Also not that it should factor into decisions about making money betting sports, but I haven't experienced a thrill in gambling like hitting a golf outright. When you bet some college football team ML +850 and it comes through you're a god for a day but in golf betting that's just betting chalk. Nothing like nailing a 100/1 outright.
Also not that it should factor into decisions about making money betting sports, but I haven't experienced a thrill in gambling like hitting a golf outright. When you bet some college football team ML +850 and it comes through you're a god for a day but in golf betting that's just betting chalk. Nothing like nailing a 100/1 outright.
First off, you are defiantly one of a kind, a breath of fresh air to Covers, and I thank you. I do my best to make my own lines, then bet the actual lines accordingly, i also search out the best numbers. I come on here to see what the Real Degen's think, and for laughs...I only look at a few people and take advise that i feel i missed on my own...With that being said.. On this game, I feel the performance of the Chiefs' wide receivers has been a significant letdown during the current season. The departure of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins (though they are already two years removed from it) has left the team struggling to find a consistent target for Mahomes. Sure, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Hardman have shown flashes of success. However, their inconsistency has shown concern about the team's ability to depend on them. This lack of reliability could potentially spell disaster for the Chiefs in the upcoming AFC Championship Game against the Feisty Ravens...All season long, the Chiefs' receivers have been inconsistent, I DONT see that changing here..NO ONE wants to see Taylor Swift 15 times, or his beer chugging brother. I see Baltimore being ready for the Clown show, and putting a beatdown on this team.. My real question to you is, after Baltimore and SF win (I didnt bet SF yet, but would be surprised if they dont win) What do you make that line? Balt/ SF And what would be your lean or play for that exact scenario? I figure, depending on scores this weekend, i would say Balt-1 Again, great year MANSACK
Thanks.
I think the SB if Niners / Ravens is a PK.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
First off, you are defiantly one of a kind, a breath of fresh air to Covers, and I thank you. I do my best to make my own lines, then bet the actual lines accordingly, i also search out the best numbers. I come on here to see what the Real Degen's think, and for laughs...I only look at a few people and take advise that i feel i missed on my own...With that being said.. On this game, I feel the performance of the Chiefs' wide receivers has been a significant letdown during the current season. The departure of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins (though they are already two years removed from it) has left the team struggling to find a consistent target for Mahomes. Sure, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Hardman have shown flashes of success. However, their inconsistency has shown concern about the team's ability to depend on them. This lack of reliability could potentially spell disaster for the Chiefs in the upcoming AFC Championship Game against the Feisty Ravens...All season long, the Chiefs' receivers have been inconsistent, I DONT see that changing here..NO ONE wants to see Taylor Swift 15 times, or his beer chugging brother. I see Baltimore being ready for the Clown show, and putting a beatdown on this team.. My real question to you is, after Baltimore and SF win (I didnt bet SF yet, but would be surprised if they dont win) What do you make that line? Balt/ SF And what would be your lean or play for that exact scenario? I figure, depending on scores this weekend, i would say Balt-1 Again, great year MANSACK
@brn2loslive2win Curious about this as well. I was rolling through Van's twitter follows to see if there's anything in there I should pay attention to and noticed we follow a few of the same golf accounts. Seems like a statistical sport Van could be profitable in and it's so much easier than the grind of a football season IMO. Congrats on a great NFL season, Van
Ahhh.... Good detectives here...
So I have been curious about golf betting. Smaller market, not very mature - with lots of emerging data sources and a schedule that fits in well with mine - all a very good formula for what I like to do. So 2 years ago I started tracking data, working data, and getting familiar with it all. If you cant tell by now - I am not going to do anything until I am fairly sure I can make a good go of it - so I have spent two years simulating wagering.
I am glad I did. First off - there is a pretty big house hold on a lot of the types of bets you can get edges on. Hard to bet in to 40 cent spreads on head to heads - which is what a lot of books offer. Exchanges offer wagering - but getting matched for any bets of size is still difficult - but getting better.
Last season, I was a -.9% theoretical EV - which is not so bad. But not good enough to start wagering yet. But getting closer and closer.
I do love the data side of golf. I dont know if there is a better data sport out there (MLB probably).
My best (probably worst) golf wagering story....
