LAGameofInches

I'm still using the voice dictation so apologies if the post has grammatical errors or is a little bit long. But I was just in the car and I heard a pretty captivating conversation with someone who runs one of the sports books in Vegas. He actually began by saying that Vegas has been cleaning up in baseball post All-Star break. He added that this is the most amount of runs scored after the All-Star break in the history of major league baseball. Stating that the league has actually made a concerted effort to try and drive scoring and thus viewership much in the same manner, the NFL, NBA, and NHL all intentionally overhauled their scoring to help bring more excitement to the game.

He said that never before have there been so many runs scored after the eighth inning and credits. This obviously to bad bullpens. But he went on to say that part of the reason the bullpens are so bad is because of the way they are comprised in today's game. It used to be that old, wily veterans, who used to be starters, would end their career in the bullpen. Additionally, starting pitchers would go seven innings or complete games even on a regular basis. That isn't the case anymore as viewers have all wanted to see guys who throw very hard versus guys who just get people out. Because, as you know, if these bigger, stronger hitters, get a hold of a 100 mph fastball. It will go a lot farther than 80 mph curveball.

Lastly, and not to be forgotten, the drastic shifts of the past handful of years are no longer. That means there are a lot more base runners, but otherwise would've hidden to an out. Just think back to how many times a middle infield are would be in the short outfield because of a shift and be able to get to a ball there otherwise would've been a single instead of creating an out. That lengthens the game.

And of course, finally, there is the pitch clock. This has created more injuries (especially if you speak to the pictures directly) and has attitude to more scoring, especially, he said, in the first standings. Which has yet another bet the public seems to love.

Just wanted to share what I heard because I thought it was really interesting and I've gotten ass slammed since I started posting after the All-Star break. There have been a couple guys on the forum that have been really good, but most have stubbornly been mediocre at best. This might help explain some of the why.

Things will settle and Brewers have good bullpen.  Maybe some grabbed it live with an inflated total.  I've seen hyped games like this have little to no scoring the rest of the way after a wild 1st inning.  Crazy thing is Mis is going to still hit his K prop lol.

Speaking of wild, that Toronto game is a complete score fest.  Good thing for you the Blue Jays seem to do a lot of their damage later in games and don't disagree with what you stated about O's bullpen 

Ooof, good luck.  Bassitt really bad lifetime vs. O's and on road this year.  I can see both teams scoring quite a bit tonight given the heat and way the ball has been flying out of Camden Yards and the shorter fences that will help sluggers like Guerrero and Barger.

Woodruff really good vs. Marlins lifetime.  I need to take a day or two off from posting seems anything I write up has issues and those I don't cash.  Just not sustainable nor fun so I'll be watching your plays.  I do very much like the FH UNDER but it's so low at 3.5 though Brewers have been in a rut Perez real good.  Woodruff also has a solid chance for a K prop he's been really locked in since being back not having walked a single runner.  I imagine that changes to some degree today.

My biggest play would have been the Rangers, the Braves have little chance and are mired in bad luck as well.  Plus you get into their bullpen and it's disaster for them like so many teams.

@Cranky_Hank

I think you have a good over in that A's / Astros game.  Brown has been human of late and Lopez isn't great on the road.

Will update record shortly using phone and one hand so challenging atm.  It's not very good though I did have some luck last night.  Straight into today.

ARIZONA (-135) & ARIZONA FH -1/2 (-120)...BIG PLAY!!!:  This is when baseball can get interesting. I think Merrill Kelly continues his dominance of the Pirates and his incredibly strong season. Ketel Marte is one of the best left-handed pitchers and I believe the diamondbacks get to Heaney early and continue throughout the game. Kelly is also a big name on the trade market and I think you only see his value rise after today.

MILWAUKEE (-160):  This is about as high as I will go on a side but Quintana has not only had a very strong season, but is very strong career against the Marlins. I'd like to think this will be a walk in the park, but it seems to be never that easy. Junk has been mediocre of late and a little worse on the road. Pretty confident ere.

CLEVELAND GM 2 (+105):  Bubic hasn't been great lifetime against Cleveland and is only 2-5 this year at home.  Its a tough matchup for KC facing Bibee but maybe emotional win in Gm 1 carries over so I'm not making this a big play

BALTIMORE FH -1/2 (-155)...BIG PLAY!!!:   laying a lot of units here, but I like the spot a lot. The Orioles will absolutely get to Senzetela and Rogers has been quite good since he's come back from the IL. I can't see the Rockies putting too many up on him.

Have more later but obviously wanna feel this out and need to update and post record.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all.

It will go under.  We forget some do.  Also not to forget the Phils aren't awesome on the road the Yankees bullpen blew up last night.  But I suck rn though these early games on Saturday tend to lean lower scoring,

sick day bro 

wow great call now if you can just get the sweeeeeeep 

Quickly adding:

UNDER 8 -115 (ATL/TEX)...BIG PLAY!!!:  The Rangers have Nate Eovaldi back on the mound and a very generous umpire behind the plate. The Braves have been playing far better at home than on the road, but they throw out the left hander and the rangers struggle against the LHP. I think this is one of those typical Nate Eovaldi games and you can expect something low scoring as he stabilize the Braves bats.

Going to start posting some soccer players, especially given how horrible my baseball plays have been. I'm also using voice dictation so if you wanna know anything else that's horrible try using this.  These are the first MLS plays, so there is no record until after tonight.

NYFC PK (-115):   I believe that NYFC have never lost the Dallas on the road. Dallas is also missing a couple key players and while I can see this being a tie, I'm not confident enough to pass up on the Pick.

