Thursday Night Football Analysis and Write Up. We're back to leaving no stones unturned.

Let's talk about Thursday Night Football because this Vikings-Chargers matchup is way more lopsided than that 3-point spread suggests. Both teams are coming off losses, both sitting at losing records (Minnesota 3-3, LA 4-3), but the underlying numbers tell two completely different stories about where these teams are actually headed.

I spent the afternoon digging through the advanced metrics, and what I found has me incredibly confident about this game. Let me walk you through why this Chargers team, despite having the NFL's leading passer, is in serious trouble tonight.

The Chargers' Defensive Collapse is Real
Here's what nobody seems to be emphasizing enough: the Chargers defense has completely fallen apart. We're not talking about a slight regression here. Over their last three games, LA ranks dead last, 32nd out of 32 teams, in yards per play allowed. That's not a typo. The worst defense in football over the past three weeks.

And it's not just the yards. They've given up at least 27 points in each of their last three games, including that 38-point beatdown by Indianapolis last week. When you average it out, they're surrendering 30.6 points per game over this stretch. For context, the Colts, a team that's been inconsistent all year, just went into SoFi and put up 401 yards and 38 points like it was a walk in the park.

The pass defense has been particularly vulnerable. They're allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt over the last three games, which ranks as the sixth worst mark in the NFL during that span. And tonight they're facing a Vikings offense that, despite all the quarterback drama, has found a groove.

Carson Wentz: The Thursday Night Assassin
I get it. Carson Wentz isn't winning any MVP awards. But here's what matters: the dude is 7-0 in his career on Thursday Night Football. Seven and zero. And under his four starts this season, Minnesota has scored at least 21 points every single game. Not 20. Not 19. Every start has cleared 21 points.
Last week against Philly wasn't pretty. He threw two picks and took a beating from that pass rush. But he still put up 313 yards, and more importantly, he's shown he can produce when the Vikings need him to. Over his last three starts, he's posted two 300+ yard passing games. The volume is there.
And he's got Justin Jefferson, who's averaging 88 receiving yards per game (fourth in the NFL) and has gone over 100 yards in two of his last three. Jefferson has been on an absolute tear, and the Chargers' secondary, which has been getting torched lately, has no answers for elite receivers right now.

Minnesota's Defense: Elite With a Capital E

Now let's flip to the other side, because this is where things get really interesting. Minnesota's defense isn't just good. They're historically dominant by one very important metric. Their EPA per play on defense is negative 0.234, which leads the entire NFL. The next closest team? Jacksonville at negative 0.114. Minnesota is lapping the field.

They rank second in the league in defensive DVOA, second in third down defense, and fourth in red zone defense. Nearly 70% of their defensive possessions don't result in points, which is the second best mark in the entire league. When you combine that with their pass rush, third in hurry percentage and fourth in sack percentage, you've got a defense that can absolutely suffocate opponents.

Brian Flores runs one of the most aggressive schemes in football. They're blitzing 38% of the time, which is the second highest rate in the NFL. And tonight, they're going up against a Chargers offensive line that's held together with duct tape and prayers.

The Injury Situation is Catastrophic for LA
This is the part that should have everyone pumping the brakes on the Chargers. Their offensive line is in absolute shambles. Both starting tackles, Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins III, are questionable and have been limited all week. They already lost Rashawn Slater for the season. So we're potentially looking at backup tackles on both sides against that Minnesota blitz.

And the running back room? Forget about it. Omarion Hampton is on IR. Najee Harris is on IR. Hassan Haskins was just ruled out with a hamstring injury. The only healthy back they have is Kimani Vidal, who's averaging a solid 5.2 yards per carry but is now being asked to shoulder the entire load.
Think about what that means for Justin Herbert. He just threw 55 times last week in a blowout loss because they couldn't run the ball (54 yards total). Now he's got to drop back 50+ times again against the NFL's best defense by EPA, with a patchwork offensive line, while Minnesota brings pressure on nearly 40% of snaps? That's a recipe for disaster.

The Rushing Game Mismatch
Here's another angle worth exploring: Minnesota has quietly transformed into a running team this year. They rank fifth in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA, which is a massive departure from their pass-happy identity under Kevin O'Connell in previous seasons. Jordan Mason has been steady, averaging 70.5 rushing yards over his four starts with four touchdowns.

And guess who they're running against? A Chargers defense that's allowing 5.1 yards per carry, which ranks 28th in the NFL, fourth worst in the league. They've given up at least 118 rushing yards in five consecutive games. The Vikings should be able to establish the ground game early and use it to set up play action shots to Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Speaking of Addison, he's been money since returning from suspension. He has 18 catches for nearly 300 yards and a touchdown in three games. The Vikings have legitimate weapons all over the field.

