?? NFL PRESEASON HALFTIME SCENARIOS — WEEK 1
Game date: 2026-08-15
CAR @ BUF
?? HALFTIME SCENARIO
CAR 7–13 BUF — HALFTIME
Q1: CAR 0–10 BUF
Q2: CAR 7–3 BUF
CAR trailed after Q1 and still trails at halftime.
?? LEAGUE — 2015–2025 REGULAR SEASONS
Teams that trailed after Q1 and by 1–7 points at halftime:
Record: 223–489
Win rate: 31.3%
Losses: 68.7%
Sample: 712
?? CAR IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS
Record: 5–13
Raw: 27.8%
Adjusted: 29.6%
Sample: 18 — small
?? BUF IN THE MIRROR SITUATION
Record: 15–5
Raw: 75.0%
Adjusted: 71.8%
Sample: 20 — small
?? PREGAME SPREAD
CAR +2.5 | BUF -2.5
Similar spread: underdog +2 to +3
Underdogs: 13–35 (27.1%)
Favorites: 35–13 (72.9%)
Sample: 48 — moderate
?? SUMMARY
League halftime baseline: CAR side 31.3%, BUF side 68.7%.
Team-adjusted estimates: CAR 29.6%, BUF 71.8%.
Spread history: underdogs 27.1%, favorites 72.9%.
Overall historical context favors BUF.
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CLE @ CHI
?? HALFTIME SCENARIO
CLE 10–10 CHI — HALFTIME
Q1: CLE 3–0 CHI
Q2: CLE 7–10 CHI
CLE led after Q1, but the game is tied at halftime.
?? LEAGUE — 2015–2025 REGULAR SEASONS
Teams in this game state:
Record: 66–67–2
Win rate: 48.9%
Losses: 49.6%
Ties: 1.5%
Sample: 135
?? CLE IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS
Record: 1–4
Raw: 20.0%
Adjusted: 43.1%
Sample: 5 — very small
?? CHI IN THE MIRROR SITUATION
Record: 0–3
Raw: 0.0%
Adjusted: 43.2%
Sample: 3 — very small
?? PREGAME SPREAD
CLE +1.5 | CHI -1.5
Similar spread: underdog +0.5 to +1.5
Underdogs: 25–38 (39.7%)
Favorites: 38–25 (60.3%)
Sample: 63 — moderate
?? SUMMARY
League halftime baseline: CLE side 48.9%, CHI side 49.6%.
Team-adjusted estimates: CLE 43.1%, CHI 43.2%.
Spread history: underdogs 39.7%, favorites 60.3%.
Overall historical context slightly favors CHI.
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MIN @ NYG
?? HALFTIME SCENARIO
MIN 3–10 NYG — HALFTIME
Q1: MIN 3–0 NYG
Q2: MIN 0–10 NYG
MIN led after Q1 but trails by 7 at halftime.
?? LEAGUE — 2015–2025 REGULAR SEASONS
Teams that led after Q1 but trailed by 1–7 points at halftime:
Record: 108–202–2
Win rate: 34.6%
Losses: 64.7%
Ties: 0.6%
Sample: 312
?? MIN IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS
Record: 1–4
Raw: 20.0%
Adjusted: 31.7%
Sample: 5 — very small
?? NYG IN THE MIRROR SITUATION
Record: 4–2
Raw: 66.7%
Adjusted: 65.2%
Sample: 6 — very small
?? PREGAME SPREAD
MIN -2.5 | NYG +2.5
Similar spread: underdog +2 to +3
Favorites: 21–24 (46.7%)
Underdogs: 24–21 (53.3%)
Sample: 45 — moderate
?? SUMMARY
League halftime baseline: MIN side 34.6%, NYG side 64.7%.
Team-adjusted estimates: MIN 31.7%, NYG 65.2%.
Spread history: favorites 46.7%, underdogs 53.3%.
Overall historical context favors NYG.
?? Preseason games are compared with the 2015–2025 regular-season baseline; rotations and motivation may differ. Historical context only — not a standalone live betting signal.
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