Monday Night Football Week 14

I am taking the Chargers as home underdogs tonight against an Eagles team that looks nothing like the group that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy eight months ago. Philadelphia is in full offensive collapse mode and I do not think two losses even begins to tell the story of how broken this team is right now. This Eagles Offense is a Mess Here is the number that jumped off the page when I started digging into this game. Over the past four weeks the Eagles have averaged 15.5 points per game. Think about that for a second. The defending Super Bowl champions with the highest paid offense in football cannot even sniff 16 points a game lately. And it is not like they suddenly lost all their talent. This is basically the same roster that averaged 29 points and 366 yards per game last season. Now they are sitting at 21 and 304. They rank 24th in total offense, 23rd in passing, 22nd in rushing. Something is seriously wrong in Philadelphia and nobody seems to have answers. The offensive line that mauled everyone a year ago has fallen apart. Lane Johnson is out again tonight with that Lisfranc injury. Landon Dickerson has been battling ankle problems. Cam Jurgens just came back from surgery. These guys cannot get on the same page and Jalen Hurts is feeling the pressure.

What Happened to Saquon Barkley I keep coming back to Saquon Barkley when I look at this Eagles offense because the dropoff is unlike anything I have seen from a star player in recent memory. At this exact point last season he had around 1,400 rushing yards and was on his way to 2,005. Right now he is sitting at 740. That is over 650 yards less than where he was a year ago through 12 games and he is on pace for barely 1,000 yards this season. His yards per carry have cratered from 5.8 last year which was second in the league down to 3.7 this season which ranks 36th. He has been held under 60 yards rushing in 10 of his 12 games. The home run plays are completely gone. Last year he ripped off 17 runs of 20 yards or more. This year he has two. Some of this is on the offensive line. Last season they helped Barkley average 4.2 yards before contact which led the NFL. That number is basically cut in half now. Defenders are hitting him at the mesh point and the explosive runs just are not happening. Chicago Just Showed Everyone How to Beat Philly If you did not watch the Black Friday game you missed a blueprint for how to attack this Eagles team. The Bears ran the ball 47 times for 281 yards and had two guys go over 100 yards in the same game. D'Andre Swift hit 125 and Kyle Monangai went for 130. Chicago had not done that since Walter Payton and Matt Suhey pulled it off back in 1985. The Eagles run defense is in shambles. They came into this week ranked 24th against the run and have been giving up about 120 yards per game on the ground over the past month. The Bears dominated time of possession for nearly 40 minutes while the Eagles offense stood on the sideline for barely 20. That is a recipe for disaster against any competent rushing attack.

The Chargers Get Omarion Hampton Back Tonight This is where the timing could not be worse for Philadelphia. Los Angeles activated Omarion Hampton off injured reserve today. Their first round pick has been out since Week 5 with an ankle fracture but looked like a future star before he went down. He had 314 yards on 66 carries at 4.8 per clip with two touchdowns in five games. Now Hampton slots in next to Kimani Vidal who has been fantastic filling in. Vidal is averaging 75 yards per game at 4.5 per carry and just torched the Raiders for 126 yards last week. The Chargers suddenly have a legit one two punch in the backfield against an Eagles defense that just got gashed for 281 on the ground. I keep thinking about how this game script could play out. The Chargers get an early lead, they start pounding Hampton and Vidal, the Eagles offense goes three and out because that is what they do now, and Los Angeles just bleeds clock the rest of the way. Herbert is Going to Be Fine Look I get the concern about Justin Herbert and his hand. He had surgery last Monday and is listed as questionable. But here is what matters. It is his left hand. His non throwing hand. He already played through the injury last week and completed 15 of 20 passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns after coming back with a cast and glove. Yes he cannot take snaps under center which limits some short yardage and goal line stuff. The Chargers know this and have had all week to game plan around it. They will use Trey Lance in those spots if they need to. But Herbert can still throw the ball, make his reads, and execute the passing game. His mechanics are not affected at all. Honestly with Hampton back and the Eagles run defense looking this vulnerable I think the Chargers want to run the ball anyway. Herbert might not need to do much tonight.

Harbaugh Knows How to Cover Jim Harbaugh is 19-10 against the spread since taking over the Chargers. That is the best mark in the NFL. He is 7-2 ATS in primetime games. The Chargers have covered plus 2.5 in four of their last five and five of their last seven at home. The Eagles on the other hand have failed to cover back to back weeks and are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 December games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Chargers. Los Angeles is 5-1 straight up in their last six home games against Philadelphia. I am a big believer that coaching matters in these spots and Harbaugh has proven he knows how to get his team ready for big games. Nick Sirianni is still defending his offensive coordinator after fans literally egged the guy's house last week. That tells you where things stand in Philly right now. The Chargers Defense Can Make Life Miserable Jesse Minter has put together a legitimate top ten defense. They rank third in total yards allowed at 275 per game and 11th in points allowed at 21 per game. The pass rush has been on fire lately with 17 sacks over the last five games. Tuli Tuipulotu is having a breakout year with 10 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. The guy has been unblockable at times. With Lane Johnson out and Fred Johnson filling in at right tackle for the Eagles this is a brutal matchup. Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack are going to be in Hurts face all night long.

The Public is Loading Up on Philly About 73 percent of the money and tickets are on the Eagles as of this afternoon. The line opened at Eagles minus 1.5 and has bounced around between minus 1.5 and minus 2.5 all week. Books seem pretty comfortable taking Chargers money which is always interesting. When you have a public team coming off back to back losses with a broken offense facing a well coached home dog getting points in primetime I want to be on the other side. This is exactly the kind of spot where Vegas tends to clean up. Give Me the Chargers Everything lines up for Los Angeles tonight. The Eagles cannot run the ball, cannot sustain drives, and are committing penalties at an alarming rate. Their offensive line is banged up and their best player looks like a shell of himself. The Chargers have a top ten defense, a suddenly loaded backfield with Hampton returning, a quarterback who is nowhere near as limited as the headlines suggest, and a coach who has been money against the number. I am buying the Chargers up to plus 3 and feeling very good about it.

Gimme Los Angeles +3  (buying half a point)

Yeah I hear ya — Eagles win

@JimmyGape

 He ran the ball over 400 times last year. Thats why I stayed away from him in fantasy drafts 

That .5 half point buy is very expensive (-148) on my book ..bet365.

That 5-1 vs. Philly straight up at home stat is enough for me to take a shot on Chargers ML @ +120.

Let's Go!  

@JimmyGape

 GL sir 

Eagles probably starts first. I would wait for first blood to get a bargain plus points. Bol

Jimmy the biggest 49er homer there is and the Biggest eagles hater lol.  still sore over  NFC championship where we send the Niners back to Cali in crutches and wheelchairs.  

Is this Jimmy the gape talking or chat GPS

Eagles it is !!!!

lay the -2.5 and overs

Any parlay tonite, don't want to miss another one

Good stuff. Thx for your insights.