Inertia and Tempo numbers will be coming later on in the week . If you dont know what the inertia and tempo metrics , search keyword inertia in the subject line .
I want to start off this thread with Value Ratings , which I got from the book GET IN AND WIN by William Hall III . I will also be posting score projections using his score sheet method . I also find his margin of safety bet table worth consideration .
With the Value Rating System , each team is assigned a value from 113 to 87 , and you take the difference as point margin . This is the first time I am doing this , and I think it is an interesting thing to consider . I took the power ranking average of each team from Massey , Saragrin , and Covers . I only had to move a couple of teams around , as all three of those ranking methods had teams in the same general area .
Inertia and Tempo numbers will be coming later on in the week . If you dont know what the inertia and tempo metrics , search keyword inertia in the subject line .
I want to start off this thread with Value Ratings , which I got from the book GET IN AND WIN by William Hall III . I will also be posting score projections using his score sheet method . I also find his margin of safety bet table worth consideration .
With the Value Rating System , each team is assigned a value from 113 to 87 , and you take the difference as point margin . This is the first time I am doing this , and I think it is an interesting thing to consider . I took the power ranking average of each team from Massey , Saragrin , and Covers . I only had to move a couple of teams around , as all three of those ranking methods had teams in the same general area .
This is the value rating projection and score sheet for each potential game that I select . For the score sheet I used std and last 3 performance numbers in the score sheet formulas .
For the value ratings , the Redskins have a vr of 96 , and the Vikings have a vr of 91 . After factoring in home field , the Redskins have a potential of winning by at least 2 points ( 96 - 91 - 3 ) .
Right now this is for info and monitoring purposes .
Using the score sheet formula , the projected score is Redskins 21 Vikings 12
A score of Washington 21 Minnesota 13 sounds reasonable . The VR and projected score both have Washington winning . At the time of this post , Covers has the line Redskins Vikings + 2.5 . So is it reasonable that Washington can beat the Vikings by a field goal ? I say yes .
I am surprised the line is that small , as I would have guessed Redskins by at least 4 points .
In a future post I hope to have the greenlight letter grade matchup for this selection , along the bet margin of safety percentage .
This is the value rating projection and score sheet for each potential game that I select . For the score sheet I used std and last 3 performance numbers in the score sheet formulas .
For the value ratings , the Redskins have a vr of 96 , and the Vikings have a vr of 91 . After factoring in home field , the Redskins have a potential of winning by at least 2 points ( 96 - 91 - 3 ) .
Right now this is for info and monitoring purposes .
Using the score sheet formula , the projected score is Redskins 21 Vikings 12
A score of Washington 21 Minnesota 13 sounds reasonable . The VR and projected score both have Washington winning . At the time of this post , Covers has the line Redskins Vikings + 2.5 . So is it reasonable that Washington can beat the Vikings by a field goal ? I say yes .
I am surprised the line is that small , as I would have guessed Redskins by at least 4 points .
In a future post I hope to have the greenlight letter grade matchup for this selection , along the bet margin of safety percentage .
Seahawks Falcons + 6 The Seahawks have a value rating of 110 , and the Falcons have a vr of 94 . So vr is indicating a potential margrin of victory of at least 13 points ( 110 - 94 - 3 ) .
The projected score is Seattle 19 Atlanta 14 . Seahawks 20 Falcons 14 sounds like a reasonable score .
Seahawks Falcons + 6 The Seahawks have a value rating of 110 , and the Falcons have a vr of 94 . So vr is indicating a potential margrin of victory of at least 13 points ( 110 - 94 - 3 ) .
The projected score is Seattle 19 Atlanta 14 . Seahawks 20 Falcons 14 sounds like a reasonable score .
The Bills have a vr of 95 , and the Steelers have a vr of 94 , which indicates the Steelers winning by at least 2 points .
The projected score is Bills 16 Steelers 14 . Hmmm so a game of Buffalo 17 Pittsburgh 14 .
Different teams are indicated . So it might be a skip game using these methods . I am not suggesting passing on this game . This is about objective criteria on why a selection should be made .