OVER 3 (LAG/HOU):   both teams are missing defenders, which I think will lead to more scoring opportunities. The galaxy hemorrhage goals on the road and so I think this is a really good spot for the over.

LAFC FH (-114):  LAFC have for all intense and purposes been the best first half team in the MLS. It's not saying too much but that's enough for me to play them against the team they pretty much own on their own field.

That will be it for today not sure how many people will even look at this, but as always, tail or fade good luck to all.

Quick winner.  Congrats and it's + money.  Hope the Brewers bats wake up for you too 

@Brooklyncapper I'm not sure about a LOT but you need some more depth as Garrett hasn't been as good of late as earlier and Soto helps with that.

You really need Soto and the guys to start catching fire in unison instead of trading places as to which is hottest 

YTD (MLB):  2-12 (BIG PLAY!!!: 0-2)

I'm not sure how I can make this up, but I'm also not sure what I've been missing with all of these games. The frustration on my side is real because the games that I don't post and I end up playing win and there's no superstition that you can connect with that. So I just need to keep plowing along because I know the system and analytics that I utilize to handicap the games actually works. One thing that it does not take into account are the crazy amount of errors and fielding gaffs that I've witnessed this season. One reason for this that nobody is talking about is because we don't have the extreme shifts anymore. That has led to higher scoring and obviously hitters that have applauded the rule change.

Still, that's no excuse for the plight that I've had.  There are a lot of games and Fridays seem to be very challenging given the fanfare for weekend games and in many cases the starting of a new series. Nevertheless, I'm hoping for a monster evening.

ARIZONA (-110)...BIG PLAY!!!:   the diamondbacks are a team that I follow and for that reason, I feel comfortable, backing them here. They have made a habit of looking lifeless on a home stand and then hitting the road and catching fire. I think the day off has done them quite a bit of good and the trade of Naylor will potentially serve as a wake up call to those who still wanna fight for the playoffs.  Ryne Nelson has been solid of late and I think Burrows is very hittable. The Pirates have been playing great baseball, but in this case I think the off day doesn't serve them as well and Arizona takes the first game in the series.

UNDER 4.5 FH (CLE/KC):   both pitchers here have been decent in the situations they find themselves in tonight. Michael Wacha has slightly over a two ERA when pitching at home and Gavin Williams has been pretty solid on the road. The Indians commit an incredible amount of errors which lead to runs and so that has me slightly worried, which is why I decided not to take the full game. Though it's tough to predict when errors occur I do think this game is tightly fought, and the Indians tend to score less on the road than at home.

SAN DIEGO (-130):   NICK PIVETTA IS THE BETTER PITCHER AND HE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD IN HIS CAREER AGAINST THE CARDINALS. THE WEATHER IS VERY MUCH THE SAME AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WHICH LED TO MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF SCORING AND HOME RUNS. THAT DOES WORRY ME A BIT, WHICH TOOK THIS FROM BEING A BIG PLAY but I think the Padres end up getting the second game in the series.

I'm gonna end the post here and come back a bit later as this voice dictation is driving me up a wall as you can tell from some of the capitalized prose above.  The early game is super interesting because Freddy Peralta has been the hottest pitcher and is unbeatable at home and almost just as good during the day. But the Marlins are pesky and Cal Quantrill has done pretty well against them in his career. I'm very tempted to go under in this game, but I'm still mulling it over. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all.

Crazy.  You at least have a shot @Brooklyncapper.  Like you and Weeble too who finally had a good night yesterday these games are just puzzling given stats and matchups and then boom, something completely outlandish happens. And it's most of the time been attached to errors and bullpens.

I'm committed to staying the course it will turn around always does.

@Brooklyncapper I agree especially on Olson as I played DET straight even though they are struggling they are sublime against LHP.  Thing that scared me here was the umpire Ramon de Jesus is extremely hitter friendly.  Then again I've sucked so what do I know really 

Neither pitcher has given up 4 ER's but once over their past 5 starts.  Gray got mauled in AZ his worst career start but is 3-0 with some miniscule ERA vs SD.  Combined with STL bats cold I'm laying off myself but I'll pull for you since I've sucked horribly since posting

@FredLeonard

Neither moved here a Ravens fan.  I prefer chargers but neither team do it for me currently.  I do love Nacua though.

YTD (MLB):  2-8 (BIG PLAY: 0-1)

awful and embarrassing start to the MLB ?? season for me. Especially after having taken a couple of years off. Maybe I'm just handicapping the game of yesterday and not the game of today?

Joking aside, I'm using voice dictation for this posting as my right hand is completely incapacitated due to my surgery yesterday. But there's one game I just cannot pass out today and I will go down in a ball of fire with it. And as bad as Detroit has been playing, they are great against left handers and really, really good at home.

Eric Lauer has been great for the Blue Jays. He is actually better at home than on the road but has been rather consistent this year. Overall, he has been horrible against Detroit going 0–2 with an ERA. Over 13. Now, I know this is not the same pitcher but he's facing a Detroit team that will be desperate for a win at one of the best teams on their home field. Combined with Reece Olson's strong pitching since returning from the IL and combining that with 0.55 ERA versus Toronto, I find this to be a very good spot for the Tigers to try and get right.

DETROIT (-135)...BIG PLAY!!!

I'm not completely certain this will be that high of a scoring game even provided that it will be 90° with some good humidity at game time. I think both these pitchers are very capable but I think Reece Olson is going to come out on top. Since I haven't been awesome I'd say tread lightly. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all.

I agree.  Kikuchi is 1-1 with a 0.69 ERA lifetime vs Seattle and is far better pitching at home.  I know its first game back from long road trip so thats why I might lean UNDER but I see the Angels in a solid spot tonight,