I had a "fun" bet on Justin Rose to win the Masters the year he lost to Sergio Garcia in a playoff. I had the wager at a bitcoin book - and I think my odds were like 20-1 on Rose to win - and at the time I would have won about 60 bitcoin which was about 80k at the time (from memory). Rose had a 2 shot lead with 2 holes to play (memory), and choked the whole thing up and went to extra holes and lost.
At the time I was sick that I didnt win 80k, but that 60 bitcoin at todays prices is about $2.4M.
I try not to think about it lol.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
@brn2loslive2win Curious about this as well. I was rolling through Van's twitter follows to see if there's anything in there I should pay attention to and noticed we follow a few of the same golf accounts. Seems like a statistical sport Van could be profitable in and it's so much easier than the grind of a football season IMO. Congrats on a great NFL season, Van
Ahhh.... Good detectives here...
So I have been curious about golf betting. Smaller market, not very mature - with lots of emerging data sources and a schedule that fits in well with mine - all a very good formula for what I like to do. So 2 years ago I started tracking data, working data, and getting familiar with it all. If you cant tell by now - I am not going to do anything until I am fairly sure I can make a good go of it - so I have spent two years simulating wagering.
I am glad I did. First off - there is a pretty big house hold on a lot of the types of bets you can get edges on. Hard to bet in to 40 cent spreads on head to heads - which is what a lot of books offer. Exchanges offer wagering - but getting matched for any bets of size is still difficult - but getting better.
Last season, I was a -.9% theoretical EV - which is not so bad. But not good enough to start wagering yet. But getting closer and closer.
I do love the data side of golf. I dont know if there is a better data sport out there (MLB probably).
My best (probably worst) golf wagering story....
I had a "fun" bet on Justin Rose to win the Masters the year he lost to Sergio Garcia in a playoff. I had the wager at a bitcoin book - and I think my odds were like 20-1 on Rose to win - and at the time I would have won about 60 bitcoin which was about 80k at the time (from memory). Rose had a 2 shot lead with 2 holes to play (memory), and choked the whole thing up and went to extra holes and lost.
At the time I was sick that I didnt win 80k, but that 60 bitcoin at todays prices is about $2.4M.
@vanzack Just out of curiosity say the line stayed where you got it originally at -3 -108 - Would that bump up to a 5 or 6 unit play? Or is 4 the most you will risk on an nfl side? Thanks…
I say my units are between 1-5, but really it would take a LOT for me to go to 5. 4 is a big play.
It would have to be a really weird number for me to go to 5 units on the Ravens. Like PK or something.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
@vanzack Just out of curiosity say the line stayed where you got it originally at -3 -108 - Would that bump up to a 5 or 6 unit play? Or is 4 the most you will risk on an nfl side? Thanks…
I say my units are between 1-5, but really it would take a LOT for me to go to 5. 4 is a big play.
It would have to be a really weird number for me to go to 5 units on the Ravens. Like PK or something.
But if there is one life lesson I have learned during my time on this planet is to be a specialist. It doesnt matter what specialty. Just concentrate on being a master of a few things rather than ok at a bunch of things.
If I cant be potentially great at something I try not to invest too much time.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
But if there is one life lesson I have learned during my time on this planet is to be a specialist. It doesnt matter what specialty. Just concentrate on being a master of a few things rather than ok at a bunch of things.
If I cant be potentially great at something I try not to invest too much time.
@vanzack What are your thoughts on this one? DK has a great breakdown in his thread already that basically 99% echoes my thoughts on this matchup. If Mahomes wasn't the QB of the Chiefs then I'd be absolutely laying the wood on the Ravens. In this case, I hit Baltimore -3 out of the gate and have added a nice number to their SB futures at +200 and +190. In addition to everything already stated in the thread linked below, I'd point out that KC just had their single highest offensive DVOA output of the season vs. the Bills. I like KC's defense to play well vs. Lamar but their offense is going to come back to Earth here this week and Mahomes can only do so much. If the defense decides this week to be their worst week of the year then this thing goes Over but I'm liking the Under so far. Ravens are a different animal than KC has faced all year. I don't see them getting blown out but a 27-17 Ravens win or something slightly closer is definitely in the cards here. I'll be adding to Ravens to win SB after this week I'm sure. If we get a fluke game and KC pulls it out then it'll be load up on KC time for another ring... https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/dk-nfl-afc-championship-chiefs-vs-ravens-103814572
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
@vanzack What are your thoughts on this one? DK has a great breakdown in his thread already that basically 99% echoes my thoughts on this matchup. If Mahomes wasn't the QB of the Chiefs then I'd be absolutely laying the wood on the Ravens. In this case, I hit Baltimore -3 out of the gate and have added a nice number to their SB futures at +200 and +190. In addition to everything already stated in the thread linked below, I'd point out that KC just had their single highest offensive DVOA output of the season vs. the Bills. I like KC's defense to play well vs. Lamar but their offense is going to come back to Earth here this week and Mahomes can only do so much. If the defense decides this week to be their worst week of the year then this thing goes Over but I'm liking the Under so far. Ravens are a different animal than KC has faced all year. I don't see them getting blown out but a 27-17 Ravens win or something slightly closer is definitely in the cards here. I'll be adding to Ravens to win SB after this week I'm sure. If we get a fluke game and KC pulls it out then it'll be load up on KC time for another ring... https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/dk-nfl-afc-championship-chiefs-vs-ravens-103814572
Thanks for sharing the resources and knowledge. Mighty kind. Always thought CBB is the most predictable sport once conference play begins. Have you ever gotten into that?
