steponaduck

added california under 5.5 Regular season wins +120 over at MGM

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/8/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.8u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)
Akron under 4.5 -115 (MGM)
New Mexico State under 4.5 +120 (DK)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD)

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/4/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.8u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD)

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/2/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.8u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD)

Woop woop 

Tulane did a really nice job rallying the troops after suffering losses in competitive games against K-St and Oklahoma. After a close road win against ULL, this group blew through the AAC schedule with relative ease until the loss against memphis the last week of the season. The loss against Army in the AAC title game was not shocking in and of itself, but the way this bunch was so out of position on defense, and the lack of execution offensively was stunning. this team was just simply not ready to play, nor were they in the bowl game after suffering a plethora of opt outs. This year Tulane seeks to run the table again and they are the conference favorite at the time of writing this. The Green Wave do lose significant pieces offensively including Darian Mensah at QB,Makhi Hughes if off to Oregon, four of the top 5 pass catchers are gone, three on the OL are gone, and there is a complete revamp in the heart of the defense, the DL. The way the schedule sets up with Northwestern, Duke and Ole Miss on the schedule along with road trips to South Alabama, UTSA and Memphis, my opinion is that there is too much to overcome to assume this team is 9-3 or better once again. This proud bunch can still accomplish quite a bit this season including potentially winning the league, but the Non-conf. is tricky this year. Home bouts with ECU and Army wont be cake walks either. With odds on the regular season win all over the map, I was able to find under 8.5 +110, over at Bet MGM. this under is priced at anywhere from -120 to -135 at other shops, so the general market consensus is that this team is going to take a step back this season.

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/1/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26 u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD)

Timmy Chang was a heralded football player in his heroic days playing for the Rainbow Warriors but his coaching stint has been accompanied by frustration, lack of execution and underwhelming offenses in seasonal totality. I just cannot explain how a guy who ran the system so effectively couldn’t get Braeden Shager up to speed consistently enough to be effective, consistently needing to be bailed out by the deep ball. The offensive line was such a turd unit last season surrendering 78 TFLs and 43 sacks. Shager was consistently running for his life and countless throw-aways, scrambles, and incomplete passes (57% completions) were the result. 19 TDs is obscenely low here at Hawaii where quarterbacks routinely pass for 30-40 scores, and the run game was so pathetic with all Hawaii players totaling 1 rushing score outside of QB B. Shager's 6. A consistent staple of the run and shoot offense is consistent performance in standard downs and keeping ahead of the chains. Third + 4th down should be a breeze for this pass happy bunch and yet, the bows were in third down a ton and converted at a woeful 37% clip on the season. The defense kept this group in some games this year but as is the case concomitant to high travel, the road performances left a lot to be desired. 2024 saw Hawaii defeat 2 FCS opponents, Nevada, New Mexico, and Fresno state (1 point win, Hawaii was down 20-7 with 4 minutes remaining. miracle win). With two P5 foes on the slate, along with SHSU who defeated Hawaii by 18 last year, and facing 7 of the top 8 in MWC play, I feel the mountain is too big a climb to surpass 6.5 RSW. A fair number is 5.5 as I feel this team will compete hard and fight, claw and scratch their way to a chance at bowl eligibility in the final week, but I cannot see this team ascending to a position where they win 7 games. Terrible in the redzone (24/42), terrible on third down, couldn’t run the ball, couldn’t sustain drives. Too big a hill to climb. Even with penciling them in at home against Stanford (no easy task), this bunch will struggle to make a bowl game and Timmy C might be surfing by thanksgiving. UNDER.

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/28/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26 u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25

Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u

Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u

Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u

Virginia to win ACC 200/1  .05u to win 10u

Tulsa to win AAC 300/1  .05u to win 15u

Regular Season Wins Card:

Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)

Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)

South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)

Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:

Week 1:

Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)

ECU +14 (CZR)

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25

Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u

Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u

Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u

Virginia to win ACC 200/1  .05u to win 10u

Regular Season Wins Card:

Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)

Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)

South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:

Week 1:

Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)

ECU +14 (CZR)

i will deep dive into tcu today for you brother and shoot over my opinion on the Frogs. Havent sniffed around too much at them yet, admittedly. 

