I was curious about the results of Stram's formula for the upcoming game. I know that early on when Stram created the formula it was very successful in the 20th century but when the game became passing centric it spit out the wrong team and missed on several occasions. He was no longer here to tweak his system and knowing him, he would have done a good job bringing it up to speed.
DISCLAIMER: I provide this for entertainment purposes only. Has it been successful in the 21st century? Not as much as in the 20th century but it had the winner last year!!!
I used stats on covers, the nfl stats website, and an nfl database for the penalty yards. If you get different numbers, so be it. I COULD CARE LESS!!! I went over it a number of times for accuracy. This is what I came up with.
I am not a snake oil salesman selling a side. I admire Stram's legacy and his work as a head coach and his analysis on the MNF games on the radio over the years. The guy was money in his handicapping. RIP
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I was curious about the results of Stram's formula for the upcoming game. I know that early on when Stram created the formula it was very successful in the 20th century but when the game became passing centric it spit out the wrong team and missed on several occasions. He was no longer here to tweak his system and knowing him, he would have done a good job bringing it up to speed.
DISCLAIMER: I provide this for entertainment purposes only. Has it been successful in the 21st century? Not as much as in the 20th century but it had the winner last year!!!
I used stats on covers, the nfl stats website, and an nfl database for the penalty yards. If you get different numbers, so be it. I COULD CARE LESS!!! I went over it a number of times for accuracy. This is what I came up with.
I am not a snake oil salesman selling a side. I admire Stram's legacy and his work as a head coach and his analysis on the MNF games on the radio over the years. The guy was money in his handicapping. RIP
Seahawks 34.5Patriots 21Had to put the total on a separate page as it was over 4,000 characters.
Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074:
Give 10 points to a team if they have won a Super Bowl in the last three seasons. N/A Give 8.0 points to either team if their opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history. N/A Give 8.0 points to the team that has given up the fewer amount of defensive rushes. Patriots (Patriots 411 to 418 for Seahawks) Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs. Patriots (Patriots 17-3/Seahawks 16-3) Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes on the season. Seahawks (Seahawks 507/Patriots 494) Give 5.0 points to the team with the better defensive yards-per-carry average. Seahawks (Seahawks 3.7/Patriots 4.2) Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kickoff-punt touchdown returns. N/A (Both had 3 total, 1 kickoff and 2 punt TD returns each) Give 4.0 points to the team who performed better against the point spread in the regular season. Seahawks (Seahawks 12-5/Patriots 11-6) Give 4.0 points to the team that has the better net penalty yards number. Seattle (Seahawks+120/Patriots -64) Give 3.5 points to the team that has the greater yards per pass attempt. Patriots (Patriots 8.9/Seahawks 8.4) Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed up the fewest points on the season. Seahawks (Seahawks 292/Patriots 320) Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest amount of rushing touchdowns. Seahawks (Seahawks 9/Patriots 11) Give 3.0 points to the team that has recorded the most sacks. Seahawks (Seahawks 47/Patriots 35) Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewer offensive pass attempts. Seahawks (Seahawks 481/Patriots 502) Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year. Seahawks (Seahawks 42.2/Patriots 40.6) Give 1.5 points to the team with the best offensive yards-per-carry average. Patriots (Patriots 4.4/Seahawks 4.1) Give 1.0 points to the team with the better completion percentage. Patriots (Patriots 71.9%/Seahawks 67.6%)
And, the "verdict"....is:
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Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074:
Seahawks 34.5Patriots 21Had to put the total on a separate page as it was over 4,000 characters.
Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074:
Give 10 points to a team if they have won a Super Bowl in the last three seasons. N/A Give 8.0 points to either team if their opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history. N/A Give 8.0 points to the team that has given up the fewer amount of defensive rushes. Patriots (Patriots 411 to 418 for Seahawks) Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs. Patriots (Patriots 17-3/Seahawks 16-3) Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes on the season. Seahawks (Seahawks 507/Patriots 494) Give 5.0 points to the team with the better defensive yards-per-carry average. Seahawks (Seahawks 3.7/Patriots 4.2) Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kickoff-punt touchdown returns. N/A (Both had 3 total, 1 kickoff and 2 punt TD returns each) Give 4.0 points to the team who performed better against the point spread in the regular season. Seahawks (Seahawks 12-5/Patriots 11-6) Give 4.0 points to the team that has the better net penalty yards number. Seattle (Seahawks+120/Patriots -64) Give 3.5 points to the team that has the greater yards per pass attempt. Patriots (Patriots 8.9/Seahawks 8.4) Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed up the fewest points on the season. Seahawks (Seahawks 292/Patriots 320) Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest amount of rushing touchdowns. Seahawks (Seahawks 9/Patriots 11) Give 3.0 points to the team that has recorded the most sacks. Seahawks (Seahawks 47/Patriots 35) Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewer offensive pass attempts. Seahawks (Seahawks 481/Patriots 502) Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year. Seahawks (Seahawks 42.2/Patriots 40.6) Give 1.5 points to the team with the best offensive yards-per-carry average. Patriots (Patriots 4.4/Seahawks 4.1) Give 1.0 points to the team with the better completion percentage. Patriots (Patriots 71.9%/Seahawks 67.6%)
As far as the SU W/L record goes, I’m not sure the patriots should get the points there. Yes they have one more win but that’s because they had to play one more playoff game. Seattle did not because they earned the 1 seed. To me it makes more sense to have that be an N/A. Go Hawks
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As far as the SU W/L record goes, I’m not sure the patriots should get the points there. Yes they have one more win but that’s because they had to play one more playoff game. Seattle did not because they earned the 1 seed. To me it makes more sense to have that be an N/A. Go Hawks
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