I am going with the team who has the best chance to run the ball tonight, and it certainly isnt the Steelers. Decided disadvantage for the Steelers tonight in the rushing attack - going up against the #2 defense in the NFL against the run, and the Steelers cant run the ball on anybody. So if you are betting the Steelers tonight - it must be a belief in Pickett and the passing attack.
Ugly 1 score game, with 3 being a pretty big number to lay here. The best chance of something clicking tonight is the Titans running game - so thats where my money is going.
The Steelers continue the regression to their statistical mean.
Titans 20 - 16
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
I am going with the team who has the best chance to run the ball tonight, and it certainly isnt the Steelers. Decided disadvantage for the Steelers tonight in the rushing attack - going up against the #2 defense in the NFL against the run, and the Steelers cant run the ball on anybody. So if you are betting the Steelers tonight - it must be a belief in Pickett and the passing attack.
Ugly 1 score game, with 3 being a pretty big number to lay here. The best chance of something clicking tonight is the Titans running game - so thats where my money is going.
The Steelers continue the regression to their statistical mean.
VZ, Sorry I short changed you in the other thread. I had you somewhere between +16-18 units, but you're likely getting better lines than I calculated. Anyway, I look for your picks every week and it's clear you're doing something right. I appreciate you sharing.
0
@vanzack
VZ, Sorry I short changed you in the other thread. I had you somewhere between +16-18 units, but you're likely getting better lines than I calculated. Anyway, I look for your picks every week and it's clear you're doing something right. I appreciate you sharing.
@vanzack VZ, Sorry I short changed you in the other thread. I had you somewhere between +16-18 units, but you're likely getting better lines than I calculated. Anyway, I look for your picks every week and it's clear you're doing something right. I appreciate you sharing.
Couldnt care less.
Someone in that thread called it a good old fashioned tout hunt.
Just fun and games. All mental masturbation. Would rather have another .0001 of profitability than win arguments on covers- just a fun way to kill some time.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
5
Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:
@vanzack VZ, Sorry I short changed you in the other thread. I had you somewhere between +16-18 units, but you're likely getting better lines than I calculated. Anyway, I look for your picks every week and it's clear you're doing something right. I appreciate you sharing.
Couldnt care less.
Someone in that thread called it a good old fashioned tout hunt.
Just fun and games. All mental masturbation. Would rather have another .0001 of profitability than win arguments on covers- just a fun way to kill some time.
I'm gonna need you to add the 0-2 "total of the week" into your record even though you didn't bet them. Full transparency!!
Just busting chops.
Will be on Tennessee....but also Pickens props.....Steelers won't be able to run....and after last week where Pickens got 5 target and 1 catch.....while D Johnson had 14 targets and was force fed in bad situations by Pickett.....I expect Pitt to look for Pickens more.....doesn't hurt that Titans are bottom half in pass D (which is kinda misleading since teams have to throw on them).....
Van
0
I'm gonna need you to add the 0-2 "total of the week" into your record even though you didn't bet them. Full transparency!!
Just busting chops.
Will be on Tennessee....but also Pickens props.....Steelers won't be able to run....and after last week where Pickens got 5 target and 1 catch.....while D Johnson had 14 targets and was force fed in bad situations by Pickett.....I expect Pitt to look for Pickens more.....doesn't hurt that Titans are bottom half in pass D (which is kinda misleading since teams have to throw on them).....
I'm gonna need you to add the 0-2 total of the week into your record even though you didn't bet them. Full transparency!! Just busting chops. Will be on Tennessee....but also Pickens props.....Steelers won't be able to run....and after last week where Pickens got 5 target and 1 catch.....while D Johnson had 14 targets and was force fed in bad situations by Pickett.....I expect Pitt to look for Pickens more.....doesn't hurt that Titans are bottom half in pass D (which is kinda misleading since teams have to throw on them)..... Van
0-3! You must have missed last weeks winner. Cowboys / Rams under.
GL tonight.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
I'm gonna need you to add the 0-2 total of the week into your record even though you didn't bet them. Full transparency!! Just busting chops. Will be on Tennessee....but also Pickens props.....Steelers won't be able to run....and after last week where Pickens got 5 target and 1 catch.....while D Johnson had 14 targets and was force fed in bad situations by Pickett.....I expect Pitt to look for Pickens more.....doesn't hurt that Titans are bottom half in pass D (which is kinda misleading since teams have to throw on them)..... Van
0-3! You must have missed last weeks winner. Cowboys / Rams under.
