Look ahead line with Nix was DENVER -2 vs N.E

N.E @ DENVER AFCCG

With BO Nix declares out we saw a 7 point swing in the line.

N.E now favored -5 points.

I can’t make any sense of this. You would think Denver lost prime John Elway or Mahomes. It’s Bo Nix ? 

Well if you were a bookie would you make it lower? I wouldn't. Public is going to steam onto the Pats.

Remember most bettors these days are fantasy nerds who migrated once it became legal. That's why they all whine about FanDuel. They are very prone to focusing a ton on what one player means. They're not seasoned bettors who have seen time and time again that a backup can certainly come in and light it up for one game, especially with a good team around him and good coach. They're pros after all. Usually they lose the 2nd game but the first one they can look great sometimes.

Also people think the Pats are a juggernaut and have forgotten all about their weak schedule and completely discount how Houston played bad not necessarily that NE played great they just made less mistakes and made one or two great plays.

Houston could have fallen on a fumble and changed the game. And then another one. And then not fumbled in the red zone. I could go on and on. Denver will be a tough out but the bookies cannot put it any lower than what it is. It would be all Pats money and d probably already is.

its not like nix is worth 7 pts or anything he's prob worth about 1 or 2 over an avg qb with this denver team its just that stidham is worth about -5 in this spot

Should be good