Just a guess , it appears the Bills might be the play as 2 points is under the line , and the projected score has the Bills winning .
The Bills have a vr of 95 , and the Steelers have a vr of 94 , which indicates the Steelers winning by at least 2 points .
The projected score is Bills 16 Steelers 14 . Hmmm so a game of Buffalo 17 Pittsburgh 14 .
Different teams are indicated . So it might be a skip game using these methods . I am not suggesting passing on this game . This is about objective criteria on why a selection should be made .
Just a guess , it appears the Bills might be the play as 2 points is under the line , and the projected score has the Bills winning .
The Lions and Bears both have a vr of 101 , so that makes this game Bears - 3 .
The projected score is Lions 25 Bears 23 .
I think this game is going to be one of the tough games for me to pick . I dont have enough experience with the value rating system and the projected score sheet . My current thinking is to also run the projection on the defensive side and do a pythagro theorem thingee of sq root of ( x^2 + y^2 ) where x is offense and y is defense .
I find it noteworthy how the line , power rankings , and projected score are all so close .
On some level , I think Cutler being out has been factored into the power rankings and projected score . I will have to remind myself to check Cutler's status Sunday morning .
The Lions and Bears both have a vr of 101 , so that makes this game Bears - 3 .
The projected score is Lions 25 Bears 23 .
I think this game is going to be one of the tough games for me to pick . I dont have enough experience with the value rating system and the projected score sheet . My current thinking is to also run the projection on the defensive side and do a pythagro theorem thingee of sq root of ( x^2 + y^2 ) where x is offense and y is defense .
I find it noteworthy how the line , power rankings , and projected score are all so close .
On some level , I think Cutler being out has been factored into the power rankings and projected score . I will have to remind myself to check Cutler's status Sunday morning .
As a side note after I do my filter selections , favorites in between 4 and 7 , cover at a high rate .
The Panthers have a vr of 102 and the Niners have a vr of 109 . So that makes the potential point margin Niners by 10 . In the above posts if I used a "+" it should be "by" .
As a side note after I do my filter selections , favorites in between 4 and 7 , cover at a high rate .
The Panthers have a vr of 102 and the Niners have a vr of 109 . So that makes the potential point margin Niners by 10 . In the above posts if I used a "+" it should be "by" .
Now its time to breakdown the WASH MINN game . The Redskins have an offensive inertia of
( last 5 ) 2.50 ( last 4 ) 2.56 ( last 3 ) 2.97
I am going to grade this as an A on the offensive inertia gpa scale .
I believe this indicates the Redskins are better win to cover over the last few weeks .
The Redskins have an inertia result in the last 4 games of 1.85 loss 4.07 win 1.69 loss 4.65 win
I believe this indicates the Redskins have to play at a high level to win to cover . So if you dont think , the Redskins will play well , lower your bet strength or skip this play .
The Vikings offense inertia is ( last 5 ) 1.62 ( last 4 ) 1.44 ( last 3 ) 1.51
Basically , we have a team hovering around 1.50 , which on the offensive inertia gpa scale is a grade of D .
Last 4 inertia result 1.30 loss 0.68 loss 2.65 loss 2.42 loss
These are bad signs when you have a team achieve offense inertia of over 2 and still lose .
Based on the Redskins having the better offensive inertia , they go into the Bronze slot .
The Redskins have a tempo of - 2 and the Vikings have a tempo of 0 . No bump bet here with a negative tempo .
The Redskins have an inertia delta of 102 , while the Vikings have an inertia delta of - 129 . This is where defense inertia shows up as an indicator .
So the Redskins get bumped upto Silver level .
For those , who want to take the Vikings , I could not find a single indicator for that side , except for playing at home . Off the top of my head I wouldnt give the Vikings a significant home field advantage .
Now its time to breakdown the WASH MINN game . The Redskins have an offensive inertia of
( last 5 ) 2.50 ( last 4 ) 2.56 ( last 3 ) 2.97
I am going to grade this as an A on the offensive inertia gpa scale .
