HipB23

cinema

Just needed a simple layup but he fucks it up again. Dude mushed ATS two games in a row. 

Games decided by 1, 16, 9, and 7.  Indy had the lead in Game 4 but in the 4th they missed 6 3's, Mathurin misses 3 of 4 from the free throw line, and Indy has a few turnovers.  Bad beat for those of us who had Indy +6.5 or +6.  BUT...we get a line of 9.5 or 10 for game 5?  What has OKC done to show they are the dominant team in this series?  Sure, they had 1 win of 16(Caruso/Wiggins scored 38 off the bench. 9 3's!)...but other than that, it's been a pretty even series.  Yes, I know OKC is dominant at home and they are the best team in the NBA this year, but INDY is putting up a great fight.  I feel like you have to take the points here.  INDY wasn't supposed to have a chance in game 1 and look how that turned out. OKC stars are getting their points and the Yes Sirs are still keeping it close. Maybe we get a sub-par game from J Dub tonight and the OKC bench doesn't hit a ton of 3's? I'll bite on the points in this game with Indy.  

Indy + 9.5 or 10 depending on when you hit it. 

"NBA wants to extend series(I guess they didn't care about Minny), no way NY loses at home, NY will give everything they got to get a win!"  Everybody also said there was no way the Knicks would lose games 1 & 2 at home either. 

Just because there is a narrative, doesn't mean it's going to happen. I'm too old to know that what everyone thinks should happen, often doesn't.  I think NY MAY be able to pull off the win at home, but I'm not betting on that.  INDY could easily come out and win this game(there is a reason they are up 3-1). I'm going to stick to some player props as I think there is some value in Knicks players putting in max effort.  

Parlay some of these...

TJ McConnell 10+ P/R/A - easily hits this almost every game except game 4(got to 9)

Siakam - 25+ P/R/A - been having a big series and OG seems to have trouble with his old teammate

Mitch Rob over 11.5 P/R - been starting and KAT may be slightly limited. Hometown playoff fave for many. 

Josh Hart 20+ P/R/A - easily hit this 3 or 4 games this series

I like OG and Mikal to both get close to 15 or more. Brunson should go all out and get over 30.  Maybe a less stacked stat sheet for Haliburton. Stay away from KAT with possible injury. 

Oh shit. Minny looking like the football team from varsity blues after the strip club night. This game is over. Minny cant even dribble the ball!

Julius Randle this series games 1-4 = 28 points, 6 points, 24 points, 5 points

Jalen Williams games 1-4 = 19 points, 26 points, 13 points, 34 points(6 of 9 from 3!!) - JDub avg < 2 3's a game and he hit a high of 5 during the reg season just once. 

So if this zig-zag were to continue...we get a big game from Randle and a not so great game from J Dub?

I doubt OKC takes it easy but you have to assume Randle/ANT play better tonight.  If you are a fool who thinks sports are rigged, then Minny should get the calls to go their way, right? Minny played a great game 4 even though Ant/Randle only combined for 21/11/9. So assuming a better game from those 2, a little regression from the Minny bench(64 points), but also some regression from OKC big 3 who combined for 95 points(10 of 20 from 3!), we hopefully get a competitive game tonight.  

Randle OVER Pts/Rebs - 22.5 - LARGE

Wolves +8.5 - small play.  Hoping for close game. 

Indy played a great game going into the 4th quarter in game 3.  Up by 10 and held KAT to 4 points.  Then KAT went crazy scoring 20 points and Indy had it's worst scoring quarter of the series only getting to 20(at home!). INDY went something like 5/19 in the 4th, missed multiple driving layups/short jumpers, and fouled NY a bunch resulting in 15 of 16 made free throws...just in the 4th!!!!  From 3, Indy was 5/25 while NY was 11 of 32(Indy avgs 13 made 3's a game - reg season and playoffs).  If anything, NY won because they got lucky that INDY fell apart in the 4th(credit to KAT for going off though).  Sure, the Knicks put up a good fight these playoffs, but in all 3 series they have played in, they have won games because their opponents have screwed up/played poorly, not necessarily because they played better.  

Are the Pacers only going to get 5 3's all game(shooting 20%)?  I doubt that.  The wildcard tonight is Nesmith...he's very aggressive on defense but a Sheppard/McConnell combo replacing him should be enough to offset his contributions.  I think Indy takes this game getting the 1st home win of the series and it goes back to NY for a win or lose game 5 for NY. Indy needs to come out with more urgency tonight and not let game 4 get away from them like game 3.  