The Trends Tell a Story

Let me hit you with some trends that sealed the deal for me:
The Vikings are 16 and 6 covering the +3 line in their last 20 road games. They've covered it in three consecutive road games. They're 14 and 6 ATS on the road since the start of 2023. This team travels well and plays tough in hostile environments.
Meanwhile, the Chargers haven't covered the 3 point line in four consecutive games. They're 1 and 2 ATS as favorites of 3.5 points or more this season. They haven't covered 3 points in 11 of their last 20 home games. And overall, they're just 3 and 4 ATS on the season.
Now, there is one trend that gives me slight pause: the Chargers are 4 and 0 ATS on short rest under Jim Harbaugh. That's legit. Harbaugh is a master motivator, and he knows how to get teams ready on short weeks. But even that can't overcome the sheer volume of issues LA is dealing with right now.

The X-Factor: Thursday Night Chaos
Thursday Night Football is always a bit of a wild card. Short weeks mean less preparation time, sloppier execution, and more chaos. But I actually think that favors Minnesota here. The Vikings have the better, healthier roster. They have the better defense. They have the quarterback who thrives on Thursday nights. The Chargers are limping into this game with half their offensive line questionable and zero running backs.
Herbert is phenomenal. He leads the NFL with 1,913 passing yards and just threw for 420 last week. But he can't do it alone. Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston are all solid weapons, but if Herbert doesn't have time to throw, none of that matters. And based on what we've seen from this offensive line situation, combined with Minnesota's elite pass rush, I don't think he's going to have much time at all.

The Bottom Line

This line opened at Chargers 3.5 and has moved to 3 in some spots, which tells me the sharp money is coming in on Minnesota. And I completely understand why. The Vikings have the better defense, the better injury situation, the better recent trends, and a quarterback who historically dominates on Thursday nights.

I think Minnesota wins this game outright, something like 24 to 20. But even if the Chargers squeak out a close win at home, I'm confident the Vikings keep it within a field goal. That Chargers defense is just too leaky right now, and their offensive line situation is too dire.
We really like the Minnesota in this spot.

Gimme the Vikings +3   

@JimmyGape

 
Holy STONE cold stunner Batman !

The STONE cold killer has returned ! 

Lets go brotha man 

I'm addicted to reading your writeup, @JimmyGape

Nice!  Maybe I did scan over that 24-20 and posted it in my thread.  GL tonight.....

@JimmyGape

Got me convinced 

I agree the Chargers have a lot of issues but I think you're (as usual) going overboard here, on how great Minnesota defense is. They played Cleveland and Cincinnati for starters.

If their defense is so elite and the Chargers so bad why did the Vikings just give up 7.4 yards per play to the 24th ranked ypp offense while the Chargers just gave up 6.9 to the 2nd ranked offense?

That's an unturned stone in my book. But I admit I will probably regret picking LA I always do and told everyone not to bet them last week.

I don't understand how they manage to have half their offense injured half the year every single fkin year. Usually it's the WRs now it's the RBs and OL.

Despite the bad OL situation for LA Minnesota has given up more sacks than they have. Only Jets and Titans gave up more. Vikings have a few more gotten on defense but not a ton more.

I do think both QB will struggle and Wentz has an advantage with his guys being better at bailing him out and with LA being decimated at RB how do you slow down the blitzing Vikings if you can't run can't screen and the 2 guys they elevated from the practice squad aren't good blitz protectors.

I dunno why i don't just take the Under. Gonna be a lot of sacks. Chargers suck in the red zone and the Vikings offense is pretty predictable force it to JJ all the time. Wentz will hold the ball and get sacked a few times too.

see that he did his homework easy only 1 game but do full card this way take whole week 

dunno how if you work at some office until 5 pm get home 5 30 eat watch tv then what go to bed 

me not working right now and losing 

@JimmyGape

 Good luck tonight 

@JimmyGape

Great write ups, great info!! I was slightly leaning towards the Vikings +3, now I’m all in!! Bol! 

btw jimmy ty for this deatiled write up i was able to get $100 on vikes ml +135 

not gut feeling here just qb of chrgers is bad this year 0-5 ats last 5 games 2 wins 

btw the ats score card in play book shows chargers 1-3 last 4 matchups vs vikes 

Good stuff, GL 

This post is pure Gold 

[Quote: Originally Posted by tjones1270]see that he did his homework easy only 1 game but do full card this way take whole week    dunno how if you work at some office until 5 pm get home 5 30 eat watch tv then what go to bed    me not working right now and losing[/Quote]

Free advise: First, go to night school and take a basic english class.  Then work on your punctuation, and sentence structure.  Check back with me after you accomplish these two things, then we will go to work on how to dress for success. 

Your welcome

GL  on your play @JimmyGape 

@Cooler999 wazzuuuup mah man 

@JimmyGape

Agree w you Jimmy

@Cooler999

 It's advice, not advise.  And it's "you're welcome, not your welcome."  Hard to criticize others when you're making thr same grammatical errors 

I agree, but it is a cut above tjones.......BTW check your spelling. It's "the"......we are all human.....I think.