NFL WEEK 3 .............................2025

Season --- 3-5, lost 2.6 units

I have some plays I could take action on but probably  won't. 

Lions +6 over Ravens

Pats +1.5 (-115) over Steelers

Colts -3 (-120) over Titans

Falcons -4.5 over Panthers

Colts a top 3 performer week look like they could become one of the bigger surprise stories in which case this would be another good indicator to back the Colts on top of the other indicator I am using.

Ravens play KC next week. Maybe they will get caught looking ahead with the idea they could really put this KC team in a hard spot with a win.

Meanwhile KC plays the Giants with Russ W. Off a very big game. Will they be looking ahead with the idea they could be 1-3 with a loss ?

But they can't  afford to lose to the Giants then play the Ravens.

Giants in a sandwich spot, should be an interesting game for sure KC has to bring a big game they can't risk another loss.

Anyone taking Giants + the points ?

@theclaw

 BOL this week 

I look at KC and my 1st thought is the number of one score games they play. A TD fav on the road makes me pause although many will say there is no way they lose again especially to the Giants. The flip side is the Chiefs are missing weapons and don't seem to be the juggernaut of a few years ago. I'm undecided but neither team makes me feel warm and fuzzy.

Exactly ................

Chargers laid a beat-down on the Raiders last night. Far more dominate then the final score would suggest.

Herbert beat Geno in QB Passer rating by a whopping 85 pts.

Geno 37 QBPR. he was up to his old tricks with 3 INT's which I talked about and on top of that he flat-out just played extremely poor.

Maybe it had alot to do with Chargers defense who did hold Mahomes to well below ave QBPR. 

Granted with limited weapons  but still.

2cd year with coach Harbaugh this team looks pretty solid at this point. 

Interesting Mahomes is no Brady, some of Brady's years he had no-name receivers but still did well offensively. When those recievers moved on they did not do much on their new teams.

GL 

According to PR II Chargers should of won by 23.61 Pts. Not 11 pts.

PR I would be even a larger margin because of the complete dominate passing of Chargers. As PR I is more pass heavy while PR II is more about balance.

  All the best this week Claw

Tough two weeks Claw, thankfully you have kept your plays manageable. Haven't played an NFL season where the faves were ahead weeks 1 and 2. I'll have to look at last season for comparison since I didn't play that year but as far as back as 15 years betting NFL I don't recall this happening it's always the dog leading the week 10-6, 11-5 ats sometimes 9-7. this is new to me.. 

Better luck this week Claw 

Hey @theclaw

-->Solid plays with what you're thinking, these are from one of the models I use, an app.

Biggest variance from this group seems to be the Steelers game. Opposite of what you are thinking though.

What do you think of the rest?

Indianapolis 19 @ Tennessee 21

• BTA Sports Line: TEN -2.18 | Vegas: TEN +3.5

• BTA Total Points: 40.85 | Vegas O/U: 43.5

Atlanta 18 @ Carolina 21

• BTA Sports Line: CAR -2.89 | Vegas: CAR +5.0

• BTA Total Points: 39.11 | Vegas O/U: 43.5

Pittsburgh 25 @ New England 17

• BTA Sports Line: NE +8.25 | Vegas: NE +1.5

• BTA Total Points: 43.30 | Vegas O/U: 44.5

@theclaw

Early in the season but gotta think this is a must win for kc. Loss and 0 and 3 with games against Ravens, Bills, Lions...even lowly Raiders play them tough