Divisional Sunday

Eagles -5.5 4 units 

I did buy a half point but I'm confident in this selection. The Eagles at home are going to be a totally different animal than Minnesota in Arizona. The last time they played Saquon set a franchise rushing record.

If they try to focus on stopping him, the Eagles unlike the Vikings have more than one great pass catching option.

And unlike the Vikings who had the 28th ranked pass d, the Eagles have the best pass defense in the NFL. Guys were so open last week it was pitch and catch for Stafford. And the Vikings never got traction, every drive was short. The Eagles are masters at extending drives between the run game and tush pushes.

The feel good story for the Rams is over. It's going to be Philly vs Washington for the SB and it's a great matchup because they give the Eagles trouble and snatched a win this season. The way the Skins are playing now I don't know could the Rams beat them, maybe if it was at home in LA that would be huge emotionally and 4th straight road game for Washington but sometimes teams can come out of nowhere and do it all on the road as dogs it has happened.

The Rams got 9 sacks last week that absolutely will not happen against the Philly offensive line plus they lead the league in rushing attempts.

I do think the line is pretty spot on that's why i bought that half point. I don't think the Rams are dead in the water but I don't think Philly got the 2 seed by accident they dominated not just the Rams but the Ravens too and most everbody they played. Unlike the Lions they aren't just a failure every year they've existed since Barry Sanders.

Capping the last game i made note the Rams have been either totally shut out or only scored a single field goal in 2 quarters 8 of their last 10 games and the one was Minnesota who they scored on a lot again last week. They are due in my mind to have a similar drought then playing vs this defense and a team that runs the ball so well, in the cold.

So i like the Under as well but I'm just taking the Birds to what they usually do and have done to the Rams already. The shoe is on the other foot this week for the Rams, fires or no fires, they dominated Minnesota this year and did so again, but this is the reverse it is a team that dominated them convincingly they have to play now, and who has a very efficient offense stocked full of weapons, to go along with the best pass defense in the league they are at least getting to the conference championship they might even get to the Super Bowl. If you look at the season as a whole there is no way you could conclude the Eagles are anything less than top 2 or 3 in the division and the Rams weren't on their level overall, decent but not great, definitely helped by the other teams in the division barely being 500 teams.

According to my sources in Philly, it's starting to snow right now. Generally the best running teams win in snow. The caveat is it blunts the speed of everyone and causes slips which can level the playing field negating the faster athletes advantages in speed and agility. But I have a feeling Saquon can run in snow. 

Ravens/Bills over 51.5

The Ravens are excellent in the red zone this year now they can hand off to Henry down there and their pass defense while improving down the stretch, I just think Buffalo can move the ball on them plus they get so many penalties that extend drives.

I lean to the Ravens as a side because I think Henry deserves a chance at the SB, but Buffalo boasts home field and the top turnover margin in the NFL. But the Ravens dominated them before and I think that counts for a lot in these playoff rematches. It will definitely be closer this time, and the Bills beat the Ravens while the Ravens usually come up short vs them and did so in week 1, but it was a toenail between them then and I think they get another crack.

"According to my sources in Philly, it's starting to snow right now. Generally the best running teams win in snow. The caveat is it blunts the speed of everyone and causes slips which can level the playing field negating the faster athletes advantages in speed and agility. But I have a feeling Saquon can run in snow." 

I would add one caveat to your prediction.

The smartest thing the Rams can do if it's snowing as predicted, is THROW THE BALL>  The offense has a great advantage when running there passing routes. They know where they are going, and can make the defense slip trying to adjust to there catches.  Rams have a much better passer in Stafford, and world class receivers.  

There is just something off with Hurts passing that lacks commitment recently.  They really need to get the running game going to assure success today. BOL with your pick NBL

Nice work NBL 

Whew. Buying it down saved me. I usually do it just cuz you can't cover past 5.5 in an OT game, even though playoffs OT is different and you can. All these missed PATs you can't take it for granted a TD 7 is any more esp in the snow