Wild Card Week Odds and Ends (...and some plays as the week goes on)

Question

I think the 3 most exciting games in the Wild Card round are the following:

Bills @ Jaguars
Chargers @ Patriots
49ers @ Eagles

Honorable mention: Packers @ Bears due to it being a divisional matchup.

Some thoughts on the 49ers/Eagles game. Alan Eck will be the head referee for that game, which is sounding some alarms due to him growing up in Pennsylvania and being an Eagles fan.

Stats: The Eagles have an 8-1 record (including an NFC title game) whenever Alan Eck refs the game, while the 49ers are 3-6 whenever Eck is reffing their game.

I don't know if the 49ers can muster much on offense outside of McCaffrey. At some point he's going to wear down mid-game, if he hasn't already. They're also deep into their reserves on defense. Meanwhile, the Eagles have "been there and done that" before and I fully expect them to turn on their playoff form. No plays on the game, but lean Eagles.

Chargers/Patriots. I'm going to toss the SOS analysis out the door because I agree -- you play who you play. Who's to say the Patriots wouldn't have the same record against a tougher schedule? As a Chargers fan, it's difficult to set bias aside. But I also know this team inside-and-out. I had them beating the Texans two weeks ago, and they could have done it without a chip shot miss from the most accurate kicker in the NFL (and a missed PAT). But them's the breaks and I'm not crying over that.

New England leans heavily on 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs), using it at the eighth-highest rate in the league and ranking fourth in EPA per pass from those looks. But the Chargers counter with the league’s second-best pass defense versus two-TE formations, thanks in large part to Derwin James.

I'll have more about this matchup later on.

Bills/Jaguars. The Jaguars defense is built to take away explosive plays and force long drives, which I think will spell trouble for the Bills. Allen thrives on improvisation. With his foot injury, I think you'll see fewer designed QB runs. To what extent will it hamper his off script playmaking we shall see.

iConsciousness · Answer

I think the 3 most exciting games in the Wild Card round are the following:

Bills @ Jaguars
Chargers @ Patriots
49ers @ Eagles

Honorable mention: Packers @ Bears due to it being a divisional matchup.

Some thoughts on the 49ers/Eagles game. Alan Eck will be the head referee for that game, which is sounding some alarms due to him growing up in Pennsylvania and being an Eagles fan.

Stats: The Eagles have an 8-1 record (including an NFC title game) whenever Alan Eck refs the game, while the 49ers are 3-6 whenever Eck is reffing their game.

I don't know if the 49ers can muster much on offense outside of McCaffrey. At some point he's going to wear down mid-game, if he hasn't already. They're also deep into their reserves on defense. Meanwhile, the Eagles have "been there and done that" before and I fully expect them to turn on their playoff form. No plays on the game, but lean Eagles.

Chargers/Patriots. I'm going to toss the SOS analysis out the door because I agree -- you play who you play. Who's to say the Patriots wouldn't have the same record against a tougher schedule? As a Chargers fan, it's difficult to set bias aside. But I also know this team inside-and-out. I had them beating the Texans two weeks ago, and they could have done it without a chip shot miss from the most accurate kicker in the NFL (and a missed PAT). But them's the breaks and I'm not crying over that.

New England leans heavily on 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs), using it at the eighth-highest rate in the league and ranking fourth in EPA per pass from those looks. But the Chargers counter with the league’s second-best pass defense versus two-TE formations, thanks in large part to Derwin James.

I'll have more about this matchup later on.

Bills/Jaguars. The Jaguars defense is built to take away explosive plays and force long drives, which I think will spell trouble for the Bills. Allen thrives on improvisation. With his foot injury, I think you'll see fewer designed QB runs. To what extent will it hamper his off script playmaking we shall see.