Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: I believe the lines maker is making this line+7 based upon 2014 games and that’s not the case here. Washington didn’t regress and may have improved with the addiction of Debo Samuel’s but the Giants sure closed the gap in the off-season. The data is support enough for me. Thanks for your observations, there is merit in much of it BUT where we differ greatly is the HFA of a week 1 DIVISIONAL game. This is at least worth double the standard value imo. We shall see, backing the Giants with a washed Wilson and no running game is as you say, a possible trip to the cemetery. Neither ROAD DOG can run the ball, not a formula for SU ROAD upsets...............................gl jowchoo I see your saying Phil and Was are your anchors and above your saying that there's no formula for S/U road and Spottie bringing up D teasers -6 ats so my ? is are we looking at two different things and Spottie I ask you this, why not just do ( team=Bears and season>=2015 and week=1) and you can see the Bears are 7-3 70% with +6 on the teasers but you would be right ats the last 7 years if you look at atsr as this year would be a loss, it's been a W,L,W,L,W,L,W before you get two W in a row. It almost looks like people are looking at two different things. One seting up a teaser with a S/U and the other looking at ats. imo , But I was leaning Spottie's way so far in week 1 with 2 games Dall and NY if thats the way your leaning. Then on the other hand jowchoo was talking about HFA wk 1 DIV game, everyone has a formula I guess,
too much info and questions and please don’t abbreviate some of the terms because A can mean average and A can mean away so I am confused here. I posted a season wins query in indigos thread maybe that helps.
the bottom line to the data I searched is more teams that had a season wins total of <6 followed by a season wins total>10 24 teams regressed back to under 10 wins and only 6 stay at 10 or more.
so one can search :
I’m using -6 here to keep it in points but multiple favorite lines could be substituted. In this case I would use <-3 to make it more fair and also >-8.
DIV and H and line <-6 and tppS(W)<6 and toS(W)>10
from that look at the ats results and how many stayed within the extra 6 points that the teaser gives. It’s gotta be at least 65% to break even and I would say untouchable unless it’s over 75%.
in the cases I used it fails miserably. I. His cases it’s about 75%.
Then I went a step further and took a look at the previous seasons strength of schedule and from that was a wide eyed look at how easy Washington schedule was. Then added to that did these teams eeek 1 opponents improve in the off season. Because just looking at the team name Giants from 2024 bettors would puke to bet that team again
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Quote Originally Posted by hoody:
Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: I believe the lines maker is making this line+7 based upon 2014 games and that’s not the case here. Washington didn’t regress and may have improved with the addiction of Debo Samuel’s but the Giants sure closed the gap in the off-season. The data is support enough for me. Thanks for your observations, there is merit in much of it BUT where we differ greatly is the HFA of a week 1 DIVISIONAL game. This is at least worth double the standard value imo. We shall see, backing the Giants with a washed Wilson and no running game is as you say, a possible trip to the cemetery. Neither ROAD DOG can run the ball, not a formula for SU ROAD upsets...............................gl jowchoo I see your saying Phil and Was are your anchors and above your saying that there's no formula for S/U road and Spottie bringing up D teasers -6 ats so my ? is are we looking at two different things and Spottie I ask you this, why not just do ( team=Bears and season>=2015 and week=1) and you can see the Bears are 7-3 70% with +6 on the teasers but you would be right ats the last 7 years if you look at atsr as this year would be a loss, it's been a W,L,W,L,W,L,W before you get two W in a row. It almost looks like people are looking at two different things. One seting up a teaser with a S/U and the other looking at ats. imo , But I was leaning Spottie's way so far in week 1 with 2 games Dall and NY if thats the way your leaning. Then on the other hand jowchoo was talking about HFA wk 1 DIV game, everyone has a formula I guess,
too much info and questions and please don’t abbreviate some of the terms because A can mean average and A can mean away so I am confused here. I posted a season wins query in indigos thread maybe that helps.
the bottom line to the data I searched is more teams that had a season wins total of <6 followed by a season wins total>10 24 teams regressed back to under 10 wins and only 6 stay at 10 or more.
so one can search :
I’m using -6 here to keep it in points but multiple favorite lines could be substituted. In this case I would use <-3 to make it more fair and also >-8.
