I saw this on you tube and thought it was very interesting.......... it's crazy actually.
Teams off a shut-out game in which they gave up less then a 100 yards total offense, only happens about once a year.
16-1-1 ATS in their next game.
Applies to KC this week. Doubt I bet only because of this there is also a trend favors Wash.
But thought it was crazy good . Will definitely be paying attention to this trend though.
Interesting angle. The Chiefs play at Bills next week, but I doubt they will overlook the Skins because they are only 4-3. I myself like the Skins but will probably stay away for the MNF game. Good luck Claw, & thanks for sharing your info.
This is another query that is fairly easy because the SDQL (Sports Data Query Language) is just what you'd guess:
po:points = 0 and po:TY < 100
ATS: 22-8-1 (2.8,73.3%)
Teams that shut out their Previous Opponents and held them to less than 100 Total Yards are 22-8-1 ATS in the next game.
While that looks pretty solid for KC, I usually prefer an average ATS edge of 3+points. 2.8 is pretty close, but the bigger problem is the huge point spread. When "and line < -10.2" is added, the ATS falls to just 1-1 - a completely worthless sample size.
Building on Comment #28, teams that lay exactly 10 points are 1-1 ATS, so:
po:points = 0 and po:TY < 100 and line > -9.7
ATS: 20-6-1 (3.3,76.9%)
As long as you don't have to lay 10+ points, things look pretty rosy. However, there has only been one single play since the 2017 season - so don't hold your breath.
I'd assume they are talking about the past 18 games only. If that is true then only 6-7 ATS prior to those past 18 games...........
Bounce Factor Play .............5-1
Ravens -2.5 (-115) over Bears --- 1.15 units
Ravens 1st half -.5 (-112) --- .56 units
Bears also a PR BF fade ..........
I did see Ravens -1.5 and -2 now it looks like it could go back to 3 so grab it now
Pending Play .........
Packers -3 (-115) over Steelers ---- 1.15 units
I see this at -2.5 now
Was looking at SOS and wow there are a couple teams off-the-charts ...............
Bills SOS -6.9
Pats SOS -5.6
Since they play in the same division the schedules will be pretty similar.
There has been alot of talk about Drake playing so well and Pats.
Here is who they played ......
Dolphins 1-6
Saints 1-6
Titans 1-6
Raiders they lost.
Bills 4-2 but with the weakest SOS in league
Steelers they lost
Panthers 4-3, a winning record but -1 point margin and -1.9 SOS which is weakest in NFC
Bills have played .........
Jets 0-7
Dolphins 1-6
Saints 1-6
Ravens 1-5
Falcons 3-3........-1.7 point margin SOS .1
Pats 5-2 but 2cd weakest SOS in league
Could you get a weaker group of teams ????
Ravens better then that 1-5 with Lamar but obviously this is not the same team as in past years and Ravens should of beaten Bills.
We have 4 plays on my Power Ratings Bounce Factor ............
This tells us when a teams play on the field is no longer sustainable .
2 fades and 2 teams to back.
Back ...... Dolphins and Titans
Fade ........ Bears and Panthers
Now, this is the first game of the fade or team to back of 3 games.
The first game in some years can do very well but other years does not do well so a little bit inconsistent.
The 2cd and 3rd games are much better to use.
But I will take this into consideration based on other info like Ravens being a BF play on team.
Public is all over Falcons so possible good spot for Dolphins.
And guys I follow on you tube have said Dolphins are "NOT BETABLE".
1 of those guys is pretty damn square so when you see this that is telling us the Dolphins have hit rock-bottom as does the the PR BF.
I'D think Bills could Roll the Panthers here as a very mediocre team like the Panthers rarely can get get to the level of play needed to become a fade.
With Bills playing a weak SOS the Panthers are no prize of a team so I think more likely Bills get the win and cover.
Colts do have a tough schedule coming up after Titans, going to Steelers next week, then Falcons who aren't that tough but after that they get some good teams so maybe they relax a bit , don't come in as focused as they should be and with Titans new coach, they did not get the Bounce VS Pats last week just maybe it comes a week later with Varbel wanting to punish Titans
I'll pass this week but we'll see how these 4 teams make-out.
There is a couple of guys I follow on you tube who were on Chargers past 2 weeks before the Thursday night game and they went 0-2 ATS.
Both pretty good cappers. Then going into Thursday night they both said Chargers defense is terrible , they can't protect QB and as much as we thought this team was a good team they are not.
Bingo....... switch game.
As I call these type games when guys switch on a team they lost on.
Again tells us the team has hit the bottom.
These guys have been wrong almost every time they've done this over the past 3 years I followed them.
I wanted to post this before the game but forgot.
Now here is what I find very interesting about them giving up on Chargers, can't make this up.
The Chargers dominated so throughly that winning 37-10 they did that without winning the TO battle which I looked up teams winning by 25 pts or more have not found one yet that won by 25 without winning the TO battle.
TO's were even. 1-1 I think.
According to PR II they should of won by 28.14 pts.
Chargers dominated this game completely, winning the 1st downs like 29-12, outgaind Vikes by over 250 yards, held Wentz to a pathetic 3.6 yards per pass attempt and won both ave per play and ave per pass by a big amount then on top of that pounded Vikes in the run game 207-44
That is pretty much the domination needed to win by over 25 pts without winning TO battle at least according to PR II.
All this from a team with a bad defense and a line can't protect the QB.
Watch for these switch games.
I'll tell you one thing from the eye test, the Packers are a seriously fcked up team..never liked LaFlore for coaching decisions, Love looks like he's on valium 90% of the time, the D is beatable..the receivers look like a 7/11 store for dinner as far as who you can trust..one day this team is going to get their ass kicked by a under dog at home, maybe Chicago or Minn and it'll cost them the division...and I'd take Philly/Det/LAR/SF vs them in a playoff game on their field..
GL today!
By the way ........PR II when a team should win the game by 4 pts or more based on each teams play on the field did go 25-0 past 2 weeks.
That brings the record on year when a team should of won by 4 pts or more to 81-7.
When a team should win by under 4 pts did go 4-0 past 2 weeks and now is 10-9 on the year.
Yes I agree they don't look good by the eye test...............
But we must remember the ole Vegas adage.............. no team is as good as they look when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing.
Public is pretty big on Steelers here because of how Packers look.
Public did well last week, best week of the season for them so now with extra money they coming out to play.
If Packers don't get it done here I'll have to give up on them but then I'll be a..........switch game victim myself .......
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