INDY ML

McConnell 10+ points(might get more playing time if Nesmith is limited, but has hit 10+ in 4 of last 5)

The Knicks have been in 8 playoff games this year with final scores within 6 points of each other. 5-3 record in those games.

Vs. Det - Game 2 - 6 point loss, Game 3 - won by 2, Game 4 - won by 1, Game 5 - lost by 3, Game 6 - won by 3(game 1 - 11 point win)

Vs. Bos - Game 1 - 3 point win, Game 2 - won by 1(Games 3,5,6 - 2 blowout losses and 1 blowout win)

Vs. Indy - Game 1 - lost by 3

Now we get a line around -6???  

I feel like  you have to play Indy here.  Indy plays fast, up-tempo, and uses it's bench more than NY.  NY looked a little tired at the end of the game and couldn't reach the rim on it's final 2 shots from Brunson/Towns(while also missing critical free throws at the end of regulation in the 4th).

Game 1 - NY outscored Indy by 2 in the 1st 1/4, by 5 in the 2nd, Indy outscored NY by 4 in the 3rd, 3 in the 4th, and 3 in OT. 

NY had 7 MORE rebounds, 12 MORE points in the paint, shot 28 of 40 from FT line(vs 21 of 28 from INDY), had 4 LESS 3's made, the same FG% as INDY, and 107 points from their starters...and LOST!!!  They could improve on the FT shooting...but the big factor of game 1 was the turnovers. NY had twice as many(15 vs 7) as INDY and conceded 27 points off of turnovers(vs 4 for INDY). 

It's the NBA and anything could happen, but I think you see another close game tonight.  Give me the points and let's have some fun tonight. 

INDY +6

Pacers are highest scoring team in the playoffs at 119.5/game(11 games)

Regular season they were at 117/game. 

they scored 98 and 128 @Madison Sq Garden in the regular season.  

In the 98 point game...3 for 30 from 3 - starters were 0-17.  

I'm seeing Indy team total on Fanduel at 109.5 right now @ -110

If Indy pushes again and hits some 3's, or if it goes to OT again, I would assume this gets over the 110 mark. Good luck though. 

What. A. Game.

already hit the 1+ game to go to OT in game 1!  Now just need 1 more for the 2+!

If Pacers squeak out a game 2 win, those Pacers 4-2 and 4-3 plays are going to be trash. 

Much more fun to see other teams blow large leads!

Watching these Knicks, they aren't playing like potential NBA champs.  

In the regular season, their record against EAST playoff teams was 12-13. 0-8 vs C's and Cavs combined, 2-1 vs Indy. 

In the Det series, they only outscored the Pistons by 8 POINTS in the 6 game series.  Game 4 was decided because of a no call foul at the buzzer that could've ended the game in a loss for NY. Knicks had wins of 11, 2, 1, & 3.  Losses by 6 and 3. Det also did a terrible job of defending Brunson allowing him to avg. 32 points in the series. Instead of doubling him, they allowed him to play bully ball and just score at will.  

In the Boston series, they were down by 14+ in 5 of 6 games...-20 game 1, -20 game 2, -31 game 3, -14 game 4, -28 game 5. They were outscored by the C's by 35 points before game 6...finishing the 6 games series with a +3!!!!!  They dominated game 6 and played well in game 4...not so much in games 1,2,3,5.  C's played good D on Brunson and he avg 26/game. 

The Knicks played 2 tough series which equaled 12 games. 

BUT, props to the Knicks for getting to the ECF.  All that matters is they made it. 

Indy also went 12-13 in regular season play against East playoff teams. INDY played 2 series with banged up teams in the Cavs and Bucks. They played 10 games total so far and had a +17 vs Cavs and +38 vs Bucks. Vs the Cavs, the Pacers had a different points leader in every game. Impressive team play. 

NY has had it tougher than Indy so far through 2 rounds, and Indy has been more dominant(granted vs injured teams). Indy seems to play better team ball & is coming in healthy and rested.  Can't imagine this series ends in less than 6 games.  With how these Knicks games have been going, does their luck run out this series or do they keep up the end of game heroics? I took INDY +2.5 games parlayed with Minny +2.5 for both series.  Trying to figure out how to make an INDY series play that I like.  

Fanduel has 1+ games to go to overtime at +200.  I'll bite.  I'll sprinkle 2+ games to OT also at +1500

Going to make small plays on Pacers exact 4-2 and 4-3.  Hopefully we get a fun series with no major injuries.  

I placed this on Fanduel which gives alt series game lines and they allow the parlay.

