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Trends & Things NFL preseason 2007 week 2-3

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ...
 
 
You know the drill...
make your own decisions
 
 
  1. Home teams as favorites against better prior year teams are just 51-77 (40%)
  2. Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
  3. ( Week 3)  in 'same versus same' contests, the home side has gone 33-22 (60%)
  • Good -- teams with a 10 or more wins in the prior regular season
  • Average -- teams with 7 to 9 wins
  • Poor -- teams with less than 7 wins
  1. In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup yields a 104-72 record (59%) ****not applicable this week****
  2. Away teams  with 2 or more wins against a home team with exactly 1 win are 39-15 (73%)
  3. Home underdogs with 0 wins coming into a game are 38-19 (67%)
  4. Home underdogs with 2+ wins coming into a game are 12-3 (80%)
  5. Away underdogs with 2+ wins coming into a game are 64-35 (65%)
  6. Away favorites with 0 wins coming into a game are 14-29 (33%)
  7. ( Week 3 ) -- away favorites with 1 or 2 wins are 10-2 ( 83 % ) against home teams with 1 win

Data from two minute warning...

 
 
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Posted: #2
GL
 
MVP
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Posted: #3
Always good to see your info Roberto. I love trends etc, but sometimes I have to go against some of them...aka Jags tonight.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

Always good to see your info Roberto. I love trends etc, but sometimes I have to go against some of them...aka Jags tonight.

Good call...i went to bed at halftime thinkin i had a win wrapped up. Woke up this morning mad. haha

Stickin with these trends I'm favoring Titans and Rams.

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

Always good to see your info Roberto. I love trends etc, but sometimes I have to go against some of them...aka Jags tonight.

I don't want to start a shitfest in Roberto's thread but come on. Jac got lucky last night on the pick 6. A win is a win and congrats but GB was covering the entire 1st half and most of the 2nd half until that bonehead throw. GL tonight Roberto.

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by TheRealDeal7:

I don't want to start a shitfest in Roberto's thread but come on. Jac got lucky last night on the pick 6. A win is a win and congrats but GB was covering the entire 1st half and most of the 2nd half until that bonehead throw. GL tonight Roberto.

 

Real deal, sure that pick was lucky at the end, but remember how GB got the ball. A fumble where JAX probably would have been forced to kick a pretty makeable FG...tit  for tat...but yes, lucky none the less.

 
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Posted: #7
Lots of games tomorrow.
 
Miami looks like a play being the home underdog with 2+ wins.
 
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Posted: #8
Miami does qualify for multiple trend qualifier ( with 3 ) under the two minute warning format ...
 
Atlanta would  be the  last such qualifier ...
 
*****************************************************************
 
Given the present spreads I'll make Atlanta   the
 Underdog Trend pick of the Week
 
Game :  Cincinnati @ Atlanta
current spread : Atlanta + 3
 
Underdog trend pick of the week tracker :
1-0 preseason
 
Miami qualifies for the following  >>>>
 
****  going into TY preseason ****
  1. Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
  2. In week three, in 'same versus same' contests, the home side has gone 33-22 (60%)
  3. Home underdogs with 2+ wins coming into a game are 12-3 (80%)

******************************************************************

Atlanta qualifies the following  >>>>   

****going into TY preseason ****    

   

  1. Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
  2. In week three, in 'same versus same' contests, the home side has gone 33-22 (60%)
  3. Away favorites with 0 wins coming into a game are 14-29(33%)

   **********************************************************************      

and Dallas qualifies for for 2 trends >>>>

***going into TY preseason***

  1. Away Teams with 2 or more wins against a home team with exactly 1 win are 39-15 for ( 73% )
  2. (Week 3) --Away favorites with 1 or 2 wins are 10-2 ( 80 % ) against home teams with 1 win

***********************************************************

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #9

some more info >>>>

Saturday, August 25th

Detroit at Indianapolis, 7:00 EST
Detroit: 2-7 ATS in August
Indianapolis: 19-9 Over off a home game