I believe this indicates the Redskins are better win to cover over the last few weeks .
The Redskins have an inertia result in the last 4 games of 1.85 loss 4.07 win 1.69 loss 4.65 win
I believe this indicates the Redskins have to play at a high level to win to cover . So if you dont think , the Redskins will play well , lower your bet strength or skip this play .
The Vikings offense inertia is ( last 5 ) 1.62 ( last 4 ) 1.44 ( last 3 ) 1.51
Basically , we have a team hovering around 1.50 , which on the offensive inertia gpa scale is a grade of D .
Last 4 inertia result 1.30 loss 0.68 loss 2.65 loss 2.42 loss
These are bad signs when you have a team achieve offense inertia of over 2 and still lose .
Based on the Redskins having the better offensive inertia , they go into the Bronze slot .
The Redskins have a tempo of - 2 and the Vikings have a tempo of 0 . No bump bet here with a negative tempo .
The Redskins have an inertia delta of 102 , while the Vikings have an inertia delta of - 129 . This is where defense inertia shows up as an indicator .
So the Redskins get bumped upto Silver level .
For those , who want to take the Vikings , I could not find a single indicator for that side , except for playing at home . Off the top of my head I wouldnt give the Vikings a significant home field advantage .
First, really good work. So who do you like tonight?
According to numbers presented here on your thread, Vegas got the line correct with -2 for wash. I like wash because of hard fought win last week vs demoralizing loss for bikes, what do you like?
First, really good work. So who do you like tonight?
According to numbers presented here on your thread, Vegas got the line correct with -2 for wash. I like wash because of hard fought win last week vs demoralizing loss for bikes, what do you like?
@nflkicker Initially my metrics have the Redskins at a Silver bet confidence level .
I made a discovery by using the last 5 , last 4 , and last 3 moving averages , as I am trying to reduce too high and too low performance spikes from 1 game . So if I take the average from those 3 metrics of Redskins 2.67 Vikings 1.52 . Using my process , this still puts the Redskins at Silver level on a bronze , silver , gold level .
@nflkicker Initially my metrics have the Redskins at a Silver bet confidence level .
I made a discovery by using the last 5 , last 4 , and last 3 moving averages , as I am trying to reduce too high and too low performance spikes from 1 game . So if I take the average from those 3 metrics of Redskins 2.67 Vikings 1.52 . Using my process , this still puts the Redskins at Silver level on a bronze , silver , gold level .
MVA5 means offensive inertia predictor from last 5 games MVA4 means offensive inertia predictor from last 4 games MVA3 means offensive inertia predictor from last 3 games
Seahawks MVA5 = 2.85 MVA4 = 3.24 MVA3 = 3.07
So Seattle's MVAR = 3.05
Falcons MVA5 = 1.53 MVA4 = 1.71 MVA3 = 1.45
Atlanta's MVAR = 1.56
This makes Seatle bet confidence Bronze
As an eyeball test Seatle's last 4 inertia result are 3.75 win 3.03 win 1.37 win 5.33 win Signs of a good team
Atlanta's last 4 inertia result last 4 inertia result 2.80 loss 2.83 won 0.72 loss 2.60 loss Signs of a bad team
I am going to stick with the tempo and inertia delta , for now , as I am just basically looking for positive levels .
Seahawks tempo is 9.5 and the Falcons have a tempo of - 5 This bumps Seahawks upto Silver .
Seattle has an inertia delta of 41 , which is positive , while Atlanta has an inertia delta of - 104 , which is a major red flag for Atlanta . Another bump up to make Seahawks Gold bet confidence .
MVA5 means offensive inertia predictor from last 5 games MVA4 means offensive inertia predictor from last 4 games MVA3 means offensive inertia predictor from last 3 games
Seahawks MVA5 = 2.85 MVA4 = 3.24 MVA3 = 3.07
So Seattle's MVAR = 3.05
Falcons MVA5 = 1.53 MVA4 = 1.71 MVA3 = 1.45
Atlanta's MVAR = 1.56
This makes Seatle bet confidence Bronze
As an eyeball test Seatle's last 4 inertia result are 3.75 win 3.03 win 1.37 win 5.33 win Signs of a good team
Atlanta's last 4 inertia result last 4 inertia result 2.80 loss 2.83 won 0.72 loss 2.60 loss Signs of a bad team
I am going to stick with the tempo and inertia delta , for now , as I am just basically looking for positive levels .
