steponaduck

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 7/20/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.98u
UTSA to win AAC +750 1.33u to win 9.98u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u

Conference RR Lotto: 5's, 4's, 3's
1. UTSA 2. Liberty 3. Buffalo 4. JMU 5. Fresno State 6. Utah

Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)
Akron under 4.5 -115 (MGM)
New Mexico State under 4.5 +120 (DK)
California under 5.5 +120 (MGM)
Marshall under 5.5 -110 (B365)
Colorado under 6.5 -140 (B365)
Jacksonville State under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Arkansas State under 5.5 -155 (CZR)
San Diego State over 4.5 -105 (DK)
BYU under 7.5 +140 (B365)
KANSAS under 7.5 -158 (FD)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD) + NW +7 (CZR) ADDED 1/2 unit here.
Michigan -34.5 (CZR)
Buffalo +18.5 (CZR)
GOY: UGA -6.5 vs Tennessee (wk 3)
GOY: Washington -10.5 vs Wazzu (wk 4)

Added another RSW play to the card for this upcoming 2025 college football season. KANSAS under 7.5 regular season wins- wager placed at FanDuel -158. Aside from the personnel losses for kansas (38 seniors, top 6 WR, top RB, 3 OL, 9 of 11 top tacklers, significant defensive losses at all three layers of the defense, special teams contributors gone) KU is breaking in new coordinators, with a ton of pressure put on the shoulders of Jalon Daniels. While proven to be a miracle worker, Lance Leipold's #1 goal has got to be to fight, scrap and claw their way back to a bowl game. The schedule: I have this bunch underdogs of 7+ points five times this upcoming season. 1. At Mizzou 2. At Texas Tech 3. Kansas State 4. At Iowa State 5. Utah I have three (projected) coin flips: Cincinnati, At UCF, At Arizona Twice this team will be favored by (projected) 4-5ish at home hosting OK State and WVU If Kansas proves to be feistier than we all think, and they secure their 6th win on the road at Arizona, they would have to go on the road At Iowa State and win, along with hosting Utah (both spreads project KU 7+ pt dogs) securing wins in both of these situations for this wager to lose. Point being, assuming 8 wins here from KU is a tall ask. Im not buying it with the significant losses, question marks everywhere but QB, and a schedule that is tricky. UNDER

@dustmiester

 Sam Houston state won’t play an ounce of defense this season. 

@maxwagers781

 The wazzu game is at home in Oxford, MS

My advice, brother,

1. Don’t parlay these futures

2. Bet them in April/May to get ahead of the movement and juice. 

I have personally played Jacksonville State under, Washington state under, Marshall under

Hawaii has so many problems internally right now, and their performances on the road under Timmy Chang have me extremely concerned about their win total. I think its complete scramble mode to make a bowl game this year for Hawaii, and we are still yet to know if the new QB is a major dude, or if the success he showed in limited action was attributed to New Mexico and Utah State defensively being complete turds. 

If you believe they are upgraded at every position offensively as Phil suggests, then maybe this year is the year they get the Run N. Shoot humming. Defensively they should be solid. 

specific to the stanford situation- this is a spot Hawaii has performed very poorly in- in recent memory. 0-5 ATS in their home openers the last 5 seasons, and we have examples against Stanford, Vanderbilt, and even bad FCS teams where hawaii has just looked terrible to open the season. I would not want to bet into it here in week 1. They could win and cover, but I want to see it first. 

This team is not ascending. look who they defeated last year- FCS Delaware State, FCS Northern Iowa, Nevada, Fresno State, New Mexico. 

-Just have to see it first in order to want to bet this one. 

@Mskeets

 I think LSU is loaded with talent once again, the key is if they can unlock the defensive potential, get those guys to be in position to make plays, and get stops. Offensively even with some losses, as long as they can shore up the OL tackle positions, I think LSU could surprise, and potentially be a top 4 sec program, which should make them a fringe playoff team. 

didnt mean it that way, but I have had some opportunities come up and I will appear on many video and podcast productions so be sure to turn in. 

