LAGameofInches

OVER 3 (-120) EINTRACHT FRANKFURT/BAYER LEVERKUSEN...BIG PLAY!!! 

Can't have a better day.  Hopefully you guys are making money with me as we have caught some sort of fire.  From being 10-10 we are now...

UPDATED YTD (SOCCER):  20-11 (BIG PLAY!!!: 7-1)

I will try to post later tonight since usually I miss posting on the early games of the weekend as I'm on PST so it's crazy early.  Only issue for me is that lineups aren't released up until close to game time so on those earlier weekend games I can sometimes get stuck backing a lesser starting 11.  But I will do my best to be back later for anyone who is interested.

@Brooklyncapper

Good luck friend .  I've also gone back to the annual crushing of soccer hadn't posted in a few weeks but that was more due to early seasons and international break.  Stop by and share any inputs.  

you my friend are a stone cold winner.  as am I at least on the Marseille part of the plays 

MARSEILLE FH (-125) W

I'm hoping (and expecting) that Frankfurt can get at least one goal and at worst push this out.  I'm confident we will be picking up 3 quick units and continuing to demolish soccer games :)

Good early win.  Agree on the AZ/MIN under.  

YTD (SOCCER):  17-11 (BIG PLAY!!!: 6-1)

Quite an incredible run of late but haven't posted in some time.  Hit 3 big plays last time out and feel as though there are some good enough angles today to post and put that record up for even better improvement.

OVER 3 (-120) EINTRACHT FRANKFURT/BAYER LEVERKUSEN...BIG PLAY!!!:  I usually don't like to hammer totals on a Friday, especially after the international break, but both these teams CAN score yet only one of them have done so this season.  I think that changes here as Leverkusen will want to make a strong showing for their new manager after Erik ten Haag was sacked after only 3 games in!  His style of play was completely opposite of the attacking style that Leverkusen have made a name for and their goals dried up as well.  I am pretty sure the new manager is being hired to change that pace of play and focus more on attacking.  Leverkusen have done well against Frankfurt at home but Frankfurt is the better team and also able to score with a top forward in Doan.  I think at worst this pushes but this is a sneaky total with a lot of value given the leadership change at Leverkusen 

MARSEILLE FH (-125):  I am pretty sure Marseille are not super happy with their start to the season but they are playing a Lorient team that just got hammered 7-1 at home against Lille right before the international break.  That said, Marseille are a far more dangerous team and even more so on their home soil.  I see them scoring in the FH and as confident as I am that they win the opening frame, I also don't want to risk a big play until I see more consistency from their back line.

I will be back tomorrow for a bevy of games and will try to post ahead of time, if anyone cares.  Otherwise, hope everyone is having a great few weeks and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

That's what I have been saying.  I made a post and have gone against the Rockies -1.5 for over 3 weeks and made a nice little ransom.  The analytics I have shared speak for themselves and I Personally might lose a game but most of the time the team loses outright to CO and so the price is greatly minimized.  I dont' tell anyone how to bet I just try to help with actual data and suggestions.  Hope you win tonight 

Been riding this angle out for weeks.  Like clockwork.  Only Dbacks bullpen one of the worst we have seen in baseball gifted the Rockies two wins when leading from a -1.5 position.  That cost me some units but nothing compared to the wins backing this trend

That keeps the mini streak going.  Feeling good heading into the weekend.  Hope everyone had a profitable night.

@LuckyGuy

RAVENS 

If you do lessen units imo both of those guys can be unhittable or batting practice.  Just so hard to trust Mets now but even harder for me to believe they actually do get swept with the other NL wildcard hunting teams breathing down their necks.  So they will need strong SP to avoid that from happening.

YTD (NFL):  5-5 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 1-2 ATS)

First of all, let us never forget this day almost 25 years ago.  To any of you who were subject to loss or PTSD from having been in/around the mass killing at the WTC, I join you in having this engrained in my life forever and I send you my sympathy if today poses a challenge.