Seahawks tempo is 9.5 and the Falcons have a tempo of - 5 This bumps Seahawks upto Silver .
Seattle has an inertia delta of 41 , which is positive , while Atlanta has an inertia delta of - 104 , which is a major red flag for Atlanta . Another bump up to make Seahawks Gold bet confidence .
Me is confused about the Redskins Vikings game . The Redskins led in first downs , net yards , more runs , more rushing yards , time of poss , and won the turnover battle , but lost by a td .
Me is confused about the Redskins Vikings game . The Redskins led in first downs , net yards , more runs , more rushing yards , time of poss , and won the turnover battle , but lost by a td .
Thank you for posting your analysis of this week's games based on the system that you have developed.
Now, as to why the Redskins lost, their offense scored only 3 points in the second half and their defense could not hang on to the lead. Let's also give the Viking some credit, they could have folded given their record but they didn't.
I do have some comments on the rating you gave the Redskins for this game, per your process they had a Silver level. So, we have a team, which before this game was: 1. 1-3 on the road this season. 2. Playing a game on the road, on short rest, after a OT win in the last game (teams are 1-12 ATS in this spot), which they could have lost but for some questionable play calling by the Chargers on the goal line. 3. A defense that is in bottom fourth of rankings and the team has trouble holding onto a lead.
Just some food for thought. BOL with your picks and please do continue to post your analysis.
Thank you for posting your analysis of this week's games based on the system that you have developed.
Now, as to why the Redskins lost, their offense scored only 3 points in the second half and their defense could not hang on to the lead. Let's also give the Viking some credit, they could have folded given their record but they didn't.
I do have some comments on the rating you gave the Redskins for this game, per your process they had a Silver level. So, we have a team, which before this game was: 1. 1-3 on the road this season. 2. Playing a game on the road, on short rest, after a OT win in the last game (teams are 1-12 ATS in this spot), which they could have lost but for some questionable play calling by the Chargers on the goal line. 3. A defense that is in bottom fourth of rankings and the team has trouble holding onto a lead.
Just some food for thought. BOL with your picks and please do continue to post your analysis.
I will have to doublecheck my math on the Redskins . I knew they had a bad defense , and that should have shown up in inertia delta . I knew I was also taking a chance with my rule of avoiding games where both teams are below 20 in the Covers power rankings and Washington was 20 . The sad annoying thing is Wash had enough performance to win the game .
I will have to doublecheck my math on the Redskins . I knew they had a bad defense , and that should have shown up in inertia delta . I knew I was also taking a chance with my rule of avoiding games where both teams are below 20 in the Covers power rankings and Washington was 20 . The sad annoying thing is Wash had enough performance to win the game .
I am going to be using the rule if both teams are 2 out of the three in the Covers , Massey , or Saragrin ratings below 20 , I will skip the game , like i should have skipped the Redskins Vikings game . I believe this will provide a legit stable result .
Btw , even though I dont follow trends , they are ok posts in this thread . This is about providing objective reasons to bet with or go against a side .
I am going to be using the rule if both teams are 2 out of the three in the Covers , Massey , or Saragrin ratings below 20 , I will skip the game , like i should have skipped the Redskins Vikings game . I believe this will provide a legit stable result .
Btw , even though I dont follow trends , they are ok posts in this thread . This is about providing objective reasons to bet with or go against a side .
At the time I did this calculation , the line was Lions Bears 2.5 , and now Covers has it Lions Bears + 0 . I am not into line movements . Also the line is not that much of a factor in the cover fail outcome of my selections . Usually the favorite wins by a wide enough margin or the underdog wins . If I was betting , I would have placed the bet at the 2.5 mark .
