NFL WEEK 3 .............................2025

Crazy info on the Bills.........

Incredible the Bills were a Bator method fade early in the season for 3 straight years .

And even more incredible one of the games to qualify for a fade came in week 2 in each of the 3 years.

Now look, once again in week 2 the Bills produce a 30-10 game qualifying for the first game of yet another Bator fade depending on the results of tonight's game.

So will they do it again making it 4 straight years of Bator fade involving a week 2 ?

How is that possible ?

That's quite the coincidence. 

But wait, there's more .......going back the previous year the Bills also qualified for a Bator fade in week 2 winning 35-0 but they did not complete the fade with game 3 or with game 1.

That's 5 straight years Bills have qualified for a Bator fade in week 2.

The 3 times they did qualifying they were 1-2 ATS the next week.

Crazy they did play the Dolphins in 2 of those 3 games going 1-1 ATS. I don't think you apply the method when playing a division foe.

Last season the Ravens rolled the Bills in the Bator fade spot 35-10.

If the Bills do it again next week they play the lowly Saints.

If Seahawks roll the Saints this week what will the spread be ?

That will be one of those games you close your eyes and play the Saints. You have to do it 

Well, Bills didn't get the Bator fade.

We'll see if they do it again in week 2 next year. But I doubt they will.

I did have Bills in survivor and was sweating it out with Dolphins down 7 and driving with like 4 minutes left.

All I could see was a TD and 2 pt conversion to try and win in regulation with little time left on the clock.

Bills needed a TO and got it.

I saw on you tube that teams -4 or better have won every game SU so many still alive in survivor.

I'd  expect that to change soon.

Packers -7.5 (-105) over Browns --- 1.05 units

Looks like alot of sharps on Browns here understandable I suppose but I will keep riding this Packers team.

I was hoping to see this fall to -7 although I thought it likely wasn't  going to but you never know.

Maybe it still could right before game time. 

GL claw 

Claw, surprising you of all people not trusting process...randomness always exists in life...even in baseball with 162 points of life, some weird ass crap is happening this year to season win totals...but dogs always will come in the NFL because the lines and the money move right in the long run...like this week, watch out NO, Cleveland, NYG all may do better than cover...peace my brother

@Scottyy411

 Chiefs are taking the year off.   Rest.    And a shit ton of money in the bank.   Claw… you really think Pitt goes 0-3 to start season ats.    I was thinking all they needed was a qb…. But they may have had to sell their soul to get Rodgers…. Their defense has to be near league worst for points so far.     

C 

I understand  what you are saying.............

However, I am playing my method top 3 largest performers week 1 with best bets being twam off a 10 win season. 

it is the Packers.

These teams do well ATS weeks 2 through end of season .

This is not a big regression  spot with methods I use. Mostly a trend spot and my methods beat these trend spots all the time but they do beat my methods also.

I think it is very possible the sharps will be correct that Browns play a close game but Packers will still find a way to get the close cover. May not be by alot. And it might take till later in the 4th but I think this team gets it done based on my method 

Yea I hear you ..........

I think coach Tomlin has never had a losing season with Steelers. But this team is not good. 

I suspect this will be his 1st losing season. 

Boy oh boy Pats with INT  down at the 5 yard line to end the half and now  a fumble going into the end zone at like the 1 yard line just happened as I was writing this.

That will be tough to overcome for sure.

0-1, lost 1.1 units

Crazy game. Just too crazy. I thought Packers would get a score late after Browns got their 1st score and get the cover much like I thought it could go.

My other possible plays went 4-2 on top of going 3-0 last week.

But unfortunately  I didn't  take any action.

With 1 game  the Lions at +6 remaining for tonight.

Next week starts my Bounce Factor if we have a team that qualifies. I think at least 1 should but haven't gone over things yet.

Next week also starts my other system I did talk about last season. It did go 19-13, (59%).

I may post those plays this season. The plays I made that I did not take action  did come from this method.

They can do well early as they have this year  but it is better long term to wait a few weeks.

I don't like coming in off strong records as may not be sustainable. Best to come in off 2 losing weeks then it has a strong record.

Last season I don't think it had 2 losing weeks in a row. It did have 2 weeks of a losing record and a .500 record which is a losing record over 2 weeks.

The results the next weeks was very good. 

I'll look all this up and post it later in week once I run all the numbers for any plays this weekend.

Well my other system did it again last night on the Lions.

Goes to 5-2 ATS this week. It was 2-0 last week so 7-2 over past 2 weeks . I did have another play I could of taken action but was not this method.

