YTD 12-9
Commanders +2.5 (at NY Giants) are theoretically a play. The look-ahead line was -2.5, and Zach Ertz's season-ending injury is only part of the reason. I don't think the dropoff to Mariota justifies that kind of swing.
I'm going to wait on this one. As I was crunching my numbers, I was really struck by something we all know but don't give a lot of thought to...how slight the margin is between winning and losing when you bet the NFL. A 12-9 record is 57%; I've gone 10-6 this year with this strategy (62%). I was initially inclined to not play Washington here because the situation in my database is really marginal. Teams in their situation, as dogs on the road after getting waxed on the road, are around .500, although pretty good in December. When you focus closer (only dogs below a field goal, for example), you end up with records like 6-5. A 6-5 record is 54.5%! It's kind of nuts.
Do teams pack it in? Tank? I think it's obvious they don't. Professional athletes always have something to play for. You're talking about a matchup here where both teams' seasons went south pretty quickly. Giants swept their preseason games in huge fashion and then dropped straight into the toilet. Commanders have now lost 8 straight. It's not like this particular loss hurts more for a team that went to the NFC championship game last year.
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