Tampa Bay at Miami, 7:30 EST
Tampa Bay: 8-2 Under off a loss by 10+ points
Miami: 5-1 ATS as a home underdog

Dallas at Houston, 8:00 EST
Dallas: 6-1 ATS as a favorite
Houston: 2-7 ATS in the last two weeks

Baltimore at Washington, 8:00 EST
Baltimore: 8-1 Under off a non-conference game
Washington: 1-5 ATS off a loss

NY Jets at NY Giants, 8:00 EST
NY Jets: 11-3 ATS vs. NY Giants
NY Giants: 14-30 ATS off a non-conference game

San Francisco at Chicago, 8:00 EST
San Francisco: 6-1 ATS off a non-conference game
Chicago: 8-2 Under off a combined score of 50+ points

Cleveland at Denver, 9:00 EST
Cleveland: 6-1 Under vs. conference opponents
Denver: 9-1 ATS at home off a loss

Minnesota at Seattle, 9:00 EST
Minnesota: 10-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Seattle: 5-1 Over off a combined score of 50+ points

San Diego at Arizona, 10:00 EST
San Diego: 1-5 ATS off a road win by 10+ points
Arizona: 6-2 Under as a home underdog

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Sunday, August 26th

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 8:00 EST NBC
Philadelphia: 1-7 ATS off a home win by 10+ points
Pittsburgh: 7-0 Under in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Monday, August 27th

Cincinnati at Atlanta, 8:00 EST ESPN
Cincinnati: 5-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Atlanta: 19-7 ATS off a road game

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

 
Captain
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Posted: #10

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Saturday, August 25th, 8:05 P.M. EST EST
 
Niners catch the Bears in an ideal spot, off a Super Bowl loss revenge win over the Colts last week. In addition,
Chicago is just 1-9 SU & ATS at home in Game Three of the preseason and 1-7 ATS the last eight times they have been installed as favorites of 6 or more points in exhibition games.
Look for an improved San Francisco squad to take advantage of those numbers here tonight.
Good Luck - Marc Lawrence

Play on: Chicago

 

LOL....

He actually made an argument against Chicago ....and on behalf of the 49ers...and ended up with the wrong selection !

His argument is valid however ...

 

******  From Vegas Experts Web site ....
daily free picks .....
 
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Posted: #11
Roberto,
 
I put more weight on trends than anthing else.  It's the way I like to cap.  
 
Thanks for all the valuable info.
 
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Posted: #12
Good info Roberto...........
 
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Posted: #13
     good stuff rob 
 
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Posted: #14
Let's get them today RF...
 
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Posted: #15
hahaha @ the article supporting the Niners but the pick is Chicago.
 
Good stuff Rob...appreciate the info.
 
Miami and Dallas are nice plays. But I'm also liking the Vikings. Minny is 7.5 dogs
 
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Posted: #16
Trends crack 'em today Roberto, and esp. the MNF game.
 
Lawrence's daily free pick .....is really funny, but it's free!.
 
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Posted: #17
Giants Jets 6-0 L6 Under in preseason games...
 
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Posted: #18
Great info Roberto, appreciate the effort you put in to help evryone out. Good luck to ya Bro!
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

Giants Jets 6-0 L6 Under in preseason games...
 
Curious to the totals of those games.
 
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Posted: #20
Trends featured this week did not hold up as  well...as last week
Though we all know none are endorsements as plays ...
 
Miami , Dallas were losers ...
Atlanta was a winner
a trend brought up on behalf of SF was a winner
 
Now, the Underdog trend pick of the week on Atlanta was a winner
Underdog trend of the week tracker >>>  2-0
 
We'll see what we can dig up trend wise for the final week of preseason...
 
New thread >>  Trends & Things NFL preseason 2007  week 4
coming up ...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #21
Oh ...and good call on the  Giants-Jets UNDER trend  
0-7 to the unders now
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