Underdog side has covered last ten meetings in this series.
Ravens won and covered narrowly in 16-14 grinder at Pitt on Dec 11, last three meetings all decided by 3 points or fewer, last five decided by five or fewer.
Last four meetings “under” as well.
Steel has won and covered four of last five this campaign (only L in that mix vs. Balt), also “under” 11-6 reg season since late 2021.
Tomlin 5-4 as dog in 2022, 20-10 as dog since early 2019. Ravens 1-5-1 vs. spread as host this season, 1-6-1 since late 2021, also “under” 6-1 last seven in 2022.
Underdog side has covered last ten meetings in this series.
Ravens won and covered narrowly in 16-14 grinder at Pitt on Dec 11, last three meetings all decided by 3 points or fewer, last five decided by five or fewer.
Last four meetings “under” as well.
Steel has won and covered four of last five this campaign (only L in that mix vs. Balt), also “under” 11-6 reg season since late 2021.
Tomlin 5-4 as dog in 2022, 20-10 as dog since early 2019. Ravens 1-5-1 vs. spread as host this season, 1-6-1 since late 2021, also “under” 6-1 last seven in 2022.
Stat to know: The Dolphins are seeking to win back-to-back games at New England for the first time since 1999-2000 (won in 2021 Week 1 last season).
What's at stake: Miami can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss/tie from the Jets, or a tie, a Jets loss and a Steelers loss/tie. ESPN's FPI says the Dolphins currently have a 68% chance to make the playoffs, which would rise to 89% with a win or fall to 54% with a loss. The Patriots, meanwhile, have a 19% chance, which could jump to 32% with a win. But a loss knocks them out of the race.
What to know for fantasy: An 84-yard touchdown last week against the Packers helped Waddle post his second consecutive 20-point game (he had two 20-point games during the first 14 weeks of this season). He didn't quite get there in the season opener against these Patriots, but he did turn five targets into 17.7 fantasy points.
Betting nugget: Bridgewater is 42-22 ATS in his career (.656), 24-8 ATS as an underdog (.750) and 19-4 ATS as a road underdog (.826). Miami is 7-6 ATS this season in games that Tua Tagovailoa starts and 0-2 ATS in games in which he doesn't.
Moody's pick: Dolphins 27, Patriots 24 Walder's pick: Dolphins 26, Patriots 17 FPI prediction: NE, 60.2% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Stat to know: The Dolphins are seeking to win back-to-back games at New England for the first time since 1999-2000 (won in 2021 Week 1 last season).
What's at stake: Miami can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss/tie from the Jets, or a tie, a Jets loss and a Steelers loss/tie. ESPN's FPI says the Dolphins currently have a 68% chance to make the playoffs, which would rise to 89% with a win or fall to 54% with a loss. The Patriots, meanwhile, have a 19% chance, which could jump to 32% with a win. But a loss knocks them out of the race.
What to know for fantasy: An 84-yard touchdown last week against the Packers helped Waddle post his second consecutive 20-point game (he had two 20-point games during the first 14 weeks of this season). He didn't quite get there in the season opener against these Patriots, but he did turn five targets into 17.7 fantasy points.
Betting nugget: Bridgewater is 42-22 ATS in his career (.656), 24-8 ATS as an underdog (.750) and 19-4 ATS as a road underdog (.826). Miami is 7-6 ATS this season in games that Tua Tagovailoa starts and 0-2 ATS in games in which he doesn't.
Moody's pick: Dolphins 27, Patriots 24 Walder's pick: Dolphins 26, Patriots 17 FPI prediction: NE, 60.2% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (7-8) — Panthers won four of last six games, covered seven of last nine. — Darnold is 20-33 as an NFL starter, 3-1 this year. — Last four games, Panthers ran ball for 187.3 yards/game. — Panthers are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog. — You’re reading armadillosports com — Carolina has converted only 52-177 (29.4%) third down plays. — Carolina is 15-13 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss (2-2 TY). — Carolina is 6-10 ATS last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. — Last three Panther games went over the total. — Carolina went over its team total in seven of last nine games. — Carolina is 5-2 scoring 22+ points, 1-7 scoring 21 or less. — Last three games, opponents converted 21-41 on third down.
— Despite being 7-8, Tampa Bay is in first place in AFC South. — Tampa Bay is 4-6 SU in its last ten games. — Tampa Bay is 3-4 SU/0-6-1 ATS at home this season. — Last four games, Bucs were outscored 47-26 in first half. — Buccaneers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last dozen games. — Tampa Bay is 6-1 allowing less than 20 points, 0-7 giving up 20+. — Bucs turned ball over 11 times in last four games (minus-6 TO’s) — Tampa Bay is 2-3 ATS this year coming off a win. — 11 of 15 Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (7-8) — Panthers won four of last six games, covered seven of last nine. — Darnold is 20-33 as an NFL starter, 3-1 this year. — Last four games, Panthers ran ball for 187.3 yards/game. — Panthers are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog. — You’re reading armadillosports com — Carolina has converted only 52-177 (29.4%) third down plays. — Carolina is 15-13 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss (2-2 TY). — Carolina is 6-10 ATS last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. — Last three Panther games went over the total. — Carolina went over its team total in seven of last nine games. — Carolina is 5-2 scoring 22+ points, 1-7 scoring 21 or less. — Last three games, opponents converted 21-41 on third down.
— Despite being 7-8, Tampa Bay is in first place in AFC South. — Tampa Bay is 4-6 SU in its last ten games. — Tampa Bay is 3-4 SU/0-6-1 ATS at home this season. — Last four games, Bucs were outscored 47-26 in first half. — Buccaneers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last dozen games. — Tampa Bay is 6-1 allowing less than 20 points, 0-7 giving up 20+. — Bucs turned ball over 11 times in last four games (minus-6 TO’s) — Tampa Bay is 2-3 ATS this year coming off a win. — 11 of 15 Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
Bucs were held under 100 yards rushing in 12 of last 14 games. — Last six games, Tampa Bay lost field position by 12-5-10-9-26-4 yards.
— Winner of this game will be in first place in NFC South. — Carolina (+13) upset the Buccaneers 21-3 at home in Week 7. — Tampa Bay won five of last six meetings SU. — Panthers are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Tampa. — Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Bucs were held under 100 yards rushing in 12 of last 14 games. — Last six games, Tampa Bay lost field position by 12-5-10-9-26-4 yards.
— Winner of this game will be in first place in NFC South. — Carolina (+13) upset the Buccaneers 21-3 at home in Week 7. — Tampa Bay won five of last six meetings SU. — Panthers are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Tampa. — Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
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