Divisional Round

I'm keeping it simple on Saturday and sticking with the top seeded teams with the major advantages of rest and home field.

Since the playoffs were expanded there has been an uptick in success for the lower seeded teams but the bye week 1 seeds have still gone 7-3 SU in that span. Before the expansion the 1 seeds were quite dominant going 14-6 in 20 games. There has only been one season in those games where both top seeds lost the divisional round, and only one season since the expansion that both top seeds lost.

There's plenty to talk about in these games but I'm a believer in just being like a computer and playing what poker players would call +EV situations, and that's what top seeds with rest are. However, I will write a bit about how i would cap the games normally too.

broncos ML

Basically what Bronco fans and backers are most worried about is Josh Allen 'going Superman' and winning this game by himself. And in fairness this season seems his best chance at getting a ring because all the other QBs left have little or no playoff experience and he has loads of it. There's no Mahomes or Burrow in his way.

But the team isn't as good as past teams, and the Bills have been a money burner in the playoffs more often than not. They do have a great pass defense but the run defense isn't good at all.

Denver has the perfect antidote to the Bills offense with their ferocious defense which is excellent agains the run. They're built to stop what the Bills do. Superman Josh has been sacked 41 times, almost twice as many times as Bo Nix.

People seem to rate Allen much higher than Nix, and yes he lacks playoff experience but he actually has only 10 yards less passing than Allen who has played one more game.

Now you can make a case that the Jags bear Denver and the Bills beat the Jags so they should beat the Broncos. But the Jags just don't have the juice to win playoff games they got that one crazy comeback win - against the Chargers. Who are so inept at keeping leads fans literally call blowing games 'Chargering' now. And the Jags played totally against what they had done all season. Led the league in picks and got zero, while Buffalo got two. Their record setting long range sniper kicker missed a huge FG to tie the game at halftime.

Buffalo barely beat the Jags when the Jags played below their usual level. The Broncos have a lot more toughness in my eyes a d I see Hufanga (huge pro bowl snub IMO) and that defense being a much tougher nut to crack. If Allen does it all on his own vs them, so be it, I'll tip my hat to him. But I see that defensive front as a bad matchup for a team that relies on running and running the QB.

The Broncos offense has stalled at times this season and looked bad even against the Jets in London. But they pulled out that game and I think pull this one out too. The Jags offense just couldn't execute they followed every good play with a bad play, Lawrence can't run and throw on the run like Bo Nix and i mean they're just the Jags, they never do anything right in playoffs no matter how good they look regular season.

That last drive you just knew Buffalo would score and win the game. The Jags rank 23rd in red zone defense TD%. Just below Buffalo at 22. The top red zone defense in the NFL is the Denver Broncos and that step up should be the difference on Saturday.

Seattle -7 5 units

This is my favorite play of the weekend. Ive been seeing quite a few posters on here being enticed by the generous plus points, with reasoning like the division opponents will play close, the playoff experience of Purdy vs Darnold etc. And they did split their games this season.

But I think the last game was much more indicative of the margin between these two teams.

I really think Seattle hasn't gotten enough credit for how good they've been on both sides of the ball and especially on defense.

Yards per completion on offense rank: 1st

Yards per completion allowed on defense rank: 1st

Rushing yards allowed rank: 3rd

Yards allowed per rush: 1st

3rd quarter points per game (IMO 3rd quarter is the most important so i look at that stat a lot when i cap: 1st

The 9ers have a good offense but the Seattle defense is built to stop them. It's actually really similar to the Denver Buffalo game IMO with Denver having the best sack percentage going against a team that relies heavily on Josh Allen. Ranking 1st in yards per completion means they don't give up big plays which is what SF relies on.

And again similar to the other game I feel like a lot of people like the Bills because they just watched them win and a lot of people like SF because they just watched them win, but their opponents were not good teams. These are now the elite teams of the conferences. The Eagles everyone knew all season had major problems on the offense. They have two really talented WRs and a RB you could rank anywhere from 1 to 5 and yet it just wasn't happening.

