Thursday Night Football... No stone gets left unturned Part 2.

I know what everyone's thinking when they see this matchup. The Bengals are 2-4, they've dropped four straight, Joe Burrow is on IR, and here come the 4-1 Steelers riding a three-game win streak. It feels like a layup for Pittsburgh, right? Wrong. This is exactly the type of spot where the betting public overreacts to records and narratives while completely ignoring the actual matchup dynamics and situational factors that make this game far closer than the surface suggests.

I'm hammering Bengals +5, and here's why this might be the best value play of the entire week.

THE JOE FLACCO FACTOR THAT EVERYONE'S SLEEPING ON

First, let's talk about what happened last Sunday in Green Bay. Yeah, the Bengals lost 27-18 to the Packers, but if you actually watched that game instead of just looking at the box score, you saw something really encouraging develop in the second half. Flacco had literally been with the team for less than five days after being traded from Cleveland on Tuesday. He barely practiced with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all week because Chase was dealing with an illness.

And you know what? After a predictably rough first half where they were figuring things out on the fly, the offense came alive. Flacco and Chase connected on 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. Higgins had five catches for 62 yards - both season highs for him. The chemistry was there, and they were literally making up plays in the huddle on fourth down.

Now fast forward to Thursday. Flacco's had an entire week to work with these receivers. He's one of the most experienced quarterbacks in NFL history with 67 career games against AFC North opponents - including 22 starts against the Steelers where he's 11-11 with 27 TDs and just 12 INTs. This isn't some rookie getting thrown to the wolves. This is a savvy veteran who knows this division inside and out, and he's suddenly got the two best receivers he's played with in years.

People keep joking about "old man Flacco" but seem to forget that in Cleveland this year, he was throwing to literally the worst-graded receiving corps in the entire league according to Pro Football Focus. The Browns receivers are ranked dead last. The Bengals? They're 19th. But more importantly, Chase and Higgins are legitimate Pro Bowl-caliber weapons. Chase just put up the receiving Triple Crown last year he led the entire NFL in catches, yards, and touchdowns. When's the last time Flacco had someone even close to that level?

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL LOVES UNDERDOGS

Here's a trend that sharp bettors have been crushing all season: Thursday Night Football underdogs. Of the six Thursday games played so far this season, favorites have only covered once - Packers over Commanders in Week 2, which was the only non-divisional matchup. Every other Thursday game? The underdog either covered or won outright.

Week 1: Cowboys covered at Eagles
Week 3: Dolphins covered at Buffalo
Week 4: Seahawks won outright (opened as dogs)
Week 5: 49ers won outright at Rams
Week 6: Giants beat Eagles outright

Now we've got another divisional Thursday night game. The combination of short weeks and familiarity between division rivals is a perfect storm for underdogs. Teams that play each other twice every single year know each other's tendencies, schemes, and personnel better than anyone. The talent gap shrinks when you've studied film on someone for years.

THE BENGALS AT HOME AS UNDERDOGS ARE MONEY

This is where the betting data gets really juicy. The Bengals are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 home games when they're underdogs of 3 or more points. Four of those covers were outright wins. This isn't some fluke - it's a pattern. When Cincinnati gets written off at home, they show up.

And Paycor Stadium has been a house of horrors for opposing defenses this year. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 9 Bengals home games. We're talking high-scoring affairs where Cincinnati's offense can move the ball. Their defense might be 30th in the league in scoring defense, but that also means games turn into shootouts, which is exactly what you want when you're getting points.

THE STEELERS' OFFENSIVE LIMITATIONS ARE REAL

Now let's flip the script and talk about Pittsburgh. Yes, they're 4-1. Yes, they've won three straight. But have you actually looked at what their offense is doing? They're averaging 277.8 yards per game - that's the fourth-worst offense in the entire league. Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown for more than 244 yards in a single game all season, and that 244 came back in Week 1 against the Jets.

Rodgers is 41 years old. His legs aren't what they used to be. His arm strength has diminished. Against Cleveland last week, he had several badly underthrown deep balls. He's completing 68.8% of his passes which looks good on paper, but he's doing it with a career-low 196.5 yards per game and an average depth of target of just 7.3 yards - his lowest as a starter. The Steelers are scheming around an aging quarterback who can't escape pressure and doesn't threaten defenses vertically anymore.