@JJWoods

 Thank you, unfortunately my participation in the forum this year will be significantly truncated. I have contractual obligation with two companies to provide college football gambling related content for them with exclusivity with my selections. 

I will chime in from time to time, and will happily have open Dialogue with anybody who wants to have a discussion with me.

my plays will still be available, and my thoughts will also be available, it will just be through a different medium

steponaduck on X: ""Refreshing the post" so to speak...pertaining to San Diego State. My thoughts early would have taken under at 6.5. I thought the RSW would be 5.5 which I think is a fair number. we have a number posted at 4.5 juiced under, but I can totally see offensive turn around in year two https://t.co/fUh1YXHM1K" / X

"Refreshing the post" so to speak...pertaining to San Diego State. My thoughts early would have taken under at 6.5. I thought the RSW would be 5.5 which I think is a fair number. we have a number posted at 4.5 juiced under, but I can totally see offensive turn around in year two for Sean Lewis. Re-analyzing the schedule this group is very capable of plucking off Wazzu or Cal and the road trip to NIU is certainly winnable. The first two conference games hosting CSU and @ Nevada provide opportunities for wins. Very fortunate to host wyoming, as you do not want to play in laradise in November...woof. @ Hawaii is winnable and this bunch should be locked in on making a bowl game at this point in the season. Boise and Jose will be tough, but Jose is not out of the question as a home spot where they could be in that game late. I see 9 winnable games and this group could be favored in 6-7. With a win total this low, an improving team, and a group that will have plenty of shots on goal, this group should have plenty of chances to rack up the wins. The defense looks ready to go with 10 starters back on D and a much more improved secondary. Special teams operation and coverage units are shored up okay. We should see a massive uptick in quarterback play this year, which was such a crutch for this team last season. You have come to know and love me as a regular season win "UNDER" bettor, but this number appears too low, and so for the first time in 2025, I am playing OVER a win total. SDSU over 4.5 -105, DK.

Here were my thoughts way back in april when I posted about SDSU before we had win total numbers. 

RSW Analysis: You could argue that no MWC team had worse quarterback play than the Aztecs last season as quarterbacks combined to throw for just 206 yards per game and 15 total touchdowns while taking 33 sacks. The bright spot was RB. M. Cooper who is gone, and the RB room will need to be shored up. Aztecs bring in some Big10 beef to bolster the OL, but will also be relying on FCS transfers to contribute so the OL and how they perform will undoubtedly be important. TWO transfer quarterbacks transfer in and SDSU will certainly be more equipped to run their style of offense. Texas A&M WR transfer Jacob Bostick should contribute immediately in the passing game, and having a dynamic athlete at quarterback will pay dividends. The defense kept SDSU competitive last year and leading sack man Trey White (13 sacks LY) should cause issues in opponents backfields. The defense remains in good shape here. I would not be surprised if SDSU picks off Cal or Wazzu in non-con action and a road trip to NIU is winnable. Conference play sets up okay as well with some winnable road games and catching Colorado State, Wyoming and San Jose St. at home. If the offense takes a big step forward this season, there is no question SDSU could be bowl eligible. This RSW will all depend on how the books perceive not only the Aztecs, but other teams in the league bunched together at the bottom. With only one assured win (FCS Opener) there are many coin flips, which could result in a higher variance season. I could see SDSU open 5-1, or 1-5, depending on how key pieces show up and perform. I would want 6.5 to play under (we wont see that number), but I assume this opens 5.5. Pass for me.

