NFL Week 16 Plays

4* DOLPHINS +4 over Bengals - I don't particularly like betting a game where both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, but I can't for the life of me fathom why Cincinnati is favored here. Miami has benched Tua Tagovailoa and rookie Quinn Ewers gets his first start. He's the one unknown element in this game. The thing is though, the Dolphins don't need him to win the game, but just to play clean football, something that Tagovailoa hasn't been able to do (league leading 15 interceptions). My biggest reason for making this play is the Dolphins run game (166.4 yards a game since Week 10) going up against the Bengals NFL worst defense and worst run defense. The Striped Cats are allowing 157.9 rushing yards a game and a whopping 5.34 yards per rush, which is the fifth worst since 1970. The best way to beat Joe Burrows is to keep his ass on the pine, and Miami is equipped to do just that. 28-21, Dolphins!

3* PANTHERS +3 over Buccaneers - The Bucs have gotten many of their injured players back, but since their bye week they're just 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS and 1-5 ITS (in the stats). Last Thursday, in a 29-28 loss to Atlanta they gave up 476 yards. Meanwhile, Carolina is 9-1 ATS in their last ten as a home dog, and 11-0 ATS as a dog following a SU loss (lost 20-17 at New Orleans last week). 24-20, Panthers!

Leans

BROWNS +10' over Bills - Buffalo is off a huge road win in Foxboro and on the road again. I don't trust Shedeur Sanders enough to make this an official play though.

BRONCOS -3' over Jaguars - Jacksonville's last four wins have come over the hapless Cardinals, Titans, Colts (Daniel Jones was injured in that game.) and the Jets. This is a HUGE step up in class. If the line goes back to -3 I might bite.

BOL to one and all! 

I played panthers last week… lost to saints…. I’ve been wrong on sanders twice.  Played against him first game.  He covered.  Played on him his 3rd  game… he did not.   I’m a very unlucky picker.    

Shedeur looked good versus the Titans and Raiders but I doubt if he finds success against the better teams this year at least. 

@Buffalobob89074

 The better teams….whom are those.  

@Buffalobob89074

 I do see first start vs raiders….    I think they beat New England game one….. wow has their season been awful…. Going to Cleveland… Cincy.  Giants. Jets.  Raiders  Dallas … Tennessee.   New Orleans.    They just have 30 years of mediocrity or worse.           

The Panthers have alternated wins and losses the last eight weeks. Can't ignore their recent record off a loss, but that's not the only reason I played them. I've got this game rated as a pick em, and I'm getting three points. Hope your luck changes this week!

BOL to you today!