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***Could There Be Some Value In The Chiefs This Week..?***

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Legend
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Posted: #26
Past stats are not going to magically help this donkey team play good though
 
Rookie
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Posted: #27
The teams that do the worst at the start of the NFL season usually are the best bets in the second half of the season. The Chargers were 0-3 to start off last year, and they covered the last 6 games of the year and both playoff games (8 straight covers). Teams that are overrated and put full force efforts into the first half of the season tend to fall from grace in the second half, when it really counts. The Cowboys were the talk of the town last year in the start of 07. We all know what happened there.
All in all, watch the worst teams continue to dissapoint for the next few weeks, then watch everything shift midseason. Lots of underdog covers and SU's coming. BE PATIENT!
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by TheBronxBomber:

We all know how bad they chiefs have looked this year. There is no debating the problems they have at QB. There is no defending Herm Edwards. Being from NY I saw him throw away many victories with his conservative, close to the vest style of play calling. Sometimes that works out to a bettors advantage because he keeps it just close enough like he did in New England. Also, his putrid inability to manage the clock and his timeouts at the end of the games has cost his teams immeasurably year after year. On the other sideline you have the exact opposite. Shannahan is the type of coach that was aggressive enough to run a 2 point conversion for the win. He doesnt sit on leads so if your looking for him to run it up. He will try if given the chance. However, that sometimes kicks you in the ass, like it did against New Orleans last week. More often than not it doesnt translate into more Ats wins. Look at Denvers Numbers the last 3 years.

  • All games 11-24
  • Road games 6-11
  • As a favorite 6-17
  • In September 2-8
  • In the division 3-11

Wow, thats not very promising. Lets take a closer look at the numbers on KC.

  • All Games 16-19
  • As an Underdog 11-11
  • At Home 6-10 but 9-10 Straight up ( a little better)
  • In September 4-4
  • in the Division 6-7

These numbers are not as bad as I thought they would be considering.

Now, onto some of the many angles I look at every week.

Teams coming off back to back games scoring 30+ points but not winning by more than 7 in either are horrible. This is makes alot of sense because it shows you score at will, but dont care about defense, thus keeping teams in the game.

ATS record: 4 -10 -2 ( 28.6% )
Upcoming qualifying games
Date Matchup Final Score ATS Outcome
Sep 28 2008 Denver Broncos -10 @ Kansas City Chiefs TBD TBD

ATS record: 4 -10 -2 ( 28.6% )

Upcoming qualifying games
Date Matchup Final Score ATS Outcome
Sep 28 2008 Denver Broncos -9 @ Kansas City Chiefs TBD TBD
Previous qualifying games
Date Matchup Final Score ATS Outcome
Sep 27 1998 Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams -3 Cardinals 20-17 No cover
Sep 26 1999 New York Giants @ New England Patriots -6 Patriots 16-14 No cover
Oct 24 1999 Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers -4½ Lions 24-9 No cover
Oct 24 1999 Philadelphia Eagles @ Miami Dolphins -9 Dolphins 16-13 No cover
Sep 17 2000 San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams -17 Rams 41-24 Push
Nov 4 2001 Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers -8½ 49ers 21-13 No cover
Sep 22 2002 Buffalo Bills +7½ @ Denver Broncos Broncos 28-23 COVER
Oct 13 2002 Buffalo Bills -7 @ Houston Texans Bills 31-24 Push
Oct 27 2002 Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs +2½ Chiefs 20-10 COVER
Dec 27 2003 Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers -2½ Seahawks 24-17 No cover
Nov 7 2004 New Orleans Saints +6½ @ San Diego Chargers Chargers 43-17 No cover
Nov 14 2004 Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts -8½ Colts 49-14 COVER
Dec 25 2004 Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans +4 Broncos 37-16 No cover
Jan 2 2005 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders +2½ Jaguars 13-6 No cover
Nov 27 2005 Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 Bears 13-10 No cover
Oct 8 2006 Washington Redskins @ New York Giants -5½ Giants 19-3 COVER


Another Angle I use is simple. Home dogs of 7.5 or more at hitting 60% since 1998.

65-44-3 ats 59.6% 18-10 the from 2006-present
2 Weeks agao this angle lost on the giants/rams game as the Giants covered the high road number. I have every game and score for those as well, if anyone was interested.

Granted your stuck playing some shitty teams. But in the long run you will make money.

I will be back later in the week with more on this game.

I sort of agree with Chez on this one and this would be a better play in the second half of the year.

Great stats and here is a really bad one for you. after week 3, in the last two years when there is a match up of a top 5 team in yards/pt verse a bottom 5 td/pt team.  The top 5 team is 11-4 ATS.

 
Captain
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Posted: #29
theres more value in vhs returning to video stores than chiefs winning
 
Prospect
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by brewster:

BB:  you have a stat that shows home dogs getting >7.5 are 60% over last 10 years.  Do you know if it makes a difference if it's a division game?  Thanks


Its actually very good..
In  the example year I gave everyone there were 4 divisional games that fell into this mode.  they went 4-0 ATS
 
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Posted: #31
yes there is actually a lot of value on them especially at home
 
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Posted: #32
my big play this wk.....denver 1h just ck the numbers......
 
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Posted: #33
I will fade THE CHIEFS until they decide to GET a QB that can play at NCAA level NOT high scholl school yard level !
 
OR is it numb nuts HC Edwards !
 
BAD TEAMS FIND WAYS TO LOSE GOOD teams find ways TO win !
 
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Posted: #34
I really feel this is a good play as I mentioned in response to Stephen Nover's article from Monday for week 4. I'm sitting on this until it hits 10, probably gameday, and if for some reason it doesn't, I'll take the 9, 9.5. If you play logic week in and week out, Vegas will eat your lunch. You have to take some chances. K.C. is certainly no worse than Miami was going into the N.E. game. Each year, a bad team will beat a good team on more than one occasion. I'm not saying K.C. is going to win, but with Huard, an experienced QB, playing relatively mistake free, conservatively, and running L.J., I think he'll have a good game, and keep Denver's high powered "O" off the field, this will be a competitive game. Denver's "D'' has certainly failed to impress early on, albeit against superior offensive competition. HTU'S ARE STILL A SOLID PLAY IN THE NFL! Factor in homefield, division game, professional pride, Denver's fortuitous homefield luck, there is the potential for an upset, as there ALWAYS is in the NFL. That's why they play the game. Bronxbomber, thanks for your info,TampaTony, down here with ya', how 'bout them RAYZ'!!! Also, looking at S.F. and points, like the Saints but they are really banged up, this is going to be a good football game,S.F. catching them at the right time, and looking at Carolina vs. Atlanta, I think this game is going to be eerily similar to Atlanta's game against the Buc's, historically CAR hasn't been a good HT FAV', but their "d" will shine, they'll run the ball, Delhomme will make the necessary throws, and Matt Ryan's going to need a serious hot tub on Monday. Panthers should roll easily here. Best of luck to all!!!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
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Posted: #35
Not a chance in hell they just lost to the Raiders at home.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by DC@510:

Not a chance in hell they just lost to the Raiders at home.


I havent decided weather to pull the trigger on them or not but answer me this.  There are much smarter people than you, that create lines for a living.  They arent always right, but dont you think they would make the line 17 if they thought this was as easy a play as you do DC????
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
WINNER...

OUTRIGHT...

NEED I SAY MORE...????
 
Captain
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Posted: #38
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #39
WHOO HOOO!!!!
 
Great win for the Chiefs!!!
 
Kansas City Chiefsssssss
 
Fun game to watch to!!!!
 
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