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I don't agree with everything you say but I will admit that your point of view has merit. Their are many examples of "funny" outcomes this year as proof. Example; this past Monday night is the most recent. I live in michigan and have watched the lions for years. And I can't recall a game where they played so conservative game like this past Monday. I'm not saying it was fixed but with most of the money on the over, it just seemed that the game was played completely for the under to cover.
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HoldingXYZ | 40 |
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Adding
Under Oak/KC 45 |
Jay-jay | 20 |
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My plays today
Buff -3 Miami -2 Oak +4.5 |
Jay-jay | 20 |
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Canceling Dallas
Dirk maybe out |
Jay-jay | 9 |
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3-1 Thread
Det -6 Loser Utah + 9 2nd half. Winner Hou +3.5 2nd half. Winner Dallas -11 (buying 1/2 point) Bucks played bulls twice and spurs in between in past week and playing in dal on b2b. Expect mavs at home to roll. Utah +7 (buying 1/2 point) These are the type of games I prefer to bet. Home team getting a lot of pts opened @ 9 now down to 6.5. Not many giving them a chance but I think Utah hangs in and keeps it close or possible upset. GL |
Jay-jay | 9 |
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Just to set the record straight I don't recommend betting on games just because of public action. You must also use situational betting and have a feel for that game.....Philadelphia is a heavy public fav this week but I will not wager on that game because minn has injuries to AP and Gerhart.....I have 3 games I am targeting for tom and waiting for any late line/juice movement. I will post later today.
GLTA |
Jay-jay | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CoverMyLosses:
What about Philadelphia -5(Pinnacle) @ Minnesota, seems too easy as public will no doubt hammer the Eagles, is Minnesota the play here regardless if Peterson starts or not, looking more like he won't, thanks.
Heavy public betting is not an automatic fade. This is one of the games that I'm looking hard at. Minn has been a good home team of late. |
Jay-jay | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:
The kicker here is figuring out where the true action is. People throw around the terms "sharp" and "public" like they actually have some insight into the books percentage of action and percentage of money wagered. The irony in all of this, is most of the people here on covers ARE the public and don't even realize. They're trying to outsmart themselves, like a dog chasing it's own tail.
If you've gambled long enough you should have a good idea to which games have the true action. Of course we will never have true insight of what the books action is, but it wasn't hard to figure out that the books won big thurs. night. |
Jay-jay | 20 |
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2-1 thread
2nd half Houston +3.5 |
Jay-jay | 9 |
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1-1 thread
Bad beat with Det. 2nd half Utah +9 |
Jay-jay | 9 |
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1-0 on this thread.
Det -6.5 although I think the nets will go on a little run moving forward, I think this is a good spot for Det who have lost 3 straight and catching the Nets at a good time. I usually don't like to lay this many points on a mediocre team but the line begs for it. Det -6.5 GL |
Jay-jay | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by DarthHambly:
Hope you post a few NFL picks on here on Friday. Right now my favorite Sunday bet is Jax at home plus 2 against the lousy Bills. WTF. Buffalo losing 2 straight games and favored on the road against Jax who have won 4 of their last 5. All signs point towards taking Jax but for me its Buffalo or no play. GL |
Jay-jay | 20 |
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Sorry it was dropped to 91% before kickoff. Source: iodds
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Jay-jay | 8 |
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95% on the over tonight. That many gamblers in one spot can never be right. Be careful with K.C this week, a HUGE amount people on them already.
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Jay-jay | 8 |
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Sorry +1
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Jay-jay | 9 |
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My 1st play is Brooklyn -1
GL |
Jay-jay | 9 |
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And I do bet favs not only dogs. I look for the right situation, but lately it's been the dogs with the best value .
GL |
Jay-jay | 20 |
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To be clear I am not saying dogs cover more then favs or vice versa. What I'm saying is you have to target the " the right dogs" with the best value. It's about narrowing down to the most bet games.
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Jay-jay | 20 |
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1st time post. I apologize in advance for the long read but I have a different take on things that might help.
I have been reading a lot on how people think the best way to win is to fade the public or bet with the public. And people will look to see what side the public action is on. There is some truth to fading or betting with the public, but the kicker to it is to find the most heavily bet games on the board and focus in on those. It doesn't matter if 80% of the public like a certain game of only 10 ppl are betting it. You have to look at the most bet games and then from there your odds will go up (but not guaranteed) betting against the public because that's where the books will make their money. Of course you can't just make a bet based on those numbers, you always have to have a feel for the game, line movement and other capping methods. You will find 1-3 plays every Sunday that will have the feel of a fixed game. The title to this thread is "how about them dogs" and the reason is that's where the long term money is at. 80% of my wagers are on under dogs. The number one key to betting is quality not quantity. Try to focus on a couple games rather then the whole board. There is no true system that will work but I can tell you that I used just cap games thinking I knew it all and lost on consistent basis. Then I realized I had to try to find out which games were the games the books were making the majority of their money on. I will be posting my picks on here and in the nfl thread on games I find where I think there's an opportunity. GL |
Jay-jay | 9 |
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1st time post. I apologize in advance for the long read but I have a different take on things that might help.
I have been reading a lot on how people think the best way to win is to fade the public or bet with the public. And people will look to see what side the public action is on. There is some truth to fading or betting with the public, but the kicker to it is to find the most heavily bet games on the board and focus in on those. It doesn't matter if 80% of the public like a certain game of only 10 ppl are betting it. You have to look at the most bet games and then from there your odds will go up (but not guaranteed) betting against the public because that's where the books will make their money. Of course you can't just make a bet based on those numbers, you always have to have a feel for the game, line movement and other capping methods. You will find 1-3 plays every Sunday that will have the feel of a fixed game. The title to this thread is "how about them dogs" and the reason is that's where the long term money is at. 80% of my wagers are on under dogs. The number one key to betting is quality not quantity. Try to focus on a couple games rather then the whole board. There is no true system that will work but I can tell you that I used just cap games thinking I knew it all and lost on consistent basis. Then I realized I had to try to find out which games were the games the books were making the majority of their money on. I will be posting my picks on here and in the nfl thread on games I find where I think there's an opportunity. GL |
Jay-jay | 1 |
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