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/26/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.98u
UTSA to win AAC +750 1.33u to win 9.98u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u

Conference RR Lotto: 5's, 4's, 3's
1. UTSA 2. Liberty 3. Buffalo 4. JMU 5. Fresno State 6. Utah

Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)
Akron under 4.5 -115 (MGM)
New Mexico State under 4.5 +120 (DK)
California under 5.5 +120 (MGM)
Marshall under 5.5 -110 (B365)
Colorado under 6.5 -140 (B365)
Jacksonville State under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Arkansas State under 5.5 -155 (CZR)
San Diego State over 4.5 -105 (DK)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD) + NW +7 (CZR) ADDED 1/2 unit here.
Michigan -34.5 (CZR)
Buffalo +18.5 (CZR)
GOY: UGA -6.5 vs Tennessee (wk 3)
GOY: Washington -10.5 vs Wazzu (wk 4)

This arkansas state group was as fortunate as it gets last season as we saw the Red Wolves routinely win the squeakers. Needing miracle comebacks against Central Arkansas and Tulsa were telling enough, but this team was able to capitalize against opponent misfortune against South Alabama, Troy, Ga St, and ULM before defeating BG in the bowl game. Against the upper eschelon of the SBC last season Ark State was blown out. The defense is breaking in a new DC and new schemes and while fortuitous at times last season I am very skiptical of all three defensive units this season. The group allowed 5.7 yards per carry last year and 63% completion percentage. The offense returns QB Raynor but I am concerned about losing 4/5 top receivers from last year and 4/5 on the offensive line. This team is going to have to outscore opponents this season in order to stay in games and I am not confident that the offense will have the explosivity or intestinal fortitude in the trenches to hold up. Just looking at the slate, I have this team underdogs in 8 games, although not significant underdogs. The Non Con is tough with Arkansas and Iowa State on the slate followed by an immeidate roady at Kennesaw State. All of the SBC home games (Texas State, Ga South, Sou Miss, ULL) are going to be extremely tough, so the winnables are mostly on the road. Even so, at ULM, South Alabama, Troy and App are no picnics. I could see a 1-3 or 2-2 start and the four game stretch of Texas State, South Alabama, Ga Southern, Troy and Sou. Miss could be trouble. While not out of the question, this group would likely have to win their last three games for this win total to go over, playing Southern Miss (who is off a bye), Louisiana, and at App State. My overall sentiment is that this team is headed for major regression this upcoming season and we already saw chinks in the armour last year as the OL gave up 35 sacks and 70 tackles for loss, the majority of that coming in the back half of the slate. This could go sideways quickly. Under.

added a few to the RSW card. will write those up here and on blue bird and submit my thoughts for those interested. 

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/26/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.98u
UTSA to win AAC +750 1.33u to win 9.98u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u

Conference RR Lotto: 5's, 4's, 3's
1. UTSA 2. Liberty 3. Buffalo 4. JMU 5. Fresno State 6. Utah

Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)
Akron under 4.5 -115 (MGM)
New Mexico State under 4.5 +120 (DK)
California under 5.5 +120 (MGM)
Marshall under 5.5 -110 (B365)
Colorado under 6.5 -140 (B365)
Jacksonville State under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Arkansas State under 5.5 -155 (CZR)
San Diego State over 4.5 -105 (DK)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD) + NW +7 (CZR) ADDED 1/2 unit here.
Michigan -34.5 (CZR)
Buffalo +18.5 (CZR)
GOY: UGA -6.5 vs Tennessee (wk 3)
GOY: Washington -10.5 vs Wazzu (wk 4)

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/19/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.98u
UTSA to win AAC +750 1.33u to win 9.98u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u

Conference RR Lotto: 5's, 4's, 3's
1. UTSA 2. Liberty 3. Buffalo 4. JMU 5. Fresno State 6. Utah

Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)
Akron under 4.5 -115 (MGM)
New Mexico State under 4.5 +120 (DK)
California under 5.5 +120 (MGM)
Marshall under 5.5 -110 (B365)
Colorado under 6.5 -140 (B365)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD) + NW +7 (CZR) ADDED 1/2 unit here.
Michigan -34.5 (CZR)
Buffalo +18.5 (CZR)
GOY: UGA -6.5 vs Tennessee (wk 3)
GOY: Washington -10.5 vs Wazzu (wk 4)