Read post #29 and #30
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Thanks for sharing the resources and knowledge. Mighty kind. Always thought CBB is the most predictable sport once conference play begins. Have you ever gotten into that?
Hi Van, DFOB founder here (Dogs For Our Brave). Just a quick note to thank you for all the hard work you put into wagering. And for your wonderful support for our rescue dogs in so many shelters. WELL DONE
Hi Van, DFOB founder here (Dogs For Our Brave). Just a quick note to thank you for all the hard work you put into wagering. And for your wonderful support for our rescue dogs in so many shelters. WELL DONE
I like both plays, but I'm not wagering so light on Detroit. I haven't finalized anything yet. Not till Saturday morning. I wish you could join me when I plug in my multi million dollar computer while enjoying a Mickey D's steak, egg and cheese bagel ??
I like both plays, but I'm not wagering so light on Detroit. I haven't finalized anything yet. Not till Saturday morning. I wish you could join me when I plug in my multi million dollar computer while enjoying a Mickey D's steak, egg and cheese bagel ??
Van I echo what Rush51 said very informative and fascinating philosophy's you revealed! I'm going to try to use one this weekend. Hope to change my losing ways! Thanks
Van I echo what Rush51 said very informative and fascinating philosophy's you revealed! I'm going to try to use one this weekend. Hope to change my losing ways! Thanks
Quote Originally Posted by GAM: @brn2loslive2win Curious about this as well. I was rolling through Van's twitter follows to see if there's anything in there I should pay attention to and noticed we follow a few of the same golf accounts. Seems like a statistical sport Van could be profitable in and it's so much easier than the grind of a football season IMO. Congrats on a great NFL season, Van Ahhh.... Good detectives here... So I have been curious about golf betting. Smaller market, not very mature - with lots of emerging data sources and a schedule that fits in well with mine - all a very good formula for what I like to do. So 2 years ago I started tracking data, working data, and getting familiar with it all. If you cant tell by now - I am not going to do anything until I am fairly sure I can make a good go of it - so I have spent two years simulating wagering. I am glad I did. First off - there is a pretty big house hold on a lot of the types of bets you can get edges on. Hard to bet in to 40 cent spreads on head to heads - which is what a lot of books offer. Exchanges offer wagering - but getting matched for any bets of size is still difficult - but getting better. Last season, I was a -.9% theoretical EV - which is not so bad. But not good enough to start wagering yet. But getting closer and closer. I do love the data side of golf. I dont know if there is a better data sport out there (MLB probably). My best (probably worst) golf wagering story.... I had a "fun" bet on Justin Rose to win the Masters the year he lost to Sergio Garcia in a playoff. I had the wager at a bitcoin book - and I think my odds were like 20-1 on Rose to win - and at the time I would have won about 60 bitcoin which was about 80k at the time (from memory). Rose had a 2 shot lead with 2 holes to play (memory), and choked the whole thing up and went to extra holes and lost. At the time I was sick that I didnt win 80k, but that 60 bitcoin at todays prices is about $2.4M. I try not to think about it lol.
