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Quote Originally Posted by cyrusdarius: Thanks Checkmate! That was exactly the kind of thoughtful analysis I was hoping for. I'm still going with BAL, but with a bit less enthusiasm. It's now at +2.5 at most online books, so it makes it hard not to. Here's my take/reply, as I think you have captured why I think the line is what it is. 1) You can't make the 'it's only one game' argument. These are veteran squads, and PHI didn't have a big personnel turnover to justify the crapfest in CLE. 2) I agree about the Ravens and home field and I too have been burned by BAL on the road (Seattle last year?). I'm not a Joe Flacco guy at all. I don't like his attitude. But, that offense is waaaay more aggressive and potent than last year and I don't think you can chalk that up to home field. BAL has a new approach to offense this season. 3) BAL gave up 129 to CIN, so there is something to Shady going off. And we still don't know about Reed. But, Maclin and Jackson are both injured and their status is also uncertain. If this is left to Vick and Shady without healthy WRs, fuggit about it. BAL will score on PHI and force several turnovers along the way. 4) Your Vegas argument is the most persuasive. There really is something so bloody effing obvious about it that it keeps moving AGAINST BAL, that is, the public sees the line as an obvious ruse and is going PHI. That makes me worry, having been stung like this before. At the end of the day, I am convinced that the public is massively overrating Vick and that BAL is the second best team in the AFC. Look at Vick's mediocrity over the last year and then compare how Flacco gets better and better during the same period. These are trajectories headed in opposite directions and these squads aren't that much different than last year. I don't care where they play, BAL is gonna win. Also to the EAGLES point, people are acting like the Browns are a division two college team. They aren't great but I believe will upset some teams this year. And I'm not sure if this is TRUE but I heard The Brown coaching staff all came from Andy Rieds Eagles at one point. So everything the Eagles did the Brown had planed for. If true that def makes sense. The Browns did not play amazing but were well coached. Last note, last time I check the Eagles did come down and score the game winning drive despite how bad they played. and in the NFL winning on the road is never easy......I dont care who your playing
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Covers | 48 |
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Clippers first long stretch of playing tough Western Conference teams. All solid teams coming off 6 games in 9 days. and 4 games in 5 days. Why would you ever take a team that has played that many games in such a sort time. Not to mention they play the Wiz on Saturday. Meaning they had a red eye tonight to DC for a saturday game. That's why they were dead tonight, and they didn't help your over!!!
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gn2xturbo | 7 |
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Denver by at least 10 or more...
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HelpingUpoorFok | 1 |
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