Arrows for your handicapping quiver going forward

season=2024 and op:RFD<5 and total<44.5 and op:U and p:O and week<18....(16-1)OU   9.9 pts

Top totals query !!!

season=2024 and op:rushes<16 and p:L and total>40....(11-2) OU

season=2024 and op:rushes<16 and p:L and total>37.5 and week<16...(9-2) ATS

season=2024 and op:L and AD and n:F and week<16 and line>2.5.....(10-2) ATS   8.7 pts

season=2024 and op:L and AD and n:F and week<16 and line>2.5 and total>41.........(8-1)  OU  12.5 pts

season>=2023 and p:margin>14 and op:margin<0 and F and n:D and on:D and week>5.....(5-0) ATS     (5-0) OU

season>=2023 and p:FL and p:line<-7 and F and on:F........(8-0) ATS by 11.1 pts

This is a nice query.

season>=2023 and p:line<-7 and F and op:AL and line>-11.5.....(14-3) ATS by 7.3 pts

HF and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Eagles and 35.5<total<48

(9-1) SU and (9-1) OU

HF and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Eagles

Since 2021 the Eagles are (12-1) SU winning by 11.1 pts.

This will be one of my anchors in the teaser model.

HD and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Bears and 47.5>total>39.5

(1-6) UN ....avg 44 pts..............will tease this to the UNDER

AF and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Fortyniners and total>42.5

(7-0) OV....45.5 pts......................will tease this to the OVER.

Thanks buddy

season>=2023 and DIV and FH and -7<=line and line<=-6 and total>39

(12-1) SU

My anchors for week 1:

PHILLY, WASHINGTON

if you keep counting on one or 2 games to carry all your teasers, beware of all queries. 

week 1 all seasons all lines 

division = o:division and FH and total>39 and week = 1 and tpS(playoffs)>2

Duly noted, but 6 plays in 19 years is IRRELEVENT versus a two year (12-1) query over the last two years. We shall see.................gl.

When it comes to your queries I can’t argue your success. 

I do feel like since you are playing 2 successful playoff teams from the previous season might possibly give your bets some difficulty.  Did you search previous playoff teams? 

I think I saw the one loss was a playoff favorite team from the previous season.  On the other hand,  That  was a week 11 game.  Maybe insignificant in week 1.  

I am adding additional emphasis on the opening season home divisional tilt, maybe home field advantage is double what

the pundits think.

@jowchoo

I place playoff teams, that killed the post season scoring tons of points in last seasons playoff games, in regression the next season.  I did the back test without a query.  I wouldn’t touch Philly for that reason.  Commanders are more traditional playoff regression team.  After the season the Giants had this will be ats clash of reversals.  

good luck we just see things differently

youre moneyline parlay, with the rest of your teasers probably work out.  To me I see these as 50-50.  Week 1 should be fun.  

Commanders played 5 playoff teams in the regular season in 2024 1-4 SU in those games.

 The 2 playoff wins were 10-7 Tampa and the reason Tampas record was this good was their division opponents.  
The Lions that was a high quality win but the line at +8 indicates how the lines maker  evaluated the Commanders.  

The Commanders played  4-13 schedule in 2024 because that is their 2023 season record.  

The Commanders played 

Tennessee 3-14 

NYG two times 3-14 

Cleveland 3-14 

Bears 5-12

Carolina 5-12 

6 of their games against this garbage.  

They got a surge from the rookie qb that gained a lot of momentum playing the scrap teams they played.  They could control the ball and play successful football.  

They are playing the Giants so the lines maker evaluation makes sense. I’ll tell you this.  The Giants got a huge QB upgrade because they had garbage last year.  Yes Russ Wilson is not the running star he was  in the past.  He still took the Steelers to the playoffs last season.  He is a Vet and game manager and doesn’t make a lot of big mistakes to lose games.  Last season that’s exactly what the Giants did.  

Russell Wilson just got a huge upgrade in WRs talent and can expose defenses.  If you look back at Washington season I think it’s very possible that their record won’t come close to 2024 and last seasons excellence will get exposed. 

I didn’t check but you might want to look into how the Commander did against good passing teams. Coming off a 4-13  2023 and last years easy schedule that would be a concern.  The Giants were lousy in 2024 but just the fact the Qb is a playoff experienced talent there no way they look anywhere near as bad in 2025 assuming Russell Wilson plays the whole game.  

In the off season the Commander's bolstered the offensive line with Tunsil and a 1 st round draft of an Oregon lineman.  Additionally signed Debo Samuel which will add some big play potential.  

My overall out look for Washington will be overs because I don’t believe defensively they will be a playoff type team. If Daniels plays to his 2024 even against the more difficult schedule they can still score points.  In 2024 Washington a lot of their regular season opponents can’t say they had good offenses.  

Washington probably should wins unless Russell Wilson has a big day.  

The giants big draft was a stud pass rusher and they signed 2 guys to big deals in the secondary.  The Giants should be able to have more offensive time of  possession.  Also have more explosive offensive plays, additionally be able to make more plays on defense.  Season outlook for the Giants and Commanders both .500 because the commanders exposed the weaker schedule in 2024.  And the giants schedule will be of a team with after a3 win season.  

The fact that Russell Wilson doesn’t make big mistakes,  has A stud Wr in Nabers 

we will see I’m on the Giants *7 with an experienced QB and should be much improved squad. 

tppS(W)<7 and tpS(playoffs)>0 and opS(W)<5 and HF and line>-10 and tpS(W)>9 and week<17

I believe the lines maker is making this line+7 based upon 2014 games and that’s not the case here.  Washington didn’t regress and may have improved with the addiction of Debo Samuel’s but the Giants sure closed the gap in the off-season. 

The data is support enough for me. 

Thanks for your observations, there is merit in much of it BUT where we differ greatly is the HFA of a week 1 DIVISIONAL game.

This is at least worth double the standard value imo. We shall see, backing the Giants with a washed Wilson and no running game is as

you say, a possible trip to the cemetery. Neither ROAD DOG can run the ball, not a formula for SU  ROAD upsets...............................gl

The Giants run game last season was so poor because they had no passing game now they draft a guy that carried the team to the big 12 championship and covered against Texas in the CFB playoffs..  Giants are much more balanced in just one offseason 

Watch the Eagles choke after so many points scored in last season post season.  

Youre ignoring a lot of things here in my opinion.

head to head spreads vs teasers Im pretty sure im 2-0 on these.  One of these dogs will win the game 

gl 

Check these out as you must be aware of the improvements and reversal opportunities.  I see a lot more parody in the bottom teams this season.

Panthers

Jaguars

Browns

Giants 

Bears 

a few more qualify on my list

A lot of these teams as dogs did horrible last season in teasers.  

season=2024 and D and ats margin<-6 (teasers data) and t:team

jowchoo I see your saying Phil and Was are your anchors and above your saying that there's no formula for S/U road and Spottie bringing up D teasers -6 ats so my ? is are we looking at two different things and Spottie I ask you this, why not just do ( team=Bears and season>=2015 and week=1) and you can see the Bears are 7-3 70% with +6 on  the teasers but you would be right ats the last 7 years if you look at atsr as this year would be a loss, it's been a W,L,W,L,W,L,W before you get two W in a row. It almost looks like people are looking at two different things. One seting up a teaser with a S/U and the other looking at ats.  imo , But I was leaning Spottie's way so far in week 1 with 2 games Dall and NY if thats the way your leaning. Then on the other hand jowchoo was talking about HFA wk 1 DIV game, everyone has a formula I guess,