As for the wagering side, last week was probably one of the strangest weeks in my NFL betting cycle.  I hopefully attribute that to it being the first week but I won on the Philly FH OVER, laid off the LAC/KC game which I would have lost on, and then came back with a horrid 0-3 morning in the NFL kickoff, losing a total of FIVE units b/c two of those plays were BIG PLAYS!  I couldn't get back on for the afternoon games b/c I was at Chase Field with crummy wifi, then hammered out the Ravens FH and the Vikings FG, but only normal plays to ensure I am not completely lost this year.  Which I'm happy to say I'm not.

Today's game will be telling on my end because I think this line is a bit of joke.  I know, there are many handicappers split on this and the Commanders were pretty good on the road last year (5-3) in the regular season but 5-5-1 ATS overall on the road.  But they also took a lot of teams by surprise and I do not think that will happen tonight.  Micah Parsons is going to be as motivated as ever and coming out on TNF is a great party for him to be a part of.  The Commanders beat up on the lowly Giants last week but this is an entirely different situation and a different quarterback.  Because of this, I believe the Washington defense didn't get tested the way people are perhaps sizing them up.

As for GB, it was a walloping on all levels and raises the questions for the Lions as to whether the loss of Ben Johnson as OC was the reason or maybe the Packers defense is actually pretty solid.  Well, we will find out tonight.  I do not think that McLaurin is in game shape and I was always wary of Deebo who seems to get underrated more than most other players given his production.  But the Washington offense is NOT better than that of the Lions and the Packers were good against the TE last year so I think Ertz is less of a factor.  I think the big square off is in between the trenches, as both RB's will have some work cut out for them.

The line of 3 seems pretty fair but they are saying if this game was played on a neutral field that the teams would be even.  I just can't get my hands around that because I don't think that's the case.  I'm not sure you see a blowout but, if one were to happen, it would be by the Packers.  No other way to play this game...

GREEN BAY (-3)

Keeping this as a regular play for now I'm good with winning and focusing on the really big ones this upcoming weekend.  Have to sort out my college football difficulties as well so probably need to spend some time there.  I will be going back to posting in soccer which has always been good to me.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

@Brooklyncapper

I like this one too!  The stakes is the big thing here, more so than the pitching prowess of late.  As we get later in the season, things will get back to being tighter (unless you're the Rockies) so I confidently believe many of these games will be lower scoring.  Only thing from my perspective to watch out for are pitchers who are being over extended b/c either they're young or haven't logged this many innings.  And I'm talking more so on competing teams (perfect example your guy Clay Holmes) 

 Nice job. Jays game should also go under if Javier limits damage 

Correct and correct…I have a whole thread dedicated to that 

yes things are getting tight and some teams at this point have transitioned to trying to vet younger guys. Though SF keeps going over this trend for one. 

Pick your spots I think 

@MrBator

I love the corroboration. I’ve been playing this angle for a few weeks now and while occasionally I will drop some coin it’s so few and far between. Not to mention they are also a great addition to a parlay.

Rockies are a mess guys. They don’t care and depending on their opponent they stand little chance. Their hurlers are trash and they have a couple good bats at most. Also have no real GM making decisions  

I’ll never say easy money but don’t say you weren’t told 

@River_fish

Huh? My win?!? First off I didn’t bet it nor write that afterwards guy. I’m just super familiar with pitchers made comment stating Kelly has that tendency.  Secondly why would I come into his thread after a game lost and selfishly gloat about a win?!  Regardless, I didn’t even play it. Just followed his threads and he had dropped 2 of 3 NRFI last night so was trying to help. How you read anything different means you don’t even comprehend comments 

Wow you really think all those games are going UNDER when we are in the year of the overs?  I hope you win them all but I'm just surprised you have neglected the overs today.  Not sure how the Orioles will hit Skenes 

wish I hadn't been correct on this.  good luck with the SD NRFI 

@Raiders22

Yes, it is correct.  No better place to look for those stats than MLB.com.  They have only lost 20 games by ONE run which, after subtracting from their overall 105 losses, leaves 85 losses by more than one run.  Another analytic which says the same thing is that 81% of their losses have been by more than one run.  

Just sharing this in a sport where the analytics should be the basis for your wagering (given bullpens, errors, and horrible umpiring), this is one I might ride the rest of the way.