And don't forget the experience of both of these teams.  Pacers lost the ECF last year 4-0 and are looking to show they belong while Minny lost 4-1 but are much improved.  Taking the 2 teams that were here last year coming into these games healthy and rested.  What could go wrong!?

Still sad about this C's team ending the way it did...injured and losing badly to NY(especially in games 1 & 2!).  But they are out and it's time to move on.  These 2 conference finals matchups look like a lot of fun.  Really happy that we are getting the 7th DIFFERENT finals champion in 7 years.  NBA hit a lull when it was Steph or Lebron every year in the 20teens, including 4 consecutive Finals matchups!! Awesome to see some young guys making splashes and some really awesome talent will be displayed over these last 2 rounds of the playoffs.  Let's all hope there are no major injuries.  I'm hoping we see a competitive series in both instances. 6 or 7 games in each series shouldn't be too much to ask for...I think we can get at least 2 wins from the Wolves against a battle tested OKC and Indy looks to be a dangerous underdog in the East.  Give me +2.5 this round for them both parlayed at +100. 

Wolves +2.5 games/Pacers +2.5 games - +100

I'm having a hard time finding an angle on this game that tips me one way or the other. I can see scenarios where either team gets the win tonight. Of course I want Boston to win, but the Knicks are due for a good game. One thing is for sure, the C's are going to be bombing up 3's.  If they are falling, they have a chance.

In my opinion, the only complete game the Knicks played was game 4.  Four starters had 20+points and 4 of 5 starters had a +/- of +4 or better(Kat had -1). It was the only game the C's didn't have a 20+ point lead during the game. Games 1 & 2 were lost BY Boston because of bad coaching and shot selection. Boston's 2 wins in games 3 & 5 were dominant. Boston has outscored NY by 35 points this series. One major thing that sticks out to me this series that is important is the play of OG and Bridges. Yes, Bridges made 2 great defensive plays to end games 1 & 2, but I would argue that Boston had 2 terrible play calls and shouldn't have even been in those positions after blowing huge leads. OG/Bridges are the key for the Knicks. If they ball out tonight and contribute offensively, this could be the end for Boston. They avg 35+ PPG combined during the regular season. They are down to 25 in this series(game 4 was only game for them BOTH to hit double digits). 

Check out these +/- stats...

OG - game 1 -1, game 2 -11, game 3 -25, game 4 +4, game 5 -15 

Bridges - game 1 +3, game 2 -6, game 3 -19, game 4 +14, game 5 -25

Unfortunate that Porzingis is in poor health. If he can get his shit together for a game, he could be a game changer.  Who knows what will happen with him. I'm sure Brunson will get over 20, but I'm hoping White/Holiday can hold him to under 30 as he's eclipsed that total only once this series. Strategy has to be stop Brunson and make 1 of the other guys beat you(not sure why Det couldn't figure this out). 

The Plays...

Celtics team total over 105 - you know they'll be shooting the 3's...will they stay hot? 4 out of 5 games went over this total this series

M. Robinson Over 12.5 P/R - has been very involved in every game having eclipsed 10+ points/rebounds every game. Hack-a-Mitch may be in play so this should hit again.

Kornet Over 11.5 P/R - Hopefully Mazulla stays with the hot big man.  He was a game changer in game 5...let him cook. 

Kornet 2+ blocks +110 - can he get aggressive on D again like game 5?

Brunson under 30.5 - Det did a terrible job defending him but the C's have done well with White/Holiday. Foul trouble again for Brunson?

OG 10+ points/Bridges 10+ points/NY ML parlay +112(hoping NY loses to get a game 7 but like I said, NY & these 2 guys are due, I'll sprinkle a little on this in case my C's season ends tonight)

Celtics play great on the road, C's have outplayed the Knicks in every game except game 4, C's have had a 20 point lead in 4 of the 5 games, White/Horford/Holiday/Brown have tons of playoff experience, C's have a great defense.  I assume the Knicks win game 6 but you never know!  All the pressure is on NY to win game 6...imagine them having to head back to Boston for a game 7 after blowing a 3-1 lead and Tatum going down?  Would be an amazing story to watch unfold.  

Tatum w/devastating inj - Porzingis has AIDS

Cs season has been written off as over

Game 5 Knicks had...

Mitch Robinson 6/6 from the line/8 points/13 rebs

Hart 5 3's/24 points - McBride 3 3's/11 points

Knicks 32/40 free throws vs 17/26 from Cs

Seeing stats like that you wouldn't think it was a blowout, but it was!

Cs move the ball better on offense when tatum is out. Cs playing care free. They are dangerous...pull off a win Fri night and it's possible they pull off the upset.