What is very interesting this week that does happen to go right along with these plays is that the favorites have been covering and now I see guys on you tube who are good cappers bringing this up and saying we need to back favorites more.
All my plays using regression are on the dogs including my other system.
Why do you think when favorites are covering it goes back to the dogs ? REGRESSION people.
It is more then likely coming, only a matter of when.
This is similar to what I call switch games. Just when you think you have it all figure-out that it is time to back the favorites just because they have been covering, Boom it goes the other way.
Seen this many times in my days.
Even Colin Cowherd said this and you know if he said it the dogs are primed and ready to roll.
2
What is very interesting this week that does happen to go right along with these plays is that the favorites have been covering and now I see guys on you tube who are good cappers bringing this up and saying we need to back favorites more.
All my plays using regression are on the dogs including my other system.
Why do you think when favorites are covering it goes back to the dogs ? REGRESSION people.
It is more then likely coming, only a matter of when.
This is similar to what I call switch games. Just when you think you have it all figure-out that it is time to back the favorites just because they have been covering, Boom it goes the other way.
Seen this many times in my days.
Even Colin Cowherd said this and you know if he said it the dogs are primed and ready to roll.
I've talked about this before, what does happen is things that have happened in the first half of the season change in the 2cd half and as crazy as that seems things do change the very first week of the 2cd half of the season.
Teams that are covering at a high rate 8-0 or 7-1 even 6-2 won't do as well the 2cd half and teams 0-8 or 1-7 even 2-6 will do better.
There are no teams 8-0 or 7-1 or 0-8 ,1-7 unfortunately. But a number of teams 6-2 or 2-6.
Pats, Colts 6-2......Lions, Rams, Seahawks 5-2
Saints, Titans 2-6 ...... Raiders 2-5
The thing is with a 17 game schedule we don't have any equal number of weeks to get when the 2cd half occurs. Could be after 8 games with 9 in 2cd half or 9 games 1st half with 8 2cd half.
Could be this week or next week. And we have teams off the bye who are not yet into their 8th game.
3 of PR II BF plays involve teams could be in the 2cd half, Pats, Saints Titans.
Regression is very likely coming soon be careful what you wish for, things this week may not be as easy as they look..........
1
Now let's add this.............
I've talked about this before, what does happen is things that have happened in the first half of the season change in the 2cd half and as crazy as that seems things do change the very first week of the 2cd half of the season.
Teams that are covering at a high rate 8-0 or 7-1 even 6-2 won't do as well the 2cd half and teams 0-8 or 1-7 even 2-6 will do better.
There are no teams 8-0 or 7-1 or 0-8 ,1-7 unfortunately. But a number of teams 6-2 or 2-6.
Pats, Colts 6-2......Lions, Rams, Seahawks 5-2
Saints, Titans 2-6 ...... Raiders 2-5
The thing is with a 17 game schedule we don't have any equal number of weeks to get when the 2cd half occurs. Could be after 8 games with 9 in 2cd half or 9 games 1st half with 8 2cd half.
Could be this week or next week. And we have teams off the bye who are not yet into their 8th game.
3 of PR II BF plays involve teams could be in the 2cd half, Pats, Saints Titans.
Regression is very likely coming soon be careful what you wish for, things this week may not be as easy as they look..........
Power Ratings II Bounce factor Plays ..........3-1 last week. this is a 3 game method, we back or fade teams for 3 games if we don't win ATS. The first week does have years that doesn't do well but can have years were most teams do win ATS in the first week. Of 6 teams this year 4 won ATS first week. We have 2 fade teams and 3 play on teams this week. Fades ........... KC and Pats Play on teams ........... Vikings, Saints and Titans. Titans are in the 2cd week, the other teams in the first week.
Top consensus teams at this point are Chargers (1) and Lions (2), Rams are #5. I regularly fade top-five consensus picks from the Westgate competition, they have years of poor results, so I'll wait to see whether these three are listed in the Westgate top five also, but Vikings, Saints and Titans are likely to produce closer games than expected.
0
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Power Ratings II Bounce factor Plays ..........3-1 last week. this is a 3 game method, we back or fade teams for 3 games if we don't win ATS. The first week does have years that doesn't do well but can have years were most teams do win ATS in the first week. Of 6 teams this year 4 won ATS first week. We have 2 fade teams and 3 play on teams this week. Fades ........... KC and Pats Play on teams ........... Vikings, Saints and Titans. Titans are in the 2cd week, the other teams in the first week.
Top consensus teams at this point are Chargers (1) and Lions (2), Rams are #5. I regularly fade top-five consensus picks from the Westgate competition, they have years of poor results, so I'll wait to see whether these three are listed in the Westgate top five also, but Vikings, Saints and Titans are likely to produce closer games than expected.
Quote Originally Posted by Erik48: is chief bills. The Bator rule in effect? No but very close 2 pts away................. But holding opponents to 9 pts or less back to back games has a losing ATS record the next game. This according to what I saw on you tube. KC held opps to 7 or less back to back, not a team to back. Bills or pass.
Here's a query tailored to the KC-BUF matchup. Since KC is only a small Away Favorite, I chose to query with a relevant pointspread band to reflect the close relative strengths of the teams and avoid polluting my query results with big Away Favorites.
A and -4.2 < line < 3.2 and po:points < 7.5 and ppo:points < 7.5
SU: 19-23 (1.5,45.2%)
ATS: 18-24 (1.1,42.9%)
Away teams of -4 to +3 that held their previous two opponents to 7 points or less only cover 42.9% of their next games. The average ATS margin is actually 1.1 points.
That only gives a slight edge to BUF; it's not strong enough for me to take action based on this query alone, but it does provide a bit of support for TC's pick.
Good luck everybody.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Quote Originally Posted by Erik48: is chief bills. The Bator rule in effect? No but very close 2 pts away................. But holding opponents to 9 pts or less back to back games has a losing ATS record the next game. This according to what I saw on you tube. KC held opps to 7 or less back to back, not a team to back. Bills or pass.
Here's a query tailored to the KC-BUF matchup. Since KC is only a small Away Favorite, I chose to query with a relevant pointspread band to reflect the close relative strengths of the teams and avoid polluting my query results with big Away Favorites.
A and -4.2 < line < 3.2 and po:points < 7.5 and ppo:points < 7.5
SU: 19-23 (1.5,45.2%)
ATS: 18-24 (1.1,42.9%)
Away teams of -4 to +3 that held their previous two opponents to 7 points or less only cover 42.9% of their next games. The average ATS margin is actually 1.1 points.
That only gives a slight edge to BUF; it's not strong enough for me to take action based on this query alone, but it does provide a bit of support for TC's pick.
Goodness. You n Claw are touting Tenn and the aints this week…. I’m tailing…. Because I respect your guys processes…. Saints qb sucks… their coach looks like he just graduated high school…. And I played them last week and they had 4 turnovers at home…. And it was over early… but that was last week… I’m 99% joking… I’m tailing … as I actually do respect your guys processes. ‘So let it be written…. So let it be done.’…..
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@DogbiteWilliams
Goodness. You n Claw are touting Tenn and the aints this week…. I’m tailing…. Because I respect your guys processes…. Saints qb sucks… their coach looks like he just graduated high school…. And I played them last week and they had 4 turnovers at home…. And it was over early… but that was last week… I’m 99% joking… I’m tailing … as I actually do respect your guys processes. ‘So let it be written…. So let it be done.’…..
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Power Ratings II Bounce factor Plays ..........3-1 last week. this is a 3 game method, we back or fade teams for 3 games if we don't win ATS. The first week does have years that doesn't do well but can have years were most teams do win ATS in the first week. Of 6 teams this year 4 won ATS first week. We have 2 fade teams and 3 play on teams this week. Fades ........... KC and Pats Play on teams ........... Vikings, Saints and Titans. Titans are in the 2cd week, the other teams in the first week. Top consensus teams at this point are Chargers (1) and Lions (2), Rams are #5. I regularly fade top-five consensus picks from the Westgate competition, they have years of poor results, so I'll wait to see whether these three are listed in the Westgate top five also, but Vikings, Saints and Titans are likely to produce closer games than expected.
Good stuff........likely they are taking the most obvious plays only watching games on TV..........
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Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Power Ratings II Bounce factor Plays ..........3-1 last week. this is a 3 game method, we back or fade teams for 3 games if we don't win ATS. The first week does have years that doesn't do well but can have years were most teams do win ATS in the first week. Of 6 teams this year 4 won ATS first week. We have 2 fade teams and 3 play on teams this week. Fades ........... KC and Pats Play on teams ........... Vikings, Saints and Titans. Titans are in the 2cd week, the other teams in the first week. Top consensus teams at this point are Chargers (1) and Lions (2), Rams are #5. I regularly fade top-five consensus picks from the Westgate competition, they have years of poor results, so I'll wait to see whether these three are listed in the Westgate top five also, but Vikings, Saints and Titans are likely to produce closer games than expected.
Good stuff........likely they are taking the most obvious plays only watching games on TV..........
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Quote Originally Posted by Erik48: is chief bills. The Bator rule in effect? No but very close 2 pts away................. But holding opponents to 9 pts or less back to back games has a losing ATS record the next game. This according to what I saw on you tube. KC held opps to 7 or less back to back, not a team to back. Bills or pass. Here's a query tailored to the KC-BUF matchup. Since KC is only a small Away Favorite, I chose to query with a relevant pointspread band to reflect the close relative strengths of the teams and avoid polluting my query results with big Away Favorites. A and -4.2 < line < 3.2 and po:points < 7.5 and ppo:points < 7.5 SU: 19-23 (1.5,45.2%) ATS: 18-24 (1.1,42.9%) Away teams of -4 to +3 that held their previous two opponents to 7 points or less only cover 42.9% of their next games. The average ATS margin is actually 1.1 points. That only gives a slight edge to BUF; it's not strong enough for me to take action based on this query alone, but it does provide a bit of support for TC's pick. Good luck everybody.
Thanks, can always count on the dog to come through in the clutch .............
But the other thing to consider is not this info alone but all the info combined, each piece supports the Bills.
It has to be Bills or pass ...........
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Quote Originally Posted by Erik48: is chief bills. The Bator rule in effect? No but very close 2 pts away................. But holding opponents to 9 pts or less back to back games has a losing ATS record the next game. This according to what I saw on you tube. KC held opps to 7 or less back to back, not a team to back. Bills or pass. Here's a query tailored to the KC-BUF matchup. Since KC is only a small Away Favorite, I chose to query with a relevant pointspread band to reflect the close relative strengths of the teams and avoid polluting my query results with big Away Favorites. A and -4.2 < line < 3.2 and po:points < 7.5 and ppo:points < 7.5 SU: 19-23 (1.5,45.2%) ATS: 18-24 (1.1,42.9%) Away teams of -4 to +3 that held their previous two opponents to 7 points or less only cover 42.9% of their next games. The average ATS margin is actually 1.1 points. That only gives a slight edge to BUF; it's not strong enough for me to take action based on this query alone, but it does provide a bit of support for TC's pick. Good luck everybody.
Thanks, can always count on the dog to come through in the clutch .............
But the other thing to consider is not this info alone but all the info combined, each piece supports the Bills.
@DogbiteWilliams Goodness. You n Claw are touting Tenn and the aints this week…. I’m tailing…. Because I respect your guys processes…. Saints qb sucks… their coach looks like he just graduated high school…. And I played them last week and they had 4 turnovers at home…. And it was over early… but that was last week… I’m 99% joking… I’m tailing … as I actually do respect your guys processes. ‘So let it be written…. So let it be done.’…..
0
Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
@DogbiteWilliams Goodness. You n Claw are touting Tenn and the aints this week…. I’m tailing…. Because I respect your guys processes…. Saints qb sucks… their coach looks like he just graduated high school…. And I played them last week and they had 4 turnovers at home…. And it was over early… but that was last week… I’m 99% joking… I’m tailing … as I actually do respect your guys processes. ‘So let it be written…. So let it be done.’…..
Favorites last week went 11-2 ATS that is the best record for favorites since 1985, 40 years ago.
And they covered by 7 pts a game.
Let us remember the principal of regression, regression follows extreme performances.
How can we have a more extreme performance ?
Dogs are coming, and when they come it will most likely be by the boatloads. Possible it could be next week but it could be this week. It should be coming soon .
Very possible many will get knocked out of survivor this week riding these big favorites.
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Heard this on you tube this morning.
Favorites last week went 11-2 ATS that is the best record for favorites since 1985, 40 years ago.
And they covered by 7 pts a game.
Let us remember the principal of regression, regression follows extreme performances.
How can we have a more extreme performance ?
Dogs are coming, and when they come it will most likely be by the boatloads. Possible it could be next week but it could be this week. It should be coming soon .
Very possible many will get knocked out of survivor this week riding these big favorites.
Are the Chargers that much better then those other teams ?
That's crazy talk !!!
Again because these favorites are off an extreme performance the books jack the lines big time.
This is another indicator that regression is coming as the books know the public is going to overreact to all these favorites winning and beating the spread by a good amount.
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Now, think about this ........
Titans at home , +5.5 to the Rams
+6 to the Colts
+6.5 to the Pats just 2 games ago
Now +9.5 VS Chargers.
Are the Chargers that much better then those other teams ?
That's crazy talk !!!
Again because these favorites are off an extreme performance the books jack the lines big time.
This is another indicator that regression is coming as the books know the public is going to overreact to all these favorites winning and beating the spread by a good amount.
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