CMJohnson i don't get that play against the public. On sunday, public was all over Dallas - they covered. Public was all over Celtics - they covered.
Public is all over Orlando - i'm with them.
Magic by 7-10.
The system that I've been using is if the publics is anywhere between 71-82% on a team (average of a couple different sites) then I generally fade them. Above 82% or below 71% and I more than likely take the favorite. The Celtics last night were at about 67-69% on average for the sites I use. Dallas I'm not sure about, but I have found that more often than not if you take an underdog within this range they will hit...especially if there is no line movement like tonight.
Look at it this way...if 75% of the money is on Orlando shouldn't the line move up to about -6 or so? Vegas wants the money on every game to be as close to even as possible so that if they lose it's not that much. That is exactly the case in this game, as most of the money has been on the Magic, as you can clearly see in this thread, but the spread hasn't moved....this means that Vegas is very happy with the line where it is and most of the action on Orlando.
Obviously I'm not saying it works every time, but I have found that it does work somewhere in between the 60% to 70% range, which is pretty damn good.
New Jersey +4.5 is the play