Just sickening when you convert it to current value
I look forward to the day a couple years from now that I can consult your golf card on Twitter or share in discussions here on Covers about the weekly events
Quote Originally Posted by GAM: @brn2loslive2win Curious about this as well. I was rolling through Van's twitter follows to see if there's anything in there I should pay attention to and noticed we follow a few of the same golf accounts. Seems like a statistical sport Van could be profitable in and it's so much easier than the grind of a football season IMO. Congrats on a great NFL season, Van Ahhh.... Good detectives here... So I have been curious about golf betting. Smaller market, not very mature - with lots of emerging data sources and a schedule that fits in well with mine - all a very good formula for what I like to do. So 2 years ago I started tracking data, working data, and getting familiar with it all. If you cant tell by now - I am not going to do anything until I am fairly sure I can make a good go of it - so I have spent two years simulating wagering. I am glad I did. First off - there is a pretty big house hold on a lot of the types of bets you can get edges on. Hard to bet in to 40 cent spreads on head to heads - which is what a lot of books offer. Exchanges offer wagering - but getting matched for any bets of size is still difficult - but getting better. Last season, I was a -.9% theoretical EV - which is not so bad. But not good enough to start wagering yet. But getting closer and closer. I do love the data side of golf. I dont know if there is a better data sport out there (MLB probably). My best (probably worst) golf wagering story.... I had a "fun" bet on Justin Rose to win the Masters the year he lost to Sergio Garcia in a playoff. I had the wager at a bitcoin book - and I think my odds were like 20-1 on Rose to win - and at the time I would have won about 60 bitcoin which was about 80k at the time (from memory). Rose had a 2 shot lead with 2 holes to play (memory), and choked the whole thing up and went to extra holes and lost. At the time I was sick that I didnt win 80k, but that 60 bitcoin at todays prices is about $2.4M. I try not to think about it lol.
Just sickening when you convert it to current value
I look forward to the day a couple years from now that I can consult your golf card on Twitter or share in discussions here on Covers about the weekly events
Van- Math question....disregarding your opinion on parlays.....
Balt ML/Detroit Atl line +10.5 parlay is about +140
Where, if any, does the math suggest this is a good wager? Closer to +200? I think the current Ravens ML is too low.....so while it doesn't add "value", at the current -180ish, I think its 40c too low.....thus making it appealing to take those 3.5 points and give them to Detroit.....
Van- Math question....disregarding your opinion on parlays.....
Balt ML/Detroit Atl line +10.5 parlay is about +140
Where, if any, does the math suggest this is a good wager? Closer to +200? I think the current Ravens ML is too low.....so while it doesn't add "value", at the current -180ish, I think its 40c too low.....thus making it appealing to take those 3.5 points and give them to Detroit.....
[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]I'd like to get a +7.5 on the Lions at a decent price, but not paying -115+. They announce Deebo and the line has moved to the Lions?[/Quote]
[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]I'd like to get a +7.5 on the Lions at a decent price, but not paying -115+. They announce Deebo and the line has moved to the Lions?[/Quote]
Finally! What I have been waiting for a long time. To see someone realistic, someone professional who know how to bet. Not all haters on this Covers. What vanzack wrote here is the reason why I joined covers 10 years ago. Finally, I found a man who knows how to "eat" bets. I wasn't hooked on the NFL forum until I saw a post by @vanzack on the NBA forum last December and I started following American football myself. I don't bet on the NBA anymore because the NBA is a joke now. If you want to win by betting, do the opposite of what the bookmakers expect.For example, the big soccer teams start to receive a lot of goals from the weaker teams.Bet that any big team like Barcelona, Milan, Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern, Atletico Madrid, Dortmund, Monaco etc get a goal from the low ranked teams. If they play at home and continue attack and score earlier try for the second goal in game at -130 or -190.
Finally! What I have been waiting for a long time. To see someone realistic, someone professional who know how to bet. Not all haters on this Covers. What vanzack wrote here is the reason why I joined covers 10 years ago. Finally, I found a man who knows how to "eat" bets. I wasn't hooked on the NFL forum until I saw a post by @vanzack on the NBA forum last December and I started following American football myself. I don't bet on the NBA anymore because the NBA is a joke now. If you want to win by betting, do the opposite of what the bookmakers expect.For example, the big soccer teams start to receive a lot of goals from the weaker teams.Bet that any big team like Barcelona, Milan, Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern, Atletico Madrid, Dortmund, Monaco etc get a goal from the low ranked teams. If they play at home and continue attack and score earlier try for the second goal in game at -130 or -190.