Rush51

Also, just a note when it comes to Turnover Margins.  Certainly, the defense plays a part in the final result, but I put a greater premium on the QB's performance that influences the final outcome.  

 You may win your over bets, but it's not due to some "regression to the mean."  If you had the same bozos throwing the football for CLE, JAX, TEN this year as you did for the majority of last year, well,  you'd likely have more dismal performance, and bad TO margins.  And what do bad TO margins lead to ?  More losses.   Do you really think of winning football when you have DTR, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones, Will Levis, and Mason Rudolph leading the charge ? 

What's ironic is that you may win your bets , but you're completely disregarding how the incoming QBs influence these TO outcomes.   And TEN looks most problematic , because you are guaranteed to start a rookie QB mated to a poorly run franchise, with an unimpressive head coach in Callahan.  

Have you considered for a moment how the QB influences those outcomes ?   You act as though TOs happen by happenstance.  

@tahoejoe2  

@Vanrush  

I do like DEN getting off to a good start playing TEN & IND in the opening weeks.  That should help them build some momentum as their schedule gets tougher.  

GL w/ the plays.  

For all you guys in love with DEN...and I'm seeing a lot of it..consider this.   They won 1 game last year against teams with a winning record.  One.   (and that excludes their last game of the season when KC didn't play starters).  I couldn't believe this stat when I first heard it, and had to dig through their entire schedule to confirm it as true.. 

So, you had better hope that defense steps up, because the level of competition has just stepped up a notch for QB Bo Nix, too....    

Hollywood is the deep threat, regardless of how soft you think he is.... and being soft is  something I've never seen out of the guy... 

[Quote: Originally Posted by JJWoods]Fade the superbowl loser every year….like clockwork.  Chiefs will regress….[/Quote]

There's a lot of similarities to how the Chiefs lost their Super Bowls against the Bucaneers & Eagles;  They got dominated on the Offensive Line.    KC did just fine the following year after losing to TB in the Super Bowl, losing to CIN the following year in the AFC Championship.  I anticipate them addressing this glaring shortfall yet again.  And KC should have both WRs Hollywood Brown & Rashee Rice available for most of this upcoming year (Rice may still be suspended a few games)... something they didn't have for most of last year.

I don't think they regress as much as most people think.. 

Very interesting..  

I'm really curious to see how DET responds to both their OC and DC moving on to take head coaching positions.  Can DET pick up where they left off last year ?  (And I'm not sure how much stock to put in their playoff performance when their coordinators had already interviewed/taken new positions.  Such a distraction).  

I like coach MCDC in DET, and I think he'll have his coaches and players ready in 2025.  Contrast this with PHI a few years ago in the latter half of 2023, when the wheels fell off and team seemed lost after their OC and DC changes. 

MCDC is better than  Siriani IMHO.  I'm banking the same mistakes don't occur w/ a better coach throughout the season.  

.. What do you like about GB, and/or dislike about DET. 

I would expect the team that's starting "virtually" a rookie QB to be that team.  

@cocky24

 You don't need the Giants to shock the "Redskins"... 

You just need the NYG to "compete" better than they did last year.  Russell is on the downslope of his career, but he is likely an upgrade to Daniel Jones , and that potential upgrade speaks a lot to how well a team can compete on the field.  

Also, I get the sense the Redskins "overachieved" last year, and a sophomore slump is a real thing w/ QBs.  Just go ask CJ Stroud.  

I won't be playing this one, but if I were, I'd be taking NYG+7. 

Angels 

This ain't the same team from last year....   It is , but......    

Just cheer on Buffalo.  You're just over the Lake of Ontario from Toronto.  

@FredLeonard

 New GM, New HC (who's never been an NFL HC before), and new QB (who appears to be a mediocre QB) ... There are teams w/ some sort of stability looking to take the next step,.... and then there's teams like  the Jets with a lot of moving parts whose next move appears lower.  

Seriously, what's the point .  Seems silly throwing your $ away just for entertainment value  

Good write-up Nature.. I would say that the geo-political "temperature" is probably more important to the prospects of any of these individual defense contractors (like Lockheed) than anything else.  And now that things seem to be settling down (for now) in the Middle East, I would expect these companies to give back some of their gains this year, including Lockheed as you mentioned. 

"ITA"  is the iShares U.S. aerospace and defense ETF.   If I were to make a bet on the geo-political temperature (something I'm not interested in doing), investing in this ETF is probably a safer route.   Lockheed is a holding in the ETF, as well as the other usual suspects in defense contractors like Boeing, L3 Harris, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics, just to name a few...  

@artdb

 I've seen it.  ... It's one of the 40 stocks or so on my stock screener.. 

I hope it continues working out for you !  It was always a small position for me, but other holdings,  including UBER, NFLX, CRWD in particular , are roaring here in the just completed first half of the year.  

Here's to a profitable 2nd half of the year for all of us.  

As an Angels Fan, I'm happy to see the young guys start to take some ownership that is now "their team," instead of looking to Trout for leadership..  something he doesn't have.  They have a young nucleus that hopefully will be around awhile.  O'Hoppe, Shanuel, Neto, Adell, and recently brought up Christian Moore. 

I think I stated this earlier,  (and stated this to a friend years ago) that I wish they would've traded Trout years ago and gotten a few high quality pitchers.   It frustrates me to think how much better this team "could be."

That ship has sailed a long time ago .  

@Digitalkarma

 On the Massey Ratings, it's hard to see how BAL moves up to #1 when they've lost arguably the best kicker of all time.... this despite key acquisitions w/ Jaire Alexander and D-Hop. 

The Packers at #5 is a real surprise.  I wouldn't put them as a top 5 team..   

49ers seemed to have invested in their key offensive players (save Deebo).  Fred Warner anchors the defense, and I think bringing back Saleh again at DC will get him to develop another solid defensive unit.  He is a very overlooked piece IMHO. 

Can I impart some wisdom on when to use teasers ?  It sure isn't in the beginning of the season when lines are likely to be a bit looser, compared to later in the year when lines are tighter and more data is available ( for the books).