Fireside Football Podcast - Episode #12 - Special Guest - Joshua Nunn

It was a privilege to have a discussion with Ron Marmalefsky on his podcast, and we discussed the changing landscape of the sport, offseason prep, and regular season wins.

tune in~!

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25

Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u

Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u

Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u

Virginia to win ACC 200/1  .05u to win 10u

Regular Season Wins Card:

Nevada under 4.5 -155

Bowling Green under 6.5 -115

Bowling green certainly made a splash hire in Eddie George from the FCS ranks, and this bunch will certainly have their work cut out for them in the early portion of their schedule. Non-con includes Cincy, Lib and Louisville and they open MAC play with Ohio and Toledo. Woah!  A 1-5 start is not unrealistic and with a new coach coaching at a new level, he might feel a bit of pressure in the back half of the slate. Could potentially see them rally the troops and scratch across 6-6 but games against CMU, EMU and Buff will be no picnic. I have major concerns with a defense that loses half of their DL, every starter at linebacker and half of the contributors in the secondary. overall returning defensive production is just 30% (bottom 10 FBS) and this team is going to have to find some continuity on defense. really hard to see things coming together in year one here given the talent losses and super rough opening start. How are they going to replace Harold Fannin? just not seeing what they brought in being able to lock in like HF did all season for BG. QB is okay, no wow-factor. Skill guys average.

I wont bore you with the monotony of the position by position. This team struggled badly on 3rd down last year and really struggled in the RZ. could not run the ball for 1st downs when needed, and were just soft late in the MAC season. I think we are getting an extra win based on the two exceptional performances we saw from BG in hostile roadies at Penn State and TAMU, and some excitement around the coaching hire. Based on the talent i see here and the difficulty of the schedule it will be a miracle if this bunch stays engaged the entire season. under

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115

i secured a position tonight on bowling green under 6.5 RSW 

Exquisite write up which mimics our conversation off line. 

bridge is in the lab deep diving the college leagues. 

I put in a position today on Nevada UNDER 4.5 regular season wins -155. I bet this at -150 but for tracking and record keeping purposes will use the current available line after my wager has settled. I am not overly fond of what UNR has returning on both sides of the ball. I have major concerns in the secondary, which was a strength for Nevada last year. Very surprising pass defense performances that are unlikely to be replicated. Quarterback is a concern as is Chubba Purdy/AJ Bianco are attempting to replace Brendon Lewis who xfer to memphis.FCS talent inserted in the LT and LG positions are concerning, along with losing most of the meager production generated with the defensive front seven. Very Very little pass rush and havoc generated will lead to plenty of explosives given up in the pass game, I would expect The nevada defense to regress and without having continuity in the skill room, and a subpar quarterback situation, hard for me to get behind this team. I was assuming a RSW of 3.5, 4.0 tops. instead we get a break with 4.5 being released.

I am not sure if they are baking in an FCS win, but they are hosting SAC state, who is loading up their roster with FBS talent and will surely show up in this spot to grab an FBS win for their ascending program. oh yeah, they have to double back for that one after happy valley, C-USA foes MTSU and WKU also do not provide assured wins on the slate, and facing Fresno, Nevada, Boise, and San Jose St (top 4 projected) make this slate even more daunting. I could see this team very likely at 2-7 after a road loss at utah state, and just dont see what they are drawing from when they square off against San Jose St, Wyoming and UNLV late in the year. Projected spreads have UNR a double digit dog in 7,  likely favored in 2-3 games. how is this group winning 5 this season. I just dont see it with the slate and what they have to work with

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio  Updated 5/18/25

Utah to win the B12 +1400  0.5 to win 7.0u

Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u

Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u

I am betting Middle Tennessee State to win Conference USA at +2500 at Draft Kings. The fair market price at other books is anywhere between 16/1 and 18/1. I actually placed this wager at +3000 today, and the odds have been adjusted accordingly so Ill track and recommend at +2500.