The Seahawks do not have that problem at all. It's night and day. JSN is absolutely beasting the league. They're explosive, and while they rank neck and neck with SF in yards per game, the 9ers defense ranks 20th in yards allowed. Worst of any playoff team with only Carolina and the Rams at 16 and 17 being in the bottom half of the league and you saw how they both gave up chunk plays and TDs. Seattle is 5th best in yards allowed and won't have to worry about Kittle. They can key on CMC.

And i think people forget the 9ers only barely won that game too, pulled out a trick play and the Eagles just like the Jags, just didn't have the juice.

Seattle's one big weakness is turnovers. 2nd most in the NFL. But SF doesn't generate takeaways, 24th ranked in that stat. None in the last 4 games including last week where they had 2 giveaways but the Eagles didn't do anything off them. They did win the first game by strip sacking Darnold. If they avoid those types of things happening I think they'll put up plenty of points and pull away from SF in the 2nd half.

Nice post! BOL!

@NutinButtLove

 Darnold oblique injury? Questionable? Couple of big hits?  Got em in teaser myself. Good stuff you put out. 

I never worry about guys marked questionable, they almost always play with that designation. Tom Brady used to pop up on injury reports in playoffs too it's probably mind games. How hurt could you get in practice with 2 weeks off when you're the QB and nobody can contact you?

NB 

1 seeds continue to be the best play you can make divisional round and yes i will pay myself on the pack for finding the right one to make the big 5 unit play on. Go me!

Anyone who took SF, I hope you take a good look at yourself and realize you know fk all about football haha

Sunday has much trickier games to cap and as I have my money made yesterday I'm just playing these very small, literally half unit plays so even if I lose both I'm up 5 units on the round.

The trickiest one is probably Houston vs New England. Drake Maye has been excellent and the Patriots now lead the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per completion (they overtook Seattle simply by virtue of the Hawks being a bit under their average yesterday even though they won in a blowout).

A cold weather snow game in New England is also one of the hardest challenges for any team to face. But is Drake Maye the next Brady? He might have to be because that Texans defense is excellent, easily top 3 along with Denver and Seattle. And a good defense can stop even the best QBs especially in the playoffs, where guys like Manning, Mahomes and even Brady had years where they were stymied by great defenses. He also has no playoff experience while Stroud actually has more than all the other AFC QBs combined and a 3-2 record including a game he fumbled 3 times in, and the game last week he also made some mistakes. But the defense has made up for it every time.

A scary stat is the Texans being 0-6 in the divisional round but they did get their first franchise road playoff win last week. Maybe the tide has turned and they're due a divisional win.

If it's snowing I often favor the better running team which is New England. However the last two times I did that was with Buffalo and they got basted by Burrow so it doesn't always work. And I wouldn't want to rely on the run vs the Texans as they rank 2nd vs the run and have bottled up pretty much every running back they have faced this year, allowed only 63 yards last week. If they lose this game it's not going to be because they get ran all over, it's going to have to be Drake Maye with his zero playoff experience vs a nasty defense that counters Mayes top comp % with the 3rd least completion % allowed.

Surprisingly, while NE actually allows less passing yards they rank all the way down at 25th in % allowed, because they have the 3rd least yards per completion allowed.

So actually it may not be Maye that wins the game for NE it could be their underrated defense who is sick of hearing about the Texans defense. But one weakness in their defense is the red zone where they rank 27th in TD% allowed. Which is key because the Texans red zone offense isn't good. new England really cleaned this up recently allowing a stellar 14% last 3 games but they played Miami the Jets and Chargers who all stink.

Scouring stats didn't turn up much more for this game so I use some of my other usual parameters and that brought me to look at road and home records. I generally consider a good road record to be the mark of a really good team.

And Houston only lost 3 road games this year, to the Rams, Seahawks and Jags who all made the playoffs, 2 won their division, one is the top seed and the other was the SB favorite for much of the year and has the likely MVP.

