Pitt last week looked good first half and bam - didn't work out - so may want to fade - nahh stick with me. Let's look at some numbers:
Houst 22 14 4 6 3 3
-2 NE 6 4 6 9 5 32
Ne opened up as a 2 pt fav - currently -3 - 3.5 (Madduxsports.com ) . Ne is better in rushing off at 6 vs 22; Passing off 4 vs 14; Hous is better in rushing def at 4 vs 6 ; better in passing def at 6 vs 9; Better in sagarin rank 3 vs 5 and clearly better in Sched strength at 3 vs 32.
Houst on paper definitely looks like the play. Schedule strength is a key stat, however, we've seen teams with weak schedules win games as favorites before - Philly vs Rams and Philly vs gby - last season - Philly had a sched strength of 30.
The numbers I collect - this game is similar to a game played between Balt. and Ne in the regular season several years ago - where Balti. had a Sagarin rank of 4 and schedule strength of 4 and NE was fav by 3 and won the game by 3. There's no other data I have with Single digits for both sagarin rank and sagarin sched strength and the home team being favored. The Balt. NE gives me the indication the home team can take it. My plays today:
1. Ne - 3 -115
2. LA Rams - 3.5
Good luck all
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