Their offensive line has been inconsistent at best. Rodgers has been sacked multiple times in consecutive games and taken numerous hits. Against Seattle in Week 2, he was holding his wrist late in the game and had to come out. This is not a robust, dominant offense that's going to blow teams out. They're winning with defense and managing games, which means tight, low-scoring contests - perfect for a home underdog getting a key number.

FIVE IS A GOLDEN NUMBER

Speaking of key numbers, we're getting a hook on top of five here with the 5.5. That's huge. Five is one of the most important numbers in the NFL behind three and seven. How many games are decided by exactly five points? Or four points where we win outright with the 5.5? Field goal plus safety. Touchdown minus two-point conversion. This number matters, and getting the extra half-point is worth its weight in gold.

The line opened at 5.5 and hasn't really budged despite the public hammering Pittsburgh. That tells me the sharp money knows something. When a line doesn't move toward the favorite despite heavy public betting, it's usually a sign that the books are happy to take that action because they've got liability the other way.

DIVISIONAL RIVALRY + REVENGE GAME NARRATIVE

These two teams just played in January - the last game of the regular season - and the Bengals won 19-17 at Pittsburgh. Now, that game had different circumstances (Steelers had already clinched and rested some guys), but Cincinnati knows they can beat this team. There's familiarity, there's recent success, and there's the added motivation of playing in front of their home crowd on national television with their season hanging in the balance.

The Bengals are 0-4 in their last four games, but three of those losses came with Jake Browning at quarterback. Flacco is a legitimate upgrade, and everyone in that locker room knows this is essentially a must-win game to keep any playoff hopes alive. Desperation is a hell of a motivator.

Plus, Pittsburgh has owned this rivalry historically, but division games are always tight. The underdog has covered in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these teams. Tomlin is 19 years into coaching the Steelers - these Bengals players have seen every look, every blitz package, every coverage scheme he can throw at them.

THE CHASE-HIGGINS ADVANTAGE

Let me paint you a picture of what Pittsburgh's secondary is walking into. Ja'Marr Chase has recorded 77+ receiving yards in each of the Bengals' last eight regular season games as a home underdog. That's not a typo. Eight straight games. He thrives in this role.

Chase has also been cooking the Steelers specifically - he's had at least 81 receiving yards in each of his last four games against Pittsburgh. He's averaging over 70 yards per game against them for his career with a touchdown in most of those matchups. The Steelers know he's getting the ball, and they still can't stop him.

Now add in Tee Higgins, who's finally healthy and building chemistry with Flacco. You've got two receivers who can win one-on-one matchups all over the field. The Steelers' secondary, while improved, isn't some lockdown unit. They gave up 350 yards and two touchdowns to Carson Wentz in Week 4. If a backup-level quarterback with elite weapons can produce, what's stopping Flacco and this receiving duo from having a big night?

THE DEFENSIVE MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Yes, Cincinnati's defense is atrocious - 30th in points allowed, 29th in passing yards, 30th in red zone defense. They're bad. But here's the thing: they're facing an offense that's barely functional. The Steelers are 32nd in rushing offense, averaging just 84 yards per game on the ground. They can't run the ball, which means they're one-dimensional, and that one dimension is a 41-year-old quarterback with limited mobility.

Pittsburgh's game plan is predictable: lots of play-action to keep the defense honest (even though their run game isn't threatening), roll Rodgers out to his right to keep him away from pass rushers, take short throws underneath, and rely on their defense to create turnovers. That works great when you're playing teams that make mistakes. But Flacco, for all his faults, is a Super Bowl MVP who protects the football when it matters. He knows how to manage a game.

Meanwhile, the Bengals' defense - while bad on paper - can generate pressure when needed. They've got Trey Hendrickson on the edge who's one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL. If he can get home on Rodgers a couple times and disrupt the timing of this short passing game, suddenly Pittsburgh's offense stalls out.

THE SCORING ENVIRONMENT

Both teams are going to score points in this game. The Over/Under is sitting at 43.5-45 depending on where you look, and I actually think that goes over. But more importantly for our purposes, if this game hits 47-48 combined points, we're looking at something like 24-23 or 27-20 - both scenarios where the Bengals either cover comfortably or win outright.

The Bengals' offense, even with Flacco at the helm, has shown it can put up points at home. They scored 24 against Detroit in a loss, and 31 against Jacksonville in a win. With an extra week to game plan and Flacco now fully integrated, I expect them to hit the 20-point mark at minimum. If Pittsburgh keeps pace and scores 27-28, we're still covering with the 5.5.