Looking at New England's home record is where it gets really interesting. They only lost 3 but did not beat a single playoff team at home, the 3 losses were to Pitt, Buffalo and LV of all teams. Their schedule in general was very weak.

This angle is what has led me to pick the Texans for a small play in a tight contest. You can probably give the coaching edge to Vrabel as I'm not high on Ryans but he obviously knows how to construct a good defense and he and Stroud have won playoff games. I also like the fact they have a very solid kicker who can hit from long range. I think it's very possible that a great defense shows that this rejuvenated Pats team has a ways to go before they are on the level of the Brady/Vinatieri teams and maybe the snow memories of this year are of the other side hitting one to eliminate you. It's actually tempting to sprinkle something on the money line, usually playoff games the SU and ATS winner are the same side, but with points at a premium I'll gladly take 3.5 because it is a road playoff game and maybe Maye really is him. Like I said he will have to be.

One thing I forgot to mention is Nico being out, which I shouldn't have because that is a big reason it's only a small play too. But they have decent depth there even though the guys are young. It won't be easy but I think the Texans can get it done.

I'll try not to write a novel on this next game lol but it's also a tight contest where the stats don't turn up too many major advantages. I love Chicago's number 1 ranking in takeaways and giveaways but the Rams are 5th and 7th in those stats so not exactly chopped liver.

I do think Sean McVay is an overrated coach who often does things that piss me off but the fact remains he has a past SB winner likely 2025 MVP and lots more playoff experience than the QB and coach on the other side, they were 2nd place in what is easily the best division and despite slipping towards the tail end of the season and ruining a great start to barely escape with a win and no cover vs the lowly NFC South winners, I will side with them here. For whatever reason the Rams struggled with the NFC South i dunno why.

But I said after last week watch they play crappy this week and then play great next week and I'm gonna stick with that. Tbh I feel like Chicago's rise this season was mainly propelled by breaking the Packers hoodoo which only came after Rodgers left. Now they have another HOF QB coming in, it's not Jordan Love. For most of the season Stafford has avoided turnovers and he has such a talented WR core I think it's a good matchup with Chicago's 27th ranked yards per completion allowed. The Rams themselves have given up chunks lately but overall on the season ranked 14th in that stat.

Their special teams is a concern for sure. It cost them a game vs Philly and they had a punt blocked last week too. Chicago is good but the Rams are just better. Top yards per game offense. 16th on defense, not stellar but Chicago is 29th.

I guess I kinda feel like today will sort of solidify the MVP outcome (tho playoffs aren't included in voting) where Maye will look bad and Stafford will look good. The defenses they match up with certainly allow for that to happen. Too bad for me as I foolishly took a future on Maye to win it and I still think he should because of his rush yards and the fact he has a lot less star power household names to throw to, but I should have known the vet would get it.

I also just have always felt the NFC title would come down to another Rams Hawks matchup, they were clearly the best two NFC teams all year in my eyes and if and when they play I probably won't even bet it because so many of their games come down to a FG over the years and this year there were only 3 points difference in their 2 games.

Won't that make for an especially intriguing NFC title game? Wouldn't the NFL love that? The decorated champion vet vs the journeyman who suddenly took the league by storm? Come on, you know that's gonna be the story this week. Da Bears to da bowl? I think not. Beating the Packers was their super bowl. Ben Johnson's lack of class doesn't play out as well in the media let's have the good looking coach and QB with the big lovely family in there. Caleb Williams is gonna go the same way as all the QBs from the University of Spoiled Children: one and done in the playoffs is the best they can do.

Excellent write ups and I agree with most of what you said. I took Fairbairn over 1.5 fg's cause of your comment about the red zones. The snow/cold may play a role with the ball being harder but if they are kicking 30 yard fg's, then bairn can make it. It will be Hawks vs Lambs next week. I have a houston future to win SB so I may hedge with NE winning today but its a toss up. Good luck and lets have a great NFL Sunday!