I started a thread last year regarding home teams that have a closing line of -3 and it was fairly profitable. We all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field.
Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%} Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%} Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}"
Closing SBR lines are what count so be prepared to make bets 5-15 minutes before kickoff.
Week 1: 1-0 (SU and ATS)
Tampa (-3) so the play was on Tennessee
Week 2 Leans as of 9/16 12:50pm PST
KC is currently -3 so play will be on Denver if it holds.
Carolina is currently -3 so play will be on Houston if it holds.
Minnesota is currently -3 so play will be on Detroit if it holds.
Cincinnati is currently -3 so play will be on San Diego if it holds
I started a thread last year regarding home teams that have a closing line of -3 and it was fairly profitable. We all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field.
Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%} Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%} Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}"
Closing SBR lines are what count so be prepared to make bets 5-15 minutes before kickoff.
Week 1: 1-0 (SU and ATS)
Tampa (-3) so the play was on Tennessee
Week 2 Leans as of 9/16 12:50pm PST
KC is currently -3 so play will be on Denver if it holds.
Carolina is currently -3 so play will be on Houston if it holds.
Minnesota is currently -3 so play will be on Detroit if it holds.
Cincinnati is currently -3 so play will be on San Diego if it holds
Is this because the home team may be overrated by the public ? Just pondering why that result happened ...
Lines makers give home team 3 points for just having home field advantage. This may not be true 100% of the time but I think they do more often than not. Better team prevails at the end and will either win or cover spread.
Is this because the home team may be overrated by the public ? Just pondering why that result happened ...
Lines makers give home team 3 points for just having home field advantage. This may not be true 100% of the time but I think they do more often than not. Better team prevails at the end and will either win or cover spread.
This game will go off at -3.5 so throw that thing out the window. I'm having a hard time believing that info though. Home field is huge! Also, 72% of the teams that win the game cover too. Or something close to that number.
This game will go off at -3.5 so throw that thing out the window. I'm having a hard time believing that info though. Home field is huge! Also, 72% of the teams that win the game cover too. Or something close to that number.
I started a thread last year regarding home teams that have a closing line of -3 and it was fairly profitable. We all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field.
Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%} Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%} Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}"
I started a thread last year regarding home teams that have a closing line of -3 and it was fairly profitable. We all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field.
Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%} Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%} Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}"
Thanks mancity. I don't wager a lot on this system and do make other bets based on other variables. But this is a system I noticed last year and want to ride with it, win or lose. Based on historic research, it seems like a winner. Last year showed good results in the beginning of the year then tapered off. Let's go Broncos
Thanks mancity. I don't wager a lot on this system and do make other bets based on other variables. But this is a system I noticed last year and want to ride with it, win or lose. Based on historic research, it seems like a winner. Last year showed good results in the beginning of the year then tapered off. Let's go Broncos
Steady leaning on Houston +3, San Diego +3. Detroit might be a play and Seattle may be a play later. Stay tuned 5-15 mins before kickoff for final plays
Steady leaning on Houston +3, San Diego +3. Detroit might be a play and Seattle may be a play later. Stay tuned 5-15 mins before kickoff for final plays
Well, not a good day. Chargers could have pushed with the 2pt conversion but flopped. today - 0-3 (not counting ML plays since this is ats system) ytd - 2-3
Well, not a good day. Chargers could have pushed with the 2pt conversion but flopped. today - 0-3 (not counting ML plays since this is ats system) ytd - 2-3
I have tracked this for the last 6 years and there is a slight edge of 58% which the away team +3 covers the spread and 66% will cover or push.
I think there is slight edge when the average is below 58% because in the last 6 years - you would win 6 out 10 games - thus be up 2 betting units.
Timing is key - because there will be trends where this will miss 3-4 times in a row - so you need to play every +3. I only had 2 games on my book at +3 - Houston and Seatle this Sunday, but they went 0-2.
Another interesting points is the average margin of victory is 9.5 points when the
I have tracked this for the last 6 years and there is a slight edge of 58% which the away team +3 covers the spread and 66% will cover or push.
I think there is slight edge when the average is below 58% because in the last 6 years - you would win 6 out 10 games - thus be up 2 betting units.
Timing is key - because there will be trends where this will miss 3-4 times in a row - so you need to play every +3. I only had 2 games on my book at +3 - Houston and Seatle this Sunday, but they went 0-2.
Another interesting points is the average margin of victory is 9.5 points when the
I started a thread last year regarding home teams that have a closing line of -3 and it was fairly profitable. We all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field.
Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%} Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%} Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}"
Closing SBR lines are what count so be prepared to make bets 5-15 minutes before kickoff.
Week 1: 1-0 (SU and ATS)
Tampa (-3) so the play was on Tennessee
Week 2 Leans as of 9/16 12:50pm PST
KC is currently -3 so play will be on Denver if it holds.
Carolina is currently -3 so play will be on Houston if it holds.
Minnesota is currently -3 so play will be on Detroit if it holds.
Cincinnati is currently -3 so play will be on San Diego if it holds
I started a thread last year regarding home teams that have a closing line of -3 and it was fairly profitable. We all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field.
Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%} Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%} Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}"
Closing SBR lines are what count so be prepared to make bets 5-15 minutes before kickoff.
Week 1: 1-0 (SU and ATS)
Tampa (-3) so the play was on Tennessee
Week 2 Leans as of 9/16 12:50pm PST
KC is currently -3 so play will be on Denver if it holds.
Carolina is currently -3 so play will be on Houston if it holds.
Minnesota is currently -3 so play will be on Detroit if it holds.
Cincinnati is currently -3 so play will be on San Diego if it holds
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.