Lions MVA5 = 1.85 MVA4 = 1.72 MVA3 = 1.79
MVAR = 1.78
Bears MVA5 = 1.85 MVA4 = 2.21 MVA3 = 2.20
MVAR = 2.08
I dont know if it is legitamely significant , but based on MVA , the Lions seem to have a small dip , and the Bears seem to be going better cover wise . Off the top of my head , I think the Lions are 1-3 or 0-4 ats the last 4 games .
At this point , I think my indicators are legit . I go with the better MVAR , and put the Bears in the Bronze category .
The Lions have a tempo - 5 and the Bears have a tempo of 10.5 Positive tempo for the Bears bumps it upto Bears Silver bet level .
I have not looked at how things go cover wise when 1 team has a positive tempo , and the other team has a negative tempo . With the Lions being on the road , a reasonable expectation is that their tempo would stay around -5 or be worse .
The Bears have an inertia delta of - 65 , while the Lions have an inertia level of - 2 . I could make some arguments to not adjust the bet level based on both teams having a negative inertia delta , but that - 65 is a red flag , so I dropping the Bears back down to Bronze .
At the time I did this calculation , the line was Lions Bears 2.5 , and now Covers has it Lions Bears + 0 . I am not into line movements . Also the line is not that much of a factor in the cover fail outcome of my selections . Usually the favorite wins by a wide enough margin or the underdog wins . If I was betting , I would have placed the bet at the 2.5 mark .
Lions MVA5 = 1.85 MVA4 = 1.72 MVA3 = 1.79
MVAR = 1.78
Bears MVA5 = 1.85 MVA4 = 2.21 MVA3 = 2.20
MVAR = 2.08
I dont know if it is legitamely significant , but based on MVA , the Lions seem to have a small dip , and the Bears seem to be going better cover wise . Off the top of my head , I think the Lions are 1-3 or 0-4 ats the last 4 games .
At this point , I think my indicators are legit . I go with the better MVAR , and put the Bears in the Bronze category .
The Lions have a tempo - 5 and the Bears have a tempo of 10.5 Positive tempo for the Bears bumps it upto Bears Silver bet level .
I have not looked at how things go cover wise when 1 team has a positive tempo , and the other team has a negative tempo . With the Lions being on the road , a reasonable expectation is that their tempo would stay around -5 or be worse .
The Bears have an inertia delta of - 65 , while the Lions have an inertia level of - 2 . I could make some arguments to not adjust the bet level based on both teams having a negative inertia delta , but that - 65 is a red flag , so I dropping the Bears back down to Bronze .
The big question about the Panthers numbers are they legit , with beating upon poor teams . I am going to say a yes as compared to a strong yes . They have demonstrated a high level of performance across the mva spectrum , but it was against bad teams .
Keep in mind the Niners have also beaten some bad teams over the same period .
The big picture is we have A+ gpa going up against A+ gpa . Since the Niners are the home team , we start with them . And a reasonable expectation is that the Panthers will drop a notch or two , performance wise .
At this point , if you want to take the Panthers and the points , it is an ok bet , as you have evidence for that side .
The Niners have a tempo of 11.5 , and the Panthers have a tempo of 14 . These are good signs for either side .
The Niners have an inertia delta of 213 , and the Panthers have an inertia delta of 223 . Still good signs for both sides .
The big question about the Panthers numbers are they legit , with beating upon poor teams . I am going to say a yes as compared to a strong yes . They have demonstrated a high level of performance across the mva spectrum , but it was against bad teams .
Keep in mind the Niners have also beaten some bad teams over the same period .
The big picture is we have A+ gpa going up against A+ gpa . Since the Niners are the home team , we start with them . And a reasonable expectation is that the Panthers will drop a notch or two , performance wise .
At this point , if you want to take the Panthers and the points , it is an ok bet , as you have evidence for that side .
The Niners have a tempo of 11.5 , and the Panthers have a tempo of 14 . These are good signs for either side .
The Niners have an inertia delta of 213 , and the Panthers have an inertia delta of 223 . Still good signs for both sides .
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