NFL week 1

@Indigo999

 I’m new here, when you say 1.5 units does that mean 1.5% of your bankroll?

@C8675309

I go higher than 1.5%.....I am betting 5% of my roll on each of these....the first 10 weeks of the NFL season I tend to do well, and this year the plan is to finish by  Halloween and get back into it when the playoffs start.

If you treat this like you are, (going against the public) and not making it some kind of a social event you have got a good chance of being a four percenter.

Post some picks on a thread....it takes some courage to possibly look like a fool.  I lost 7 straight games this season in the beginning of the Canadian football season and I felt like an ignoramus, and I stopped posting, but now I am starting to be limited by my bookmaker in the CFL as I have made it up and more.

There's a lot of volatility in one's betting life...you read the stories of even the successful, famous bettors and there were times where things went really badly for almost every one of them.

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Good luck on your plays!

GL Man -- With you on the Giants

GL Man -- With you on the Giants

GL Man -- With you on the Giants

Do you put a little on the money line when you are on a dog? 
Here’s to a new season 

"Do you put a little on the money line when you are on a dog? Here’s to a new season."

Very interesting question.....in doing research, when one has an advantage when researching trends or historical angles for underdogs, the average return on investment using the moneyline is always around DOUBLE to what it is for betting pointspreads.

So, I "should" (hate that word) be betting moneylines when playing underdogs.....only about 18% of the time do pointspreads come into play....in other words you'll lose 1 out of 6 times by an underdog beating the pointspread, but not winning the game.

It is the better strategy, but that part of my betting game I do not use in an optimal way.

  i)  Prime time games since 2021.....underdogs with the lesser winning percentage in non-neutral site games of more than 4 points have gone:

  a)  away underdogs >4 points 24-20 ATS

  b)  home underdogs >4 points 13-3 ATS

David slays Goliath (recently) when on his home turf.

D and season>2021 and start time>1700 and t:wins

< o:wins

Browns look like a solid pick! Just one correction though as Cincy is 1-11 SU (not ATS) in their first two games under Zac Taylor, including 0-6 SU as a pick or favorite. One huge matchup favors Cleveland and that's their NFL best defensive line vs. a Bengals offensive line that gave up 48 sacks a year ago and hasn't provided good pass protection since Joe Burrows has been there. I haven't dug into the whole Week One slate yet, but the Raiders and Ravens may both be on my card, as well as the Jaguars. I see you're contemplating the Panthers in that one, but from what I've seen and heard, Trevor Lawrence looks like a brand new QB under new HC Liam Coen. Plus he's healthy. I wouldn't play it if the line jumps over three though. BOL my friend! I enjoy your threads.

@Indigo999

 I like all of your picks in Comment #1.  Good luck.

I stand corrected....Zac Taylor is 4-7 ATS, 1-11 straight up the first two weeks of the season.

As far as Lawrence goes, if he doesn't produce this year, there's no hope for him....he, along with Caleb Williams just don't have the "it" factor for me,...they don't have a lot of football sense....maybe he turns his career around this season, but he seems like he is too busy getting his hair out of his eyes and looking pretty rather winning football games. 

  j)  Home dogs that score more than 17 points in their game cover 71.7% of the time, if they score greater than 20 they cover 75% of the time.....Bengals have been 26-12 ATS as road favorites recently, though only 1-3 ATS as road favorites in divisional games......they've allowed 21.6 points per game on the road from 2023 onwards.  Home dogs that outrush yard their opponent cover 71.3% of the time, and those home dogs that outrush attempt their opponent cover 81.3% of the time, going back 30+ years, including going 61-13 ATS in week 1 games, 29-4 ATS (+11.4), 22-10 straight up (+7.7) in divisional week 1 games.

The fact that Cleveland and Chicago will likely outrush their opponents this week is appealing.  Seattle with their new offensive coordinator Kubiak, will be very good at rushing the ball this season.....Seattle has the very same concerns as New Orleans did last season where Kubiak was coaching last,...their offensive line was widely panned.....and they crushed their first two opponents before falling apart after that.

Cleveland has 25% of bettors backing them, and Seattle has 37%....we like that!

@Indigo999

 Baker Mayfield had the best year of his career last season under Coen's tutelage. It'll be interesting to see if he has the same affect on Lawrence.

On that note, I'll be curious to see how Spencer Rattler does with Kellen Moore coaching him. He made a positive impact with Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. 

K)  And, we'll get controversial....both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are 29 years old, and are due for regression or injury concerns this year....if I was a fantasy guy I would be betting both of them to underperform to their amazing standards that they've produced in their careers.  I've got no bones to pick with them...they are my two most favorite players.

Look at Mahomes last season, his age 29 year season....a top 5 all-time quarterback....had his worst year last season,........he was good, but not exceptional.   He'll come back to being who is really is, which is awesome, if not this season, then the next.

I will look to fade Buffalo this season....don't know if I'll do that with the Ravens, as they've been the best regular season team the last 2-3 years, and I like backing a team that were awesome regular season, but then didn't get it done in the playoffs....we'll see what happens game one versus Bills.

The Bills and Allen's regression might be masked by the fact that their division is so crummy....they could crush their division and not be good in out-of-division games.

good thread and info

@Indigo999

 Just a little fuel to add to your Bills regression take. They were +26 in turnover differential and didn't lose the turnover battle in a single game all season, including postseason! Talk about the ball bouncing your way! They were also 11-9 in the stats, so they weren't quite as good as their 15-5 record would indicate.