NFL week 1

Well, I just looked at how public underdogs did in college football in the first real week of the season.....they went 1-10 ATS....will track this throughout the season in both college and pros...I am using vsin's stats from Fanduel, which would be a more square book than Circa.

As of Saturday night with the first week of the NFL season almost 1 week away, here are the public underdogs as we stand right now, using percentage of bets OR percentage of handle (total amount bet).

  a)  Miami +1', both percentage of bets and handle are over 70%, which could mean I will fade them closer to game time.

  b)  Giants +6, 52% of handle is on Giants....will monitor closely throughout the week...could possible buy-out of my NYG play.

  c)  Raiders +3, 53% of bets are on Raiders

  d)  Falcons +2', 55% of handle is on Falcons

  e)  Lions +2', 77% of bets and 65% of handle is on Lions....possible fade of Lions

  f)  Texans +2', 58% of bets and 60% of handle is on Texans...possible fade of Texans

  g)  Ravens pik.....both public percentages are heavily on Ravens....won't fade "Regular Season Lamar", but won't play them either.

  g)  Bears +1', 54% of bets and 53% of handle is on Bears....will definitely will not be ON Bears and may fade them

NICE. I would venture to guess that totals offer up a new trend as well this season.

@Indigo999

 Bol this season

I’m not on all the unders but the craziness is seeing all the games on the under. 

Sure, anything can happen, and usually does.

I was wrong...the Packers, instead of becoming underdogs, have become bigger favorites on the back of the Parsons trade.

Instead, there is the possibility that the Dolphins may be favored.  I had  a very strong angle favoring the Dolphins, but Miami has become a very strong public underdog, which has gotten me off the play.   It all becomes a wash if Miami becomes favored, as home dogs that are non-divisional matchups in week 1 historically haven't proved to be that great.

Neither the Raiders and the Giants over the 50% public betting threshold has held, and the Patriots and Commanders have become majority favorites.....we like that as those two games are probably the games I like the most.

Both Seattle and Cleveland are very much being ignored by the public with public percentages below 30%.....very good, we like that too.

The game I don't like too much is the Falcons who are starting a tackle who was making pizza a week ago (just kidding)...their top two right tackles have gotten hurt, but of course Tampa Bay's really good tackle is out and two of their best receivers are hurt or recovering from injury as well.  They can't throw it to Mike Evans 35 times can they?

I've been able to get the Falcons at +2.5 as it creeps up ever closer to +3. 

We cannot take either team in the Lions/Packers game, as the Lions are a very public dog, which we consider fading, but they are under a 31-5 ATS angle that I went into in post #1.

Houston, Baltimore and the Bears remain public dogs....will consider fading Houston and the Bears closer to game time.