horn and asking yourself for your plays, or asking one of your other ghosts?"

Only an insecure, mentally unstable person posts under multiple aliases to make himself look good.

And a handicapper who is truly winning doesn't have to cheat on his record. And NOBODY cheats more than this guy.

Caveat emptor

Correction, the game when Reese missed the layups wasn't last night, it was the night before against Minnesota. Also, saw a play with the clock about to run out, she gets the inbounds pass in a clear catch-and-shoot situation and... she dribbles the ball, no shot taken for the Sky. 

Today I watched her smack a clipboard out of a coach's hand. Totally classless and of course the league will likely let her get away with it.

I bet it's sometimes when I have a situational play with a decent W percentage (I shared some stats in a recent thread here, a day or two ago.) I don't get pissed though, like when I have a bet on the NBA and they do something stupid, because I don't expect professionalism from the WNBA.

Lip,

Yeah, the officiating is terrible, on the level of local little league teams. And the broadcasters are even worse. That said, I still prefer watching/betting on the WNBA than the NBA.

Straight Kash, 

TEN missed layups in the game I watched last night, including three by the overrated Cry-Baby brat angel reese. You know where they call them lay ups? Because they're supposed to be easy!. And don't forget all the shot clock turnovers. It's almost as if they don't even know that rule exists.

Jes, 

I had the game on in the background yesterday, only half paying attention. Heard a man's voice, I thought they were interviewing an NBA star who was in the audience. Looked up at the TV and . . .

It was Griner.

I did a double take, thought my eyes and ears were deceiving me.  I never heard her speak before but now that I have, along with all the other signs, I believe that, as Austin Powers would say . . .

A couple stats for future use if these kind of things interest you, or anyone else 'capping the WNBA.

In their next game, the winner of the CC Cup game is 2-2 ATS;  Overs are 2-2 in those games. 

In their next game, the loser of the CC Cup game is 2-1-1; Overs are 1-3 in those games.

After the Indiana win the Fav is now 0-5 in CC Cup games (I'm pretty sure that's accurate, I have to double check my database); the Over is 2-3.

I expect Minnesota's pretty pissed not just at losing the game but for losing the MONEY. And for getting beaten so thoroughly (A seven point second quarter, really? And an eight minute, 13 seconds gap without scoring, EIGHT minutes in a 10-point quarter??!!)

Puts the Mystics in what looks like a bad spot today as the Lynx will be looking to take it out on somebody but . . .

Double Digit Favs at Hm are 7-15 ATS this season. And for bettors who like to play totals, DD Hm Favs are 7-15 on Overs.

Minnesota and New York are both laying > 10 at Hm tonight.

Phx is a Double Digit Rd Fav. These teams are 4-8 ATS and 8-4 to the Over.

Just some stats if you're into this kind of stuff.

Game 6

Nesmith Ov 11' pts, -126

Agree again, on the Mystics.

I used them on the Under too, article with the stats the play is based on just posted in the promo forum. Excerpt:

"Guess which team had the lowest PPG (in the preseason) on offense?

Yup, the Mystics.

Washington averaged 72 PPG, which was 11.6 points beneath the league average of 83.6.

And in just two games, they had 38 turnovers.

That’s an average of almost five turnovers per quarter!"

You can't give it too much weight cuz it's just two preseason games but based on the fast pace style of play new head coach Johnson wants them to incorporate (taking their first shot within 8 seconds of getting possession) they're going to have a lot of missed shots and turnovers. 

"I got a better line than this but this is the current line."

Bravo.

I do the same all the time. 

Posting lines that most of the average sports bettors can't get is an exercise in vanity. And the norm in ForumLand. Your integrity is admirable.

Again, I wish you success this season.

PredictEm.com

Battling the Books: WNBA Season Opener Pick

by R. B. D, Last updated May 16, 2025 

Atlanta at Washington

And so it begins, WNBA 2025.

Although I don’t have any recent data to work with, there’s no way I’m sitting out Opening Day.

So where’s my action going to come from?

What to do, what to do . . .

Not a lot of data to look at while trying to find an edge, so I checked:

1 – week one last year

2 – this year’s preseason

3 – my own notes on season win totals

Week One 2024

Looking at the first week of play last season, Dogs had a slight edge at 6-5.

Overs had a profitable edge at 7-3-1.

The average total (the book’s number, not total points scored per game) was 151.

Looks like the books don’t want to get beat on Overs again, here are the games and totals for opening day:

Min/Dal 164

Atl/Wash 157

LA/GS 168

All three are higher than the average number from opening week last year and by an average of 10 PPG.

My Regular Season Wins Notes

Here’s an excerpt from my NBA Regular Season Wins Total column at PredictEm.com:

“Washington head coach Johnson said he wants his team to play at a fast pace, with shots taken within the first 8 seconds of their taking possession. That style of play is difficult enough to be successful at when you have experienced players who are used to playing with each other. It’s a recipe for disaster for a team with the inexperience and youth of this one. Expect a lot of turnovers and missed shots from the Mystics.”

In the WNBA preseason, guess which team had the lowest PPG on offense?

Yup, the Mystics.

Washington averaged 72 PPG, which was 11.6 points beneath the league average of 83.6.

And in just two games, they had 38 turnovers.

That’s an average of almost five turnovers per quarter!