DIV and H and line <-6 and tppS(W)<6 and toS(W)>10
from that look at the ats results and how many stayed within the extra 6 points that the teaser gives. It’s gotta be at least 65% to break even and I would say untouchable unless it’s over 75%.
in the cases I used it fails miserably. I. His cases it’s about 75%.
Then I went a step further and took a look at the previous seasons strength of schedule and from that was a wide eyed look at how easy Washington schedule was. Then added to that did these teams eeek 1 opponents improve in the off season. Because just looking at the team name Giants from 2024 bettors would puke to bet that team again
2025 Giants will improve massively. I predict the moneyline over the commanderSkins in week one. points on that are the Giants being sble to control the ball gain first downs and not make turnovers at QB. They drafted Scattaboo the all American that carried ASU to the bracket and Russell Wilson that will manage the game and protect the ball.
it’s only one game, we’ll see. No way I’m betting on the commanderSkins looking back at their 2024 season. They look and appear way better than they are. Winning 2 playoff games against the Lions and Buccaneeers isn’t beating a team with a rich winning playoff tradition.
just the way I see it.
I may come across hateful and combative but I am here putting in effort to show both sides.
take a look at my post in indigos season wins thread.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
2025 Giants will improve massively. I predict the moneyline over the commanderSkins in week one. points on that are the Giants being sble to control the ball gain first downs and not make turnovers at QB. They drafted Scattaboo the all American that carried ASU to the bracket and Russell Wilson that will manage the game and protect the ball.
it’s only one game, we’ll see. No way I’m betting on the commanderSkins looking back at their 2024 season. They look and appear way better than they are. Winning 2 playoff games against the Lions and Buccaneeers isn’t beating a team with a rich winning playoff tradition.
just the way I see it.
I may come across hateful and combative but I am here putting in effort to show both sides.
take a look at my post in indigos season wins thread.
Russell Wilson people are not in favor of. That’s fine surely he isn’t the superstar runner he once was but he still made the playoffs with a mediocre Steels team last season. Not many TDs but not many turnovers. Allowing the Running game and defense to win 10 of 17 games. Just not enough talent or luck to elevate further.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Russell Wilson people are not in favor of. That’s fine surely he isn’t the superstar runner he once was but he still made the playoffs with a mediocre Steels team last season. Not many TDs but not many turnovers. Allowing the Running game and defense to win 10 of 17 games. Just not enough talent or luck to elevate further.
Commanderskins look at the starting point 3 seasons ago. 2 seasons ago and the win totals in each of these seasons then last years weaker opponents ents and the Fact the the Giants sont have an inept Qb that can and will get the WR super talented Ted superstar the ball. Giants will have big plays that didn’t appear last year. The Giants won’t be turning the ball over as much and finally the Giants will attain the first downs more often so the defense doesn’t have to work as hard
The Cowboys I don’t feel improved significantly but after what everyone saw the Eagles accomplish in the post season in 2024 I am assuming a few extra points are added here. I think I already went over this. Double check it if you wish
as far as teasers go I’m am not a teaser guy but if I was I’m looking at teaser fails and positive teaser success’
day of the week. Home favorites. Division games. I have listed multiple queries and of course I tryed to find the queries to support my logic. So many queries available to debunk my findings as well. It is what it is.
Hiants are better than2924 and no way the Eagles sustain what the did in the post season. Give me both +7 and I predict one of these dogs to win.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
My points on these teams regardless of the data :
Commanderskins look at the starting point 3 seasons ago. 2 seasons ago and the win totals in each of these seasons then last years weaker opponents ents and the Fact the the Giants sont have an inept Qb that can and will get the WR super talented Ted superstar the ball. Giants will have big plays that didn’t appear last year. The Giants won’t be turning the ball over as much and finally the Giants will attain the first downs more often so the defense doesn’t have to work as hard
The Cowboys I don’t feel improved significantly but after what everyone saw the Eagles accomplish in the post season in 2024 I am assuming a few extra points are added here. I think I already went over this. Double check it if you wish
as far as teasers go I’m am not a teaser guy but if I was I’m looking at teaser fails and positive teaser success’
day of the week. Home favorites. Division games. I have listed multiple queries and of course I tryed to find the queries to support my logic. So many queries available to debunk my findings as well. It is what it is.