Goes to show how much of a difference the -110 vig makes and why line shopping is so important. Best 3 available is -105 at PB but they are very quick to limit/ban.
0
Goes to show how much of a difference the -110 vig makes and why line shopping is so important. Best 3 available is -105 at PB but they are very quick to limit/ban.
Goes to show how much of a difference the -110 vig makes and why line shopping is so important. Best 3 available is -105 at PB but they are very quick to limit/ban.
Ever try lowvig.ag?
Fantastic reduced shop. Wont limit or ban. 5k at a time limits. 10 cent NFL lines.
Currently at +3 -105. I am on an exchange that currently has offers you can take at +3 +102.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
Quote Originally Posted by CaseyMcGehee:
Goes to show how much of a difference the -110 vig makes and why line shopping is so important. Best 3 available is -105 at PB but they are very quick to limit/ban.
Ever try lowvig.ag?
Fantastic reduced shop. Wont limit or ban. 5k at a time limits. 10 cent NFL lines.
Currently at +3 -105. I am on an exchange that currently has offers you can take at +3 +102.
Quote Originally Posted by CaseyMcGehee: Goes to show how much of a difference the -110 vig makes and why line shopping is so important. Best 3 available is -105 at PB but they are very quick to limit/ban. Ever try lowvig.ag? Fantastic reduced shop. Wont limit or ban. 5k at a time limits. 10 cent NFL lines.
I have an account there but don’t use it often, they are sharp. I’m not much of a handicapper I just punish the soft books when they make mistakes.
0
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by CaseyMcGehee: Goes to show how much of a difference the -110 vig makes and why line shopping is so important. Best 3 available is -105 at PB but they are very quick to limit/ban. Ever try lowvig.ag? Fantastic reduced shop. Wont limit or ban. 5k at a time limits. 10 cent NFL lines.
I have an account there but don’t use it often, they are sharp. I’m not much of a handicapper I just punish the soft books when they make mistakes.
I like TEN as well. All the hype about Levis from last week is gonna be tough to live up to as a rookie on a short week, but it won't matter if Henry runs all over the iron, er, aluminum curtain defense. I have this one as close to even, so I see value in getting 3 pts in what should be a low scoring affair.
Have you had a chance to read Billy Walters book? I just finished it and was curious about your thoughts on the last couple of chapters about his methodology.
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.
0
@vanzack
I like TEN as well. All the hype about Levis from last week is gonna be tough to live up to as a rookie on a short week, but it won't matter if Henry runs all over the iron, er, aluminum curtain defense. I have this one as close to even, so I see value in getting 3 pts in what should be a low scoring affair.
Have you had a chance to read Billy Walters book? I just finished it and was curious about your thoughts on the last couple of chapters about his methodology.
@CaseyMcGehee I am trying out a couple of exchanges that I cant recommend yet - but for people like you, I assume would be great. Huge liquidity (right now seeing 30K+ on each side of the NFL game), and usually 1 cent lines. When I feel comfortable enough, I will advise.
How long do think it will take for an exchange or peer vs peer gambling site/app to take a place by all the normal sportsbooks? Will they buy and smother the app? Would be great for most bettors as it would basically eliminate the juice and would just pay a small fee for them being the money middle man.....
1
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
@CaseyMcGehee I am trying out a couple of exchanges that I cant recommend yet - but for people like you, I assume would be great. Huge liquidity (right now seeing 30K+ on each side of the NFL game), and usually 1 cent lines. When I feel comfortable enough, I will advise.
How long do think it will take for an exchange or peer vs peer gambling site/app to take a place by all the normal sportsbooks? Will they buy and smother the app? Would be great for most bettors as it would basically eliminate the juice and would just pay a small fee for them being the money middle man.....
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: @CaseyMcGehee I am trying out a couple of exchanges that I cant recommend yet - but for people like you, I assume would be great. Huge liquidity (right now seeing 30K+ on each side of the NFL game), and usually 1 cent lines. When I feel comfortable enough, I will advise. How long do think it will take for an exchange or peer vs peer gambling site/app to take a place by all the normal sportsbooks? Will they buy and smother the app? Would be great for most bettors as it would basically eliminate the juice and would just pay a small fee for them being the money middle man.....