Northwestern

tulsa

southern miss

air force 

buffalo

I just cannot get to 7 wins on the schedule for this group with what they have coming back and factoring the lost production for Colorado. When looking at the returning production, the offensive line was patch-worked together last year and without focusing on the run game the unit allowed 43 sacks and countless other QB pressures and havoc worthly plays that did not result in sacks due to S. Sanders QB heroics. The team ran for just 65 yards per game on just 2.5 yards per carry on the season. This year they lose their Starting center, one interior gaurd and RT also departs so once again this OL is going to rely heavily on transfers to get the job done. With Sanders off to the NFL along withtheir four top pass catchers from last season this colorado offense is less likely to be dynamic and big play capable, and will have no choice but to rely on the offensive line and run the football at some point this season. The group brings In Salter from Liberty but interestingly enough Phil hass 17-year old true freshman Juju Lewis slated as the number 1, and I cannot imagine Salter left Liberty to sit on the bench in Boulder. The defensive line could have an impact in many games if the G5 transfers hit but this is still a question mark with the production lost from last year. The secondary losses loom large with Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter off to the NFL, along with additional contributors and role players departing. Special teams graded out just 111th last year in the Phil rankings, and with key special teams contributors gone, this unit is not likely to be exceedingly impactful once again. The schedule is brutal in facing GT in the opener, along with K State, ASU, Utah, BYU, Iowa State, TCU, and Houston and WVU on the road. Just not alot of turds in the bunch and while this colorado team still has talent, getting back to a bowl game and WINNING that bowl game should be quite the accomplishment for the Buffalos this season. The market on this RSW under 6.5 is anywhere from -170 all the way up to -210 so at -140/-150 This number is worth a play here in my opinion. I feel the fair number is 5.5 and we are still getting some helmet sticker respect here given the heroics and dazzling play of the buffs last season. It took squeakers against NDSU and a hail mary against Baylor, and they also faced DESCENDING teams in UCF, Arizona, Utah and OK State that were far from competitive down the stretch. The schedule stiffens in a big way this year. UNDER

A significant amount of production last season from both sides of the ball. Concern again is a patch-worked offensive line and a group that could not run the ball effectively last season (65 yards per game, 2.5 YPC) and at times showed tendency to abandon the run game...Completely. Without the heroics of Shedeur Sanders and their four top pass catchers from last season, this offensive unit is going to have a lot of re-tooling to work on, and "not" running the football should be considered NOT AN OPTION here. This group faced plenty of...descending b12 teams last year including OK State, Utah, Cincy, Arizona, UCF, and took a hail mary to beat Baylor. there were 43 sacks given up by the OL and countless other pressures and havoc plays that Sanders had to wiggle out of. Without the poise of SS to do that...again this season we should see less heroisms and less explosivity out of CU. When lining up against BYU, K state, Utah, ASU, Iowa State, etc. this team is going to have to lean in on the run game in order to stay in games and if they cannot or are simply unwilling to run...the football this could spell trouble. Interestingly Phil has the true freshman QB lewis starting ahead of K. Salter, who xfers in from Lib. cannot see that going well in the locker room as I cannot imagine he came all the way out there to sit on the sidelines. maybe they rotate?defensively the group seems okay overall but still replaces significant production with 3 rock solid DL gone, and plenty of talent lost in the secondary. just feels like a bunch going sideways while everyone else is getting better, the schedule really toughens up. I have this...Colorado group decided underdogs (7+ points) in 6 games this year, while being slight underdogs in three others. (could be coin flips against UH and WVU) team could be favored in as little as 4 games this year and would require three legitimate upsets to clear this win total.

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/14/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.98u
UTSA to win AAC +750 1.33u to win 9.98u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u

Conference RR Lotto: 5's, 4's, 3's
1. UTSA 2. Liberty 3. Buffalo 4. JMU 5. Fresno State 6. Utah


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)
Akron under 4.5 -115 (MGM)
New Mexico State under 4.5 +120 (DK)
California under 5.5 +120 (MGM)
Marshall under 5.5 -110 (B365)
Colorado under 6.5 -140 (B365)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD) + NW +7 (CZR) ADDED 1/2 unit here.
Michigan -34.5 (CZR)
Buffalo +18.5 (CZR)