Which did win as well.

I do put my near plays in the king of covers contest along with my actual plays so I can check the results comparable to my plays only that I post.

As of now 9-5 ATs with forgetting to put in Packers over Wash as I was waiting for line -3.5 to drop to 3 which it was at some books and then forgot later to put it in

Happens to me a few times every year. Sometimes I make the pick regardless of line so I don't forget but then occasionally  I will loss when had i waited could of won or pushed. 

Damned if I do or damned if I don't.

I need to learn if AI has a beeper or something will sound on my phone 1 hour before game as a reminder.

Anyone have any advice on something like this ?

Appreciate if you do.

PR II had Lions winning big last night by 18.75 pts.

PR I which is pass heavy would have been less as Lamar was strong with a 148.2 QB Passer Rating to Goff 103.6.

PR II being balance oriented counting run game more as Lions pounded Ravens in the run game.

Usually  a strength of the Ravens.

But Lamar was sacked 7 times, ouch for 55 yards of losses.

Takes away from that high QBPR as sacks are not included just pure passing even though sacks are apart of passing.

Goff was not sacked.

Lamar 10.7 ave per pass not counting sacks VS Goff 7.2 but when we add sacks Goff had the better ave per pass. A big contributor to the Lions win.

Interesting these Ravens have been this year.

Lamar with an pretty incredible 141.8 QBPR.

12% TD%, 1st in league 

0% INT, 1st or tied for 1st.

9.6 ave per pass attempt.  9 or better is historically  great.

13.4 yds per catch, 1st in the league

But horrendously  high sack rate of 13.79%, wowsa. 

I believe The 9.6 is after sacks so imagine before sacks.

Ravens 2cd in points per plays margin .268.

Offensively on fire in points per plays .707 1st place well ahead of 2cd place.

defensive. 444  a dreadful 23rd.

to put it in perspective the 2007 Pats one of the highest scoring teams all time were .524 but that is sustaining over the full year.

But we can see Lamar's incredible play to this point has been a very big part of Ravens .707 points per plays.

Ravens are not going to sustain this level of play (.707) nor will Lamar (141.8)

Based on how they are playing at present, How the hell are Ravens 1-2 ?

Yes that loss to the Bills for sure was to much  and should of, could of been a win. No doubt.

Something with these Ravens does not add up.

So I took a deeper dive into them.

Here's what I think is going on ...............

Now keep in mind it is very early things are going to chance  and possibly by alot.

Tailed you on your futures Gmen bet. Optimistic about the QB change?

Ravens plays run rank tied for 31st and 30th with Dolphins.

If we look at their ave drive......

Time 2:19, 32cd in league

Plays run 4.65  , 31st

Yds 29.3, 19th

But pts scored is 3.26 good for 3rd.

How are they scoring all these pts ? When they are this pathetic per drive ?

To put this in perspective.....look at Colts

Time 3:50, 1st

Plays 7.77, 1st

Yds 48.3, 1st

Pts 3.69 , 1st

Dawfs the Ravens per drive except pts.

Ravens total yards of 992  but defense 1245. They getting outgained by a decent amount.

Rushing yds 368 to 447 usually  a Ravens strength.

How are The Ravens doing it ?

TO's, or punt/kick returns ?

Nope, only 2 TO's created but 1 was returned for 61 yards, the other 63 yards but no TD's.

That certainly helps somewhat but only 2 TO's.

No TD's on punts or kickoffs.  They do have good ave per returns on both but nothing excepectional. I didn't  see the longest returns though  could be some long ones.

I think what is going on is when the Ravens move the ball they score but when they don't score they don't move the ball at all.

Maybe that very high sack rate plays heavy into this.

Looks like alot of 3 and outs or 1 first down and 3 and out.

They are not consistent with moving the ball so maybe not helping the defense at all  to rest and gain field position.

Maybe that is part of the reason the defense don't look so good at this time.

This reminds me of 1990 Bills who lost to Giants in the SB when at the time Giants set the record for time of possesion in a SB because Bills had the same issue from what I read after that SB.

I don't know if Ravens will sustain this all season I kind of doubt it if I had to guess but something to watch for in the future.

Does anyone have teams and how many 3 and outs ?

Or 1 first down and 3 and out if there even is such records kept ?

Tush I never made any futures on the Giants..

You must either have me confused with someone else or misunderstood my post.

Sorry about that if my any of my post confused you.

Ah it must’ve been my bad. Thanks for all that you do for this forum. 

@DogbiteWilliams

 Appreciate the stats

@poppyg

You're welcome.