Hiants are better than2924 and no way the Eagles sustain what the did in the post season. Give me both +7 and I predict one of these dogs to win.
I just looked over defensive stats on the CommanderSkins 2024 season
3rd last in rushing yards average agains and 3rd best in passing yards against. So the quarterbacks didn’t excel but if you look at half the qbs they faced? Yikes. So if their opponents qbs will be more difficult that could be a problem and in the off season they didn’t do a lot to improve the run defense. A few moves but some of those players are old.
The commanderSkins need to give this young g talented opportunities and I don’t know if their more elevated schedule will be congruent with that.
CommanderSkins better stop the run, that’s for sure. Russell Wilson can get first downs when needed and Scattaboo also will improve the Giants antrack. If Scattaboo breaks out? that’s a 1, 2 punch with one of these best WRs in Nabers.
AD and DIV and points>20 and line>3
yea this is what I’m seeing here. Stop the run or death
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
I just looked over defensive stats on the CommanderSkins 2024 season
3rd last in rushing yards average agains and 3rd best in passing yards against. So the quarterbacks didn’t excel but if you look at half the qbs they faced? Yikes. So if their opponents qbs will be more difficult that could be a problem and in the off season they didn’t do a lot to improve the run defense. A few moves but some of those players are old.
The commanderSkins need to give this young g talented opportunities and I don’t know if their more elevated schedule will be congruent with that.
CommanderSkins better stop the run, that’s for sure. Russell Wilson can get first downs when needed and Scattaboo also will improve the Giants antrack. If Scattaboo breaks out? that’s a 1, 2 punch with one of these best WRs in Nabers.
AD and DIV and points>20 and line>3
yea this is what I’m seeing here. Stop the run or death
Clearly they made strides to address their defensive talents. The got Fowler who I love but he is older, drafted 3rd 2015 and 2017 3rd overall pick DT Solomon Thomas. Dallas has huge amounts of money and they do get older experienced talented guys. It clearly looks as though they know to win the division they have to limit Philly running attack.
Let’s face it Philly did dominate Dallas last season but let’s see if their off season changes Dallas made can impact the score enough. Clearly these are high motor and high skilled guys that just the attitude they bring can change things around but the problem is Philly is Philly. The best the Cowboys can do here in my opinion is cover.
The are going to need a big offensive day to get the job done here. If the old talented addition play well it’s should’ve in the early weeks. Better weather and less bumps and bruises. Cowboys were in the middle of the pack last season in offensive points scored but bottom defensive run teams don’t get as many opportunities to score. Add in the addition of Sanders as a running back they should be able to keep this old but talented defense off the field more.
Phill surely wins this but not by last year blowout scores.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Looking at the Dallas Cowboys 2024 to now.
Clearly they made strides to address their defensive talents. The got Fowler who I love but he is older, drafted 3rd 2015 and 2017 3rd overall pick DT Solomon Thomas. Dallas has huge amounts of money and they do get older experienced talented guys. It clearly looks as though they know to win the division they have to limit Philly running attack.
Let’s face it Philly did dominate Dallas last season but let’s see if their off season changes Dallas made can impact the score enough. Clearly these are high motor and high skilled guys that just the attitude they bring can change things around but the problem is Philly is Philly. The best the Cowboys can do here in my opinion is cover.
The are going to need a big offensive day to get the job done here. If the old talented addition play well it’s should’ve in the early weeks. Better weather and less bumps and bruises. Cowboys were in the middle of the pack last season in offensive points scored but bottom defensive run teams don’t get as many opportunities to score. Add in the addition of Sanders as a running back they should be able to keep this old but talented defense off the field more.
Phill surely wins this but not by last year blowout scores.
In the middle weeks after the season has started these teams don’t improve the roster and talent. In week one ? The good teams with money do. Jerry won’t allow getting dominate year after year by a division foe.
Dallas brought in some game changers. As long as they healthy they going to find a way to flip this script.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
In the middle weeks after the season has started these teams don’t improve the roster and talent. In week one ? The good teams with money do. Jerry won’t allow getting dominate year after year by a division foe.
Dallas brought in some game changers. As long as they healthy they going to find a way to flip this script.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