It was only two games, but my expectation of turnovers and missed shots seems to be an accurate prognostication. (Yeah, I should probably come up with a better word for “prognostication” to use there, but I’m feeling lazy today.)

Preseason 2025

It’s preseason, so you can’t give it a lot of weight, but these two teams played in the preseason. Atlanta won, 80-70.

Based on the above, I’m going to lay the points with Atlanta today. The Dream had a dream off-season, picking up Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones to play alongside Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Jordin Canada.

Sports betting is always a bit of a crapshoot, even when you’re well informed and armed with stats and numbers. It’s even more so in the opening weeks of a season when you have no current data to work with. But it’s opening day, and I want it on the fun.

Buy this one early cuz I expect money to come in on the Fav and the line to go up.

My play:

Atl -6'

Same to you, good luck this season! 

WNBA Regular Season Wins article is up in the Web Promotions forum if you'd like some more food for thought.

I like GS Over. I got it at 7' but I can only find that at one book. The common number is 8' so that's what I used for the play. And because I don't post what I don't play I bought in at 8' too.

Also liking the Dream to win by double digits tomorrow.

Not huge investments for me, just some fun for a rooting interest throughout the season. 

Battling the Books: WNBA Season Win Bets

by R. B. D. Last updated May 14, 2025

The Golden State Valkyries

Apocalypse Now or Apocalypse Not?

The 2025 WNBA season begins on Friday, May 16th, and with it comes the inaugural season of the Golden State Valkyries.

Ya gotta admit – The Valkyries is kind of cool for a team name and uber-appropriate for a WNBA team.

Plus, it comes with a super cool, already-established fight song they can blare over the loudspeakers while the team takes the court. You can’t do any better than Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries” and the unforgettable images it provokes of Colonel Kilgore (Robert Duvall) and his Huey helicopters, machine guns blasting, descending on villagers on the Vietnamese beach in Francis Ford Coppola’s epic Apocalypse Now.

And how cool would it be if the entire arena of 20,000 fans (okay, it’s the WNBA, so 200 fans, unless Caitlin’s in town) sings/shouts out the Valkyrie war cry of, “Hoyo-toho! Hoyo-toho!” putting fear into the hearts of their visiting opponents.

Then again, this IS the WNBA, so they’re just as likely to play Helen Reddy’s “I Am Woman” or “A Woman’s Got the Power” by The A’s.

If it was up to me, I’d play The Stones “Under My Thumb.” (Yeah, I know – not everyone shares my sense of humor. And the world’s a lesser place because of it.)

But I digress.

Back to ‘capping.

The question for these Valkyries is - will the inaugural season be Apocalypse Now (destruction) or Apocalypse Not (success)?

Based on recent historical data, they’re more likely to be the villagers than the Huey’s.

The last time the league added a team was in 2008. The Atlanta Dream was more like the Atlanta Nightmare, winning just four of 30 games. That translates to a win percentage of just 11%.

Previous to that we had the 2006 Chicago Sky, who went 5-29, 14%.

Based on the results from the last two expansion teams, that looks like a steep hill to climb, which is why there’s higher juice on the Under at 8', -128.

The Valkaries do have some advantages over those last two expansion teams, such as an expanded free agency, which improves the pool of available players.

But let’s dig a little deeper.

I went back to the year 2000 when the league added four new teams.

Here’s what I see from that season:

Indiana Fever 9-23, 28%

Miami Sol 13-19, 40%

Portland Fire 10-22, 31%

Seattle Storm 6-26, 18%

Three of those four expansion teams would be a winner on an Over with a total of 8'.

I’m going to take a shot on the Valkyries to go Over based on the better talent pool they have to select from. And the extra four games can’t hurt.

My only concern, other than the horrendous record of the last two expansion teams, is Valkyries’ head coach Natalie Nakase.

In a recent interview, she said it’s okay for her players to screw up at first because that’s what coaches are for, to help players learn from their mistakes. “We’ll be focusing on process over results,” she said, and “It’s okay to fail.”

“It’s okay to fail??!!”

Vince Lombardi would be rolling in his grave if he heard that.

GS Ov 8', +104

Spottie:

"Mark my words the new team will make a few big upsets and probably early."

Agree. 

I'm taking their Regular Season Wins Total Over. I did a little research on this, I'll share what I found in a reply in this post (or the website promotion forum if I use the entire WNBA article, to credit the source.)

Just waiting for one or two more houses to put their lines up to get the best number and price. Right now I see two numbers being offered, 7' and 8'. 

Also, to misquote Van, I'm NOT "Into the Mystic(s)" (someone will get that reference, yes?) Taking them Under.

Spottie:

 "I can’t bet on a team that I have no clue on."

I did this a couple days ago.

I bet on the Kunming Monks.

I had no idea who they are.

I didn’t even know what sport or league they play in.

I logged into one of my books to check the morning NBA lines and at the top of the page I saw a game between the Kunming Monks and the Shanghai Five.

The Monks were -5', live.

I bet it on a whim simply because I think the Kunming Monks is a great name for a team.

At first glance I didn’t see the “n” in the middle of Kunming and thought it was the Kumming Monks, which, for obvious reasons, is an even cooler name than the Kunming Monks.

They won by double digits so it worked out well for me.

Sometimes life is cool that way.

Good luck to you this NBA season. I'll drop in once in a while if I have something worth sharing.

Correction on the above, was supposed to read: "get the HOME win here."