Pitt +3.5 and Why

Frustrating night with SF yesterday - moved on let's look at some numbers:

-3    Balt  1 28 11 30 10 16   

       Pitt   26 22 12 29 17 14

Balt opens up as a 3 pt fav. currently 3.5     (madduxsports.com)   .   Balt is better in Rushing off 1 vs 26;  Rushing Def 11 vs 12;  Sagarin rank 10 vs 17; While Pitt is better in passing off at 22 vs 28; passing def 29 vs 30; and slightly better at sched strength at 14 vs 16.    

What does it all mean - nothing until you compare it to other games with similar opening lines and similar scenarios.    The other thing I look at is the composite of the def - in this case both teams have a Def total composite of 41.    When you look deeper into the numbers - when the composite is tied - the home team often takes it straight up.   We have had a that a few times with this scenario  Dallas and Gby, Gby won it in ot I believe.    More recent Carolina vs No   NO won it 17/20.     

It's hard to quantify DK being out for Pitt and Lamarr having missed last week and playing this week.      My plays tonight:

1.  Pitt    +3.5   

2.  Yes- Overtime small small play   7.97 to 1  

Good luck all

Same side bud , GL to us 

@Rolexsports

 Back at ya homeboy!!!!

@TheBuddah

 Were you under the intoxication of buddah while making this play?

@CusDAmato1

 lol - something else:)    Bol bud.

Here we again play Baltimore. 

@ItsGood

 no problem - congrats on your pick yesterday.

@TheBuddah

 Lol GL!

I saw a candle.. 

Must have been Buddah Light 

@Poidisb

 lol and I became enlightened:)

GL on your play Happy New Year let's do this  @TheBuddah 

Bol Buddy

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac and back at ya

@umgmu

 Thanks bud and back at ya 

Thebuddah on buddah- with a little flickering flame ?? - oh yeah !!!!!!    

Got em again home boy , good night 

@Rolexsports

 Yes we did !!!!’n