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#1
Most sportsbooks have Love's O/U draft position at 4.5.
I have a difficult time thinking that Arizona or Tennessee will draft Love.
- 2025 vs. Miami (Ranked 6th vs. Run): Love was held to 3.3 YPC (10 carries for 33 yards).
- 2024 College Football Playoff (vs. Ohio State): He managed only 0.75 YPC (4 carries for 3 yards).
- 2024 vs. Georgia: He recorded 3.1 YPC (6 carries for 19 yards).
- 2024 vs. Penn State: He averaged 4.18 YPC (11 carries for 46 yards).
Most sportsbooks have Love's O/U draft position at 4.5.
I have a difficult time thinking that Arizona or Tennessee will draft Love.
Data from the last two seasons reveals that Love struggled specifically against teams with top-ranked run defenses:
- 2025 vs. Miami (Ranked 6th vs. Run): Love was held to 3.3 YPC (10 carries for 33 yards).
- 2024 College Football Playoff (vs. Ohio State): He managed only 0.75 YPC (4 carries for 3 yards).
- 2024 vs. Georgia: He recorded 3.1 YPC (6 carries for 19 yards).
- 2024 vs. Penn State: He averaged 4.18 YPC (11 carries for 46 yards).
In contrast, his high season averages were heavily bolstered by performances against lower-ranked defenses, such as 150+ yard games against USC and Purdue. Notre Dame has one of the better offense lines in CFB and his backup found similar success. The situation reminds me of Darren McFadden & Felix Jones Jr.
In the last 25 years, the only backs that worthy of the pick were Robinson (8), Barkley (2), McCaffrey (8), Peterson (7) and Tomlinson (5). The other 11 backs may have one or two good seasons, but were pretty average otherwise. And no RBs won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them!
Given the number of positions that need to be addressed by the Titans & Cardinals, the value placed on RBs and Love's performance against top defenses, I really like the OVER bet. Am I crazy for thinking this?
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