Man what a debacle with the Rams yesterday. Truly mystifying how a team can start so good and then turn so bad, least penalized team suddenly getting penalties every drive offense and defense. And then of course win the game and not cover.
Anyway, dusting myself off and playing the Jags ML here despite respecting the playoff experience of Josh Allen, who I know won't go down without a fight, but I have to cap it based on more than just that.
The Jags first of all have the NFLs best run defense which is a huge plus considering the Bills have the best rush offense. When you combine that with the fact they also lead the league in interceptions, it's hopefully a good formula. Stuff the run, force them into passing situations and pick them off. If you look at the list of league leaders in INTs there are way more Jax guys than Buffalo guys with multiple picks including one who has the 2nd most. And if you look at passes defensed, same story, way more guys and more guys higher up the list. They don't just get picks they bat passes down.
While Josh Allen has cleaned things up he has always had that tendency to throw picks down around the red zone and end zone.
Jags could have a special teams advantage as well with their kicker being a long range sniper while the Bills kicker has been hurt and the backup a few weeks ago missed a PAT. Prater is gonna play but it's something worth noting.
Buffalo has allowed the 3rd most yards per carry vs the run. Id much rather have the team at home in basically a pick with the top rush defense. If Josh Allen heroics win this game then so be it, it's probable that it would have to be that way for them to win considering the Jags are built to stop what Buffalo does best.
The road win vs the Broncos proved to me this team is for real. The Jags will probably have to stave off a comeback attempt like the Bills did to the Ravens and Pats this year. I expect it to be tight and they will never be out of it. While the Jags rank 21st overall in 4th quarter points allowed, in the last 3 games they've allowed only 1 pt in the 4th per game basically a FG over 3 games. Vs worse offenses but still. That will be key as the Bills rank 2nd only to Chicago in 4th quarter points scored.
When it's tough to run on a defense you can't wear them down in the 4th and when you get a lot of picks if the other team is forcing throws you can seal the game that way. It's time TL gets a playoff win other than that crazy comeback vs the Chargers. He has more pass yards, passing touchdowns and higher yards per completion than Allen this year with only 2 more picks while Allen has 2 more fumbles.
It will probably come down to who avoids those critical mistakes as usual but the Jags ball hawking secondary gives them the advantage there IMO.
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