In the regulated market, there is one that is growing called sporttrade (I think).
There is no reason that they shouldnt have 98% of the regulated handle. Except....
Sports gamblers are idiots. They would rather have prop options like who will pick their nose during the game, and that cant happen at exchanges. They also do not understand the value of pennies, they just dont care. And to boot... They dont like the idea of making offers and then waiting to get accepted. They want to push a button and be done.
But for those that it makes sense for..... It is an incredible tool. Like I said - I am testing a couple right now - and I am amazed.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: @CaseyMcGehee I am trying out a couple of exchanges that I cant recommend yet - but for people like you, I assume would be great. Huge liquidity (right now seeing 30K+ on each side of the NFL game), and usually 1 cent lines. When I feel comfortable enough, I will advise. How long do think it will take for an exchange or peer vs peer gambling site/app to take a place by all the normal sportsbooks? Will they buy and smother the app? Would be great for most bettors as it would basically eliminate the juice and would just pay a small fee for them being the money middle man.....
In the regulated market, there is one that is growing called sporttrade (I think).
There is no reason that they shouldnt have 98% of the regulated handle. Except....
Sports gamblers are idiots. They would rather have prop options like who will pick their nose during the game, and that cant happen at exchanges. They also do not understand the value of pennies, they just dont care. And to boot... They dont like the idea of making offers and then waiting to get accepted. They want to push a button and be done.
But for those that it makes sense for..... It is an incredible tool. Like I said - I am testing a couple right now - and I am amazed.
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: @CaseyMcGehee I am trying out a couple of exchanges that I cant recommend yet - but for people like you, I assume would be great. Huge liquidity (right now seeing 30K+ on each side of the NFL game), and usually 1 cent lines. When I feel comfortable enough, I will advise. How long do think it will take for an exchange or peer vs peer gambling site/app to take a place by all the normal sportsbooks? Will they buy and smother the app? Would be great for most bettors as it would basically eliminate the juice and would just pay a small fee for them being the money middle man..... In the regulated market, there is one that is growing called sporttrade (I think). There is no reason that they shouldnt have 98% of the regulated handle. Except.... Sports gamblers are idiots. They would rather have prop options like who will pick their nose during the game, and that cant happen at exchanges. They also do not understand the value of pennies, they just dont care. And to boot... They dont like the idea of making offers and then waiting to get accepted. They want to push a button and be done. But for those that it makes sense for..... It is an incredible tool. Like I said - I am testing a couple right now - and I am amazed.
I will have to look into this, but I’m assuming it’s mostly people posting a 20-100$ bet and waiting for them to be accepted. The one you referenced is only available in NJ and CO but I’m sure others will pop up soon. Once they gain enough volume and credibility I will probably be on there.
0
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: @CaseyMcGehee I am trying out a couple of exchanges that I cant recommend yet - but for people like you, I assume would be great. Huge liquidity (right now seeing 30K+ on each side of the NFL game), and usually 1 cent lines. When I feel comfortable enough, I will advise. How long do think it will take for an exchange or peer vs peer gambling site/app to take a place by all the normal sportsbooks? Will they buy and smother the app? Would be great for most bettors as it would basically eliminate the juice and would just pay a small fee for them being the money middle man..... In the regulated market, there is one that is growing called sporttrade (I think). There is no reason that they shouldnt have 98% of the regulated handle. Except.... Sports gamblers are idiots. They would rather have prop options like who will pick their nose during the game, and that cant happen at exchanges. They also do not understand the value of pennies, they just dont care. And to boot... They dont like the idea of making offers and then waiting to get accepted. They want to push a button and be done. But for those that it makes sense for..... It is an incredible tool. Like I said - I am testing a couple right now - and I am amazed.
I will have to look into this, but I’m assuming it’s mostly people posting a 20-100$ bet and waiting for them to be accepted. The one you referenced is only available in NJ and CO but I’m sure others will pop up soon. Once they gain enough volume and credibility I will probably be on there.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Titans +3 (1.5 units)
Hot Forum Topics