THE COACHING AND SITUATIONAL EDGE

Zac Taylor might take heat for the Bengals' struggles, but he's been in this position before. His team's back is against the wall, and he knows exactly what buttons to push. He's got a veteran quarterback who thrives on quick passes and getting the ball to playmakers in space. The Bengals' offense is designed around creating mismatches and letting Chase and Higgins win. It's simple, but it's effective when executed properly.

Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in NFL history, no question. But his team is also coming off a short week after playing Sunday. They've got to travel to Cincinnati, deal with a hostile crowd in a division rivalry game, and try to contain two elite receivers with a secondary that's been exploited before.

Tomlin's Steelers have covered in 8 of their last 8 October games as favorites against AFC North opponents, which sounds scary for our bet. But those trends don't account for the specific circumstances of this year's Bengals team - a new quarterback with elite weapons playing at home with everything on the line.

THE BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, this comes down to a simple question: can the Steelers beat the Bengals by more than five points on a short week, on the road, in a divisional rivalry game, against a desperate team with a veteran quarterback and two of the best receivers in football?

I don't think they can.

This Steelers team wins close games. They're 4-1, but three of those wins came by seven points or less (34-32 vs. Jets, 23-20 vs. Broncos, 23-9 vs. Browns). They're built to grind out victories, not blow teams out. Cincinnati is going to score points at home - they always do. And if this game stays within one score, which I fully expect it to, we're golden with the +5.

I'm not saying the Bengals are going to win outright (though I wouldn't be shocked if they do - they're getting +225 on the moneyline which has value too). What I am saying is that this number is inflated because of public perception and recent records. The betting market is giving us an extra point or two based on narrative rather than the actual X's and O's matchup.

Sharp money knows this. Thursday Night Football trends know this. Division rivalry history knows this. Home underdog splits know this.

Give me the Bengals +5 all day long. This is a gift from the sportsbooks, and I'm not looking it in the mouth.

Final Play: Bengals +5 (-110) for 2 units

Lock it in. See you Thursday night when Flacco and Chase cook this overrated Steelers secondary, and we're cashing tickets while everyone else is wondering what happened.

Gimme Cincinatti +5  

@JimmyGape

 Damn, well done on the writeup 

@JimmyGape

Man, outside of Niner games you are impressive. Beautiful write up and sound reasoning. I'll take a bite of Cinci with you. GL 

That's a lot of write up for a bad Bengals team!  

Nice copy and paste 

D

Hendrickson isn't even playing. 

Will Flacco have time that is the big Question

@Michigan_D

 Bro you suck 

@JimmyGape

 Finally he posts a sure fire winner 

well done

add the under and the money line and parlay them and then add Jax plus points and over 

bless your soul 

@JimmyGape

 And for even more fun:

add Tulsa plus points

maybe even Tulsa and over

and Tulsa money line

12 - 3 last 15 +300*

@JimmyGape

What about pass blocking for Flacco?  You mention Rodgers is 41, with bad legs, but Flacco is 40, and he runs even slower.  Cincy's OL sucks.  There's no way they keep Watt out of the backfield.  And their defense?  Forget it.  I'll take Pit all day long.

@nmgolf57

@JimmyGape 

JG your getting some odd info  

Hendrickson never even had a slight chance of playing , he’s inactive 

Hater. Huntsman’s B*t*h

Lolajaha

12 - 3 last 15 +300*

Keep following bro

You bring nothing to the forum

Over seems like the obvious play.  Bengals D is horrible.  But total less than 45.

Think Flacco might have trouble scoring or keeping up.  In which case the cover stands little to no chance.

Especially since bengals is DEAD last in run offense.  Makes them one dimensional.  Putting too much on Joe number 2!

Any JOE on this team seems doomed.

Chill...If flacco was that good.. he would be a starter for a team right now, this year. But lets watch

@JimmyGape

  Actually, I never read your write up until now, and it seems we agreed?  I took Bengals + pts and over.  Singles, not parlayed like some do.. lol..

I didn't finish reading your whole thread for what's it worth..  sorry.. hubby being an ass and trying to pack to go out of town Mon.

Leaving no stone unturned makes ML winners out of dogs.  Stay tuned for round 3.