Wildcard Round

Playoffs 0-0

I think these all have the potential to be good, close games.

This is usually the most exciting round of playoffs to me.

So, with that being said, I will pick a side and total in all of the games.

I played LAR -10 at open and the U46.5.  Then took CAR +11 and +10.5.  So, I am averaged in at LAR -10, almost even.  Then, if it lands on 10 I would make a slight profit even.

But with the potential weather, I am not as confident with the side.

I still like the Under at 45.  

I can see LAR grabbing a big lead and throttling down.  The line is basically the same as the first game.  So, as long as LAR plays to their potential, they should be fine.  The biggest issue is that the LAR defense has not been very good the last 6 games.  Young has looked very good from a clean pocket.  So, I am expecting McVay to have worked on that part of the scheme to avoid this being the problem it could be.

I think a consideration could be CAR TT U17.5 at a good number.

1U LAR -10 -107 

2U LAR U45 -103

I can see the GB/CH game playing out as a slow start with some of the injured players that are coming back trying to get into a rhythm.  As long as Love is safe with the ball, he should be able to handle the CH defense fine. 

I think the key will be which team establishes the run and which team can stop the run.  I think this is another game where teams will try to set the pass up by running.  I think CH will try to take some pressure off of Williams by doing this and GB will try to use it to ease Love back into the flow after this long a time off.  

The weather may not be as big a factor with the rain as it looked earlier.  But the wind may be a problem.  So, this is another game where I feel more confident on it being a low-scoring game.

I liked GB early at +1, but did not play it because I was not sure who all was playing.  I still see value in anything under -2.

I played the U 46.5 at open.  But I still like it at 44.5

1U GB -1.5 

2U GB U44.5 -105

I played the JAX +1.5, +1 at open.  I still like them at -1.  This is a total I could see going over and actually being the most exciting game of the weekend.  Even though JAX defense has been excellent the last few games, I can see BUF easily putting up points.  JAX has two very good WRs, so I can see them getting points as well.  I think this comes down to the QBs, and I expect both to have a very good game.

I think the knock on Allen on the road in the playoffs cannot be overlooked here either.

I think JAX comes out focused and plays well to start.  BUF will always have the ability to play a great 2H.

I think a consideration could be JAX 1H -.5.

1U JAX -1 -105

3U JAX O51.5 -107

I played PHL at -3.5/-4/-4.5.  I like them to win and cover that.  I just cannot play them at 6 with as much confidence.  I will post -6 +100 small just because that is the best number available now.

This is also another under I played at open at 46.5, and I still like it very much at 44.5.  I think PHL is just playing elite defense in the latter part of the year.  This is the type of game that their defense really steps up.  I could see this being the type of game where they really get Barkley going early, and Hurts only has to throw 10-15 passes.  

I am not so sure how well Trent Williams will do.  I do not think he even took reps this week.  I think he was just jogging around.  So, I am not so sure how effective a one-legged Williams will be.

.5U PHL -6 +100

3U PHL U44.5 -104

This is a game I did not play early at all.  This was because I really wanted to see what the weather was going to be.  I think it could have been a bigger factor for NE if it had been bad.  I think at this point, the key is well known for LAC.  It is their O-Line.  I think if they can do anywhere better than they have been, they have a chance to keep this with a FG.

The knock is on Herbert here in the playoffs.  The issue is how Maye will handle the playoffs after a soft schedule.  You have to play who is on the schedule.  But at this point, Zappe has more wins against teams that have a winning record than Maye does.  It is always dicey fading an MVP candidate.

I also think we find out right away if Vrabel has plans to exploit the LAC O-Line.  If he does, then this play is torched.  This is another game I think is  slower and sets up as an under.

2U LAC +3.5 -104

2U LAC U46.5 -108

I took PIT -3.5 and the U39.5 as soon as I could.  But I still like the current numbers a lot.  I think PIT wins the game outright.

I realize it is a playoff game and not a regular-season on Monday night.  But Tomlin and the Steelers do so well in these games.  I think the only one they lost was back during Covid when there were no fans in the stands.  It is just a different environment on Monday night with fans and ‘Renegade’ playing.

I think everyone is aware of how good the HOU defense is at this point.  Especially, the D-line and their Pass Rush.  But Rodgers has been getting rid of the ball quicker than anyone in the league.  He has set out not to get hit by anyone and not just HOU.  

I think Ryans always has his team team ready to play.  I think the point can be made that he has done more this year, with less, than any other coach.  I think this also sets up to be a real dogfight that favors the under.

2.5U PIT +3 -109

.5U   PIT +140

2U    PIT U38.5 -110

I will add that if anyone likes PIT to win, they can take them to win the Conference at a good number of 17/1 or so.  Or even the Super Bowl at a very good number of 50/1 or so.

This would set up an excellent hedge going forward.

Good luck 22

@Raiders22

GL  on your plays @Raiders22 

Steelers? No way. I can't even imagine them beating Hou let alone the conference. But it's the nfl and anything can happen

Good luck in the playoffs Raiders