1st time post. I apologize in advance for the long read but I have a different take on things that might help.
I have been reading a lot on how people think the best way to win is to fade the public or bet with the public. And people will look to see what side the public action is on. There is some truth to fading or betting with the public, but the kicker to it is to find the most heavily bet games on the board and focus in on those. It doesn't matter if 80% of the public like a certain game of only 10 ppl are betting it. You have to look at the most bet games and then from there your odds will go up (but not guaranteed) betting against the public because that's where the books will make their money. Of course you can't just make a bet based on those numbers, you always have to have a feel for the game, line movement and other capping methods. You will find 1-3 plays every Sunday that will have the feel of a fixed game. The title to this thread is "how about them dogs" and the reason is that's where the long term money is at. 80% of my wagers are on under dogs. The number one key to betting is quality not quantity. Try to focus on a couple games rather then the whole board. There is no true system that will work but I can tell you that I used just cap games thinking I knew it all and lost on consistent basis. Then I realized I had to try to find out which games were the games the books were making the majority of their money on. I will be posting my picks on here and in the nfl thread on games I find where I think there's an opportunity.
1st time post. I apologize in advance for the long read but I have a different take on things that might help.
I have been reading a lot on how people think the best way to win is to fade the public or bet with the public. And people will look to see what side the public action is on. There is some truth to fading or betting with the public, but the kicker to it is to find the most heavily bet games on the board and focus in on those. It doesn't matter if 80% of the public like a certain game of only 10 ppl are betting it. You have to look at the most bet games and then from there your odds will go up (but not guaranteed) betting against the public because that's where the books will make their money. Of course you can't just make a bet based on those numbers, you always have to have a feel for the game, line movement and other capping methods. You will find 1-3 plays every Sunday that will have the feel of a fixed game. The title to this thread is "how about them dogs" and the reason is that's where the long term money is at. 80% of my wagers are on under dogs. The number one key to betting is quality not quantity. Try to focus on a couple games rather then the whole board. There is no true system that will work but I can tell you that I used just cap games thinking I knew it all and lost on consistent basis. Then I realized I had to try to find out which games were the games the books were making the majority of their money on. I will be posting my picks on here and in the nfl thread on games I find where I think there's an opportunity.
Det -6.5 although I think the nets will go on a little run moving forward, I think this is a good spot for Det who have lost 3 straight and catching the Nets at a good time. I usually don't like to lay this many points on a mediocre team but the line begs for it.
Det -6.5 although I think the nets will go on a little run moving forward, I think this is a good spot for Det who have lost 3 straight and catching the Nets at a good time. I usually don't like to lay this many points on a mediocre team but the line begs for it.
Dallas -11 (buying 1/2 point) Bucks played bulls twice and spurs in between in past week and playing in dal on b2b. Expect mavs at home to roll.
Utah +7 (buying 1/2 point) These are the type of games I prefer to bet. Home team getting a lot of pts opened @ 9 now down to 6.5. Not many giving them a chance but I think Utah hangs in and keeps it close or possible upset.
Dallas -11 (buying 1/2 point) Bucks played bulls twice and spurs in between in past week and playing in dal on b2b. Expect mavs at home to roll.
Utah +7 (buying 1/2 point) These are the type of games I prefer to bet. Home team getting a lot of pts opened @ 9 now down to 6.5. Not many giving them a chance but I think Utah hangs in and keeps it close or possible upset.
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