NFL WEEK 9 ...........................2025

season--- 19-14, won 2.34 units

on a 10-2 run.

Pts Per Plays Margin as of nov 1st..................

1 Colts .272

2 Seahawks. 179

3 Rams .160

4 Li9ns .144

5 Packers .114

6 Pats .110

7 Bills .109

8 KC .101

9 Denver .098

10 Pitt .090

11Texans .087

12 Eagles .085

13 Bucs .042

Here's  The Deal ..................2008 -2024, as of Nov 1st each year

12 of 17 teams won the SB were in top 5.

2 teams won in surprise teams from WC round era, 2011 Gmen and 2012 Ravens.

So 12 of 15 years.

KC in 2023 was 7th, Denver 2015 was 6th but a defensive monster not well balanced.

And Eagles last year who did not start playing well untill all their injuried players return VS Giants like week 5 or 6.

So if you want to back a Team to win SB better off taking a top 5 team above.

15 teams to make the conference finals not ranked in the top 10 in 17 years. 22% chance.

But 4 teams came in the 2 covid years 2020 & 2021 and 4 teams came in the surprise teams from the WC round era.

So 7 teams in 10 years 17.5% chance if not in the top 10 by nov 1st.

But 7 of the 10 years 1 team not in the top 10 did make the conference  finals. 

Let's dig deeper .................

Only 6 teams made the conference  finals in 17 years rated below .025.

And 3 of those 6 came in the 2 covid years with no fans in the stands and players opting out.

So we have 3 teams rated .025 or below mak8ng the conference  finals in 15 years .

If you want a team not in the top 10 then you have 3 choices since 1 team does make it to at least the conference finals in 7 of 10 years, Texans, Eagles or Bucs

Then you could have hedge possibilities.

Now, here's the real Deal .................

Teams in conference finals better by .075 as of Nov 1st are 17-10-1 ATS (62.5%).

But remember  I did talk about teams over .200 not being good plays in the playoffs.

Of the 10 ATS losses 6 of those came at the hands of backing a team .200 or better.

That makes it a sizzling 17-4-1 ATS. 

Colts at .272 are the highest ranking team in those 17 years.

Incredible yes but not a team I want to back come playoff time.

Teams .200 or above playing a team below .200 are 1-6 ATS in c9nference finals.

one last thing.............

All 34 teams to make the SB were above .030.

Even the teams in surprise teams from WC round era.

So taking a low rated team at this point in the season is suicidal, just say no !!!

Actually the record would be 16-4-1 ATS as we need to eliminate the 1 teams win that was over .200 as we don't want to back these teams.

CLAW 

Tremendous run. Hard work always pays off

My other system ...........6-4

Saints +14.5 (-115) over Rams--- .58 units to win .5 units

Rams a fade with the method.

Interesting  is Saints are a Power Rating BF play on team this week.............

Thanks..................

Good stuff.  Thanks for the time, effort and knowledge.

@theclaw

 Nice run

Does rookie QB for saints matter or just a rams fade either way?

Thank You Claw for always spreading the knowledge

@dubz4dummyz

 Omg.  The saints … it is what it is… I trust the process… played em last week… gsme was over quick.   4 turnovers.